Who will win the UK election ?

Generali

Moby wrote: »

Interesting poll just published by Ashcroft of 10 marginals requiring a swing of 5% to turn them labour from tory. Labour is ahead in 3, 2 are tied, tories lead in 5 but by small margins in most of them. This is good news for Labour if it can break into tory seats with a 5% swing!

Ashcroft is upsetting Tory grandees apparently as this info is helping the enemy.

michaels

Moby wrote: »

Interesting poll just published by Ashcroft of 10 marginals requiring a swing of 5% to turn them labour from tory. Labour is ahead in 3, 2 are tied, tories lead in 5 but by small margins in most of them. This is good news for Labour if it can break into tory seats with a 5% swing!

I thought they just confirmwed current polling which is Labour as largest number of seats but Lab+SNP a little short of majority so as currently stands lab+lib with SNP C&S most likely govt?

Moby

michaels wrote: »

I thought they just confirmwed current polling which is Labour as largest number of seats but Lab+SNP a little short of majority so as currently stands lab+lib with SNP C&S most likely govt?

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/04/lord-ashcroft-in-ten-marginals-that-the-conservatives-hold-over-labour-i-find-them-ahead-in-five.html
I think it's interesting because it indicates what could be happening on the ground in the marginals because swing is unlikely to be uniform across the country. Local incumbency etc can be measured to some extent?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection
Latest overall seat projection.

Generali

Moby wrote: »

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/04/lord-ashcroft-in-ten-marginals-that-the-conservatives-hold-over-labour-i-find-them-ahead-in-five.html
I think it's interesting because it indicates what could be happening on the ground in the marginals because swing is unlikely to be uniform across the country. Local incumbency etc can be measured to some extent?.

Well for a start there can't be a uniform Lab to SNP swing in Scotland because if the polls are right a uniform swing would mean some Labour MPs would need to end up with a negative vote!

Moby

Generali wrote: »

Well for a start there can't be a uniform Lab to SNP swing in Scotland because if the polls are right a uniform swing would mean some Labour MPs would need to end up with a negative vote!

:)V true but the SNP have already said they won't support a tory Govmt so the issue remaining is the seats in England.?

Cyberman60

Moby wrote: »

Interesting poll just published by Ashcroft of 10 marginals requiring a swing of 5% to turn them labour from tory. Labour is ahead in 3, 2 are tied, tories lead in 5 but by small margins in most of them. This is good news for Labour if it can break into tory seats with a 5% swing!

Awful news for the country though !!

Over 5 Billion a year goes to migrants in Working Tax Credits which is almost what we need for the NHS. Do we really need to be subsidising the rest of the world to work here ?

90 Billion deficit and rising if Labour get in !!

Cyberman60

antrobus wrote: »

Sort of illustrates the kind of problem we have here. One minute we have a poll showing a 6 point Labour lead, and the next minute we have a poll showing a 6 point Conservative lead.

They can't both be right.:)

They can because they are just asking different people.

Sapphire

Have either the Tories or Labour 'pledged' to do anything to curb immigration, particularly from outside Europe? This is a major issue with voters and a huge worry to many people. Going to any of the major London hospitals, as I've had to do quite a lot recently, it is obvious what a huge proportion of 'patients' are recent arrivals from outside Europe (and not educated ones who could benefit this country).

As far as I can see, both major parties have just ignored the issue completely. It is very difficult to know who to vote for – it all just seems to be such a mess…

Cyberman60 wrote: »

Awful news for the country though !!

Over 5 Billion a year goes to migrants in Working Tax Credits which is almost what we need for the NHS. Do we really need to be subsidising the rest of the world to work here ?

90 Billion deficit and rising if Labour get in !!

zagubov

Generali wrote: »

Interesting seats prediction for Scotland from ICM:

Labour 1
SNP 47
LibDem 2
Con 9

As I've bored everybody to death with, I have my doubts that the SNP will get that many seats.

If the Tories increase to 9? Let's just say I'd be *ahem* somewhat surprised. :rotfl:

Generali

zagubov wrote: »

As I've bored everybody to death with, I have my doubts that the SNP will get that many seats.

If the Tories increase to 9? Let's just say I'd be *ahem* somewhat surprised. :rotfl:

I'm merely the messenger. Don't forget however that the gap between Lab and SNP at the last general election was less than the gap between yes and no in the referendum.