The 2015 HAMISH MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

ging84

i got 2 out of 7 and mine were entirely made up

padington

Generali wrote: »

I'd love to say that it was because the SNP are such a massive contra-indicator that simply taking the opposite position to them will make you money

The reality is that I saw the huge amounts of supply coming onstream and what was going on in OPEC and couldn't see what was going to support prices in the face of all that. It'll get worse before it gets better for oilies too.

How long do you think oil could be cheap ? I'm hoping to move to Canada in 4 years and wondering how things might play out.

Generali

padington wrote: »

How long do you think oil could be cheap ? I'm hoping to move to Canada in 4 years and wondering how things might play out.

I've no idea really but I don't see a serious recovery in the price for the next couple of years. Not until some of the smaller marginal players are forced out.

In the longer term the problem oil prices face are COP21 and Global warming. I wonder if the price will ever come back above perhaps $50 or $60/bbl.

the_flying_pig

i don't really understand how aberdeen house prices can only be slightly down.

unless maybe HPI has replaced oil as the engine room of the region's economy?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_flying_pig wrote: »

i don't really understand how aberdeen house prices can only be slightly down.

unless maybe HPI has replaced oil as the engine room of the region's economy?

Average prices are down around 1% or so in the last 12 months.

http://www.acadata.co.uk/Your%20Move%20Acad%20Scotland%20HPI%20News%20Release%20October%2015.pdf

A handful of newbuilds were reduced from truly eye-watering, kite flying prices down to just merely absurd prices.

Plenty of stock going on at 2007 + 50% asking prices, then being reduced, and selling for 2007 + 35% prices.

Rents are down a fair bit more, around 15%, but even at that they're still nearly double 2007 rents

I expect we'll see another year to 18 months of small declines.

But given prices are way over 2007 levels on average and still would be even if they crashed by another 25%, not sure anyone really cares....

Except Crashy of course.

That poor lad is obsessed.;)

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Average prices are down around 1% or so in the last 12 months.

http://www.acadata.co.uk/Your%20Move%20Acad%20Scotland%20HPI%20News%20Release%20October%2015.pdf

A handful of newbuilds were reduced from truly eye-watering, kite flying prices down to just merely absurd prices.

Plenty of stock going on at 2007 + 50% asking prices, then being reduced, and selling for 2007 + 35% prices.

Rents are down a fair bit more, around 15%, but even at that they're still nearly double 2007 rents

I expect we'll see another year to 18 months of small declines.

But given prices are way over 2007 levels on average and still would be even if they crashed by another 25%, not sure anyone really cares....

Except Crashy of course.

That poor lad is obsessed.;)

So I am the only one interested in what is happening in Aberdeen, and people there are not in the slightest bit worried by what is happening? I seriously worry about you sometimes Hamish.

vivatifosi

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So I am the only one interested in what is happening in Aberdeen, and people there are not in the slightest bit worried by what is happening? I seriously worry about you sometimes Hamish.

In a forum that is regularly populated by probably less than 100 of MSE's millions of viewers and members, given that only a few of those are in Scotland, let alone Aberdeen, I'd say you probably are the only one interested.

To the best of my knowledge, Hamish has never suggested that he is over leveraged or over invested in the Aberdeen market, nor that he was planning a permanent move away, so I guess if prices fall there he will just do the same as the rest of us and carry on with life.

System

vivatifosi wrote: »

In a forum that is regularly populated by probably less than 100 of MSE's millions of viewers and members, given that only a few of those are in Scotland, let alone Aberdeen, I'd say you probably are the only one interested.

To the best of my knowledge, Hamish has never suggested that he is over leveraged or over invested in the Aberdeen market, nor that he was planning a permanent move away, so I guess if prices fall there he will just do the same as the rest of us and carry on with life.

More than 1 in every 20 of his posts contain the word "aberdeen".

Obsessed.

Crashy_Time

Joeskeppi wrote: »

More than 1 in every 20 of his posts contain the word "aberdeen".

Obsessed.

Says the person who spends his time counting people`s posts.

Crashy_Time

vivatifosi wrote: »

In a forum that is regularly populated by probably less than 100 of MSE's millions of viewers and members, given that only a few of those are in Scotland, let alone Aberdeen, I'd say you probably are the only one interested.

To the best of my knowledge, Hamish has never suggested that he is over leveraged or over invested in the Aberdeen market, nor that he was planning a permanent move away, so I guess if prices fall there he will just do the same as the rest of us and carry on with life.

Pretty silly post IMO, don`t you know how important the North Sea has been to the UK economy, or that people from all over the UK are employed (or were employed) in the North Sea oil sector? That means mortgages and BTL`s in Aberdeen and various parts of the UK relying on North Sea oil money have just had their oxygen supply pulled. Maybe you just don`t like engaging with the realities of what a rent and house price crash looks like for fear of denting your own rose tinted view?