Debate House Prices


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The 2015 HAMISH MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

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  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
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    Generali wrote: »
    The NHS is almost entirely uncharged. Users pay prescription charges which bear no resemblance to the cost of the drugs used. Apart from that the only cost I've come across is time.

    If you agree that there is an ongoing promise in that all political parties have made a commitment that the NHS will remain 'free at the point of delivery' then that will have to be paid for in future in some way.

    A promise to pay money in future is a liability. Either there is an asset somewhere which can be used to pay that liability (e.g. a pot of money or a fund of some sort) or there isn't. I am not aware of any sort of asset that is available to fund the liability that is the future cost of the NHS and so that is an unfunded liability.

    I'd be very happy to understand that my sister's and niece's healthcare can be paid for from a pot of money I have never heard of. If that cash doesn't exist then the future liabilities are unfunded and I fear that my sister or perhaps her daughter will potentially face a life without the NHS having been unable to save for their own futures due to the very high taxes being paid to support a welfare state that is unlikely to be affordable in its current configuration.





    Which NHS are we discussing here? If it's the UK's National Health Service you are wrong.



    however is the expectation there will be health service in 30 years time, different from the expectation we will have
    -a food supply
    -heating and lighting
    -transport
    -clothing
    -a defense force
    -a police and justice system

    yet there is no 'fund' to pay for any of these.
    obviously they will be paid out of goods and services generated at that time just like the health service: no different at all.

    you speak like an accountant and not an economist
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    CLAPTON wrote: »
    however is the expectation there will be health service in 30 years time, different from the expectation we will have
    -a food supply
    -heating and lighting
    -transport
    -clothing
    -a defense force
    -a police and justice system

    yet there is no 'fund' to pay for any of these.
    obviously they will be paid out of goods and services generated at that time just like the health service: no different at all.

    you speak like an accountant and not an economist

    Check out the relative costs of those things and then tell me I'm wrong.
  • Nikkster
    Nikkster Posts: 6,391 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Generali wrote: »
    The NHS is almost entirely uncharged. Users pay prescription charges which bear no resemblance to the cost of the drugs used.
    Which NHS are we discussing here? If it's the UK's National Health Service you are wrong.

    I took 'individual's ability to pay' as meaning 'individual's ability to pay income tax/ NI etc.'

    As for prescription charges - and I have no idea what the answer to this is - I guess that a number of the drugs actually cost less than the prescription charge? I guess this could be a tiny fraction rather than the majority though. As I said, no idea.
  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Generali wrote: »
    Check out the relative costs of those things and then tell me I'm wrong.

    irrelevant

    future goods and services are produced by future generations

    there has NEVER been any other way

    are you sure you every studied economics? sure it wasn't accountancy or book keeping?

    and even worst that guy that believes in the productivity lump of labour fallacy thanked you: be concerned!
  • Gangaweed
    Gangaweed Posts: 169 Forumite
    Clapton sprouting more labour tosh as normal.

    On that subject, if we end up with a lab/lib coalition, I predict disaster. Maybe ed will outlaw bacon sarnies so no one else suffers the same humiliation that he did.
  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 4 January 2015 at 11:28AM
    Gangaweed wrote: »
    Clapton sprouting more labour tosh as normal.

    On that subject, if we end up with a lab/lib coalition, I predict disaster. Maybe ed will outlaw bacon sarnies so no one else suffers the same humiliation that he did.

    more of your divisive nonsense

    Everyone knows that bacon sarnies are now un-affordable to the vast majority of hard working families and the the rising level of debt to pay for them is unsustainable: in the long term this will cause the UK to go bust unless we start to build a 'sarnies' fund to enable future generations to enjoy what boomers have stolen from them. George will be announcing special tax reliefs to encourage hard working families to develop their very own 'sarnie funds'. Some will say this is simply electioneering but you know it makes sense.
  • vivatifosi
    vivatifosi Posts: 18,746 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Mortgage-free Glee! PPI Party Pooper
    mayonnaise wrote: »
    - Alonso wins F1 title with McLaren.

    I'd love to see that. Thanks for forecasting it mayonnaise. He is an outstanding driver who makes dogs of cars look good. As witnessed by Vettel saying that one of the Ferraris he tested was unforgivable, even though Alonso came second in the championship in it.
    Please stay safe in the sun and learn the A-E of melanoma: A = asymmetry, B = irregular borders, C= different colours, D= diameter, larger than 6mm, E = evolving, is your mole changing? Most moles are not cancerous, any doubts, please check next time you visit your GP.
  • antrobus
    antrobus Posts: 17,386 Forumite
    edited 4 January 2015 at 11:58AM
    Generali wrote: »
    ... Users pay prescription charges which bear no resemblance to the cost of the drugs used. .

    Damned right there.

    NHS charges £8.10 a pop for generics that cost them about a quid. If that.

    Edit: of course; NHS England charges £8.10 a pop. NHS Wales, Scotland, and NI don't charge anything at all, I believe.
  • Jason74
    Jason74 Posts: 650 Forumite
    edited 4 January 2015 at 12:08PM
    Well the last few years predictions threads have worked out well, but 2015 will be much, much harder to call correctly.

    The outcome of the election will determine much this year, and it's simply too close to call, but we'll have a go anyway....

    Broadly a year of continued economic recovery, albeit with political uncertainty in the first half causing a bit of disruption.


    Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.


    As last year, I'd agree with most of your predictions here. The only addition I'd make is that I think London prices will actually drop back slightly this year, probably by around 3-5%. Not huge by any means (and those waiting for a crash will be wishing they hadn't bothered), but I think that there will be a bit of froth coming off the top this year due to a combination of decreased foreign demand, general political uncertainty, and the sheer level of prices.


    I'd also hope that the MMR review leaves things very much alone. MMR was a much needed change imho, and stops us returning to the excesses of the years running up to the crisis. The balance in the mortgage market is about right at the moment (for the first time in at least 20 odd years imho), and should be left well alone.
  • Jason74 wrote: »
    As last year, I'd agree with most of your predictions here. The only addition I'd make is that I think London prices will actually drop back slightly this year, probably by around 3-5%. Not huge by any means (and those waiting for a crash will be wishing they hadn't bothered), but I think that there will be a bit of froth coming off the top this year due to a combination of decreased foreign demand, general political uncertainty, and the sheer level of prices.

    Wouldn't surprise me.

    Housing markets and house prices are not restricted to only two modes, full-on booms or crashes, they are more than capable of years with gentle rises or slight falls as the last few years have shown.

    Plenty of areas that lost a few percent one year and gained a few percent the next, or vice versa.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
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