Who will win the UK election ?

padington

Generali wrote: »

Oh yes. Plus John Bercow. I think it's fair to say he'd support the Tories. Does the Speaker get to vote?

He votes to break dead lock on tie breakers but convention has it he should always vote to have more time to vote or to side with the status quo if more time isn't available.

Which set the precedence for chairs on other boards. Says wiki.

purch

Generali wrote: »

Plus John Bercow. I think it's fair to say he'd support the Tories.

Knowing Bercow, he'd probably support anyone but :eek:

cepheus

Generali wrote: »

Oh yes. Plus John Bercow. I think it's fair to say he'd support the Tories. Does the Speaker get to vote?

Obviously you're not up with UK politics! He's hated by the Tories, because he moderates Cameron's theatrics during PMs question time.

MPs hurled abuse at Mr Hague for allegedly conspiring with Prime Minister David Cameron to oust Mr Bercow, who is unpopular with much of the Tory leadership.

A Conservative plot to oust Speaker John Bercow was defeated in extraordinary scenes in the Commons this afternoon.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/watch-tearful-john-bercow-saved-5405091

Generali

cepheus wrote: »

Obviously you're not up with UK politics! He's hated by the Tories, because he moderates Cameron's theatrics during PMs question time.



http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/watch-tearful-john-bercow-saved-5405091

Fair enough. I did hear about that as it goes. I also completely forgot about it

Moby

Bercow has been a good speaker for supporting the interests of the backbencher against the control of the party machines.
The DUP are not automatic tory camp followers. They have their own agenda. Labour clearly has more flexibility to form a govmt at present, The Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru are all to the left of Labour and would never support the Tories. The Lib Dems have been badly damaged by coalition politics and the 'left wing' will have more influence than the 'right wing' during their internal debate after the election. Clegg selling re-entering the coalition is to me a hard sell. It looks like UKIP will have 2-3 seats at the most. Also forgotten that in 2010 Labour had it's worst ever electoral result with a vote share down to about 29% and still the Tories couldn't win outright. Cameron failed to force the electoral boundary changes through so Labour start with an advantage due to this. This means the Tories need to be polling around 37%, (with a gap of at least 6%) with Labour, to stand a chance. Labour is clearly going to do better than 2010, the question is by how much!

Moby

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

I think this is the best site I've come across, for those interested. More interesting in fact is the ongoing comments section underneath which is populated by many professional psephologists who are expected to comment in an impartial, scientific way.

cepheus

Generali wrote: »

Fair enough. I did hear about that as it goes. I also completely forgot about it

PS do you think that would qualify as stabbing one of your own in the back?

cepheus

Moby wrote: »

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

I think this is the best site I've come across, for those interested. More interesting in fact is the ongoing comments section underneath which is populated by many professional psephologists who are expected to comment in an impartial, scientific way.

Yes I follow this, but it always seems to be late posting Labour leads! Obviously my imagination. For a more up to date list follow Wiki, or even faster, Twitter feeds of the pollster reporters.

Generali

Moby wrote: »

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

I think this is the best site I've come across, for those interested. More interesting in fact is the ongoing comments section underneath which is populated by many professional psephologists who are expected to comment in an impartial, scientific way.

I agree, it's a great site. The comments are filled with the usual bile etc IMHO, albeit from people who clearly know a thing or two!

Generali

cepheus wrote: »

Yes I follow this, but it always seems to be late posting Labour leads! Obviously my imagination. For a more up to date list follow Wiki, or even faster, Twitter feeds of the pollster reporters.

LOL. Funnily enough I always feel he has a bit of a Labour bias! That probably means he's pretty much straight down the line.