The 2015 HAMISH MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Well the last few years predictions threads have worked out well, but 2015 will be much, much harder to call correctly.

The outcome of the election will determine much this year, and it's simply too close to call, but we'll have a go anyway....

Broadly a year of continued economic recovery, albeit with political uncertainty in the first half causing a bit of disruption.

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +1 to +5%. This is a significant slowdown in the growth rate from 2014, but it will still be growth.

2. FTB numbers will plateau as the political uncertainty affects the housing market.

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 0.5% and 1.5% for most of the year.

4. Unemployment will fall to around 5%

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%

6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will plateau at around current levels for most of the year

7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2014 and reach another new record high

8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE continues to close, London HPI will take a breather and decrease from current levels

9. Aberdeen house prices will soften a bit, as oil remains lower than was the case in previous years, but any effect will be relatively small and temporary. Brent Oil will trade in a range from $55 to $75 for most of this year.

10. Economic recovery will continue with GDP +2.0% for the year

11. Politics:

The Lib Dems will not lose as many seats as you'd think from looking at the headline poll numbers, as their support is concentrated in small areas. They will still lose nearly half their seats.

The Tories will benefit from a sharpening of focus at the prospect of Labour winning and some UKIP defectors will come home, David Cameron is likely to remain as PM but only in another minority govt or coalition.

Labour support will continue to decrease as it has done over the last 12 months, with the SNP taking most of the Scottish seats currently held by Labour. Ironically this may cost Labour the election and give us 5 more years of Tory led govt.

UKIP will take enough votes from the Tories to cost them an outright majority, but will not have enough seats to hold the balance of power or form a coalition as their support is too geographically spread out, so also quite ironically, this may cost the Kippers their referendum on Europe.

This one really is too close to call, and the above are best guess at the moment.

I don't think a Labour/SNP coalition is workable, I don't think UKIP will have enough seats to form one with the Tories, so that leaves a Lib Dem/Tory or Lib Dem/Labour coalition (whether formal or through supply arrangements) as the likeliest outcome.

Which one of those we end up with depends largely on which of the Tories or Labour ends up with most seats.

12. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year

13. Private sector wage rises will exceed CPI

And as (perhaps wishful thinking) outliers.....

14. Politicians have a rare moment of common sense and form a 'Grand Coalition' between Labour and Tories, cementing in place centrist economic policies for the long term, and marginalising all the small upstart parties. Causing as a result the longest period of growth and stability the UK has ever seen.

15. The MMR review will ease off the historically abnormal and too-tight restrictions put in place that continue to force most of the young generation to rent through ongoing mortgage rationing.

Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.

purch

1. Unchanged

2. Errrrrrr

3. 0.2 % to 1 %

4. 5.3 %

5. 0.5 % all year

6. Um

7. Er

8. Who cares ?

9. As above

10. 2 % sounds good but will be impacted by contraction in the EU

11. Labour/Lib Dem/Green/SNP coalition

12. Wage rises will be significantly higher than 2014

13. I would hope so.

14. Are you bonkers ??

15. No idea what you are rambling on about.

purch

.....and

16. FTSE 100 will range 6,430 to 7,390 in 2015

17. GBP will range 1.4875 to 1.6325 against the USD & 1.2800 to 1.4500 against the EUR

17.5 Brent Crude Spot will trade at $ 98 as it's 2015 high

18. Chelsea will win the quadruple of Champions League, Premier League, FA Cup and League Cup

19. New Zealand will beat Wales by 27-25 in the Rugby World Cup final

20. Kevin Pieterson will hit 156 not out on his recall to the England Test side :eek:

Generali

Big themes of the year will be falling oil prices, booming US economy and Emerging Market turmoil.

1. House prices up 5-10%
2. No idea about FTBs. Probably more crackpot schemes to 'help'
3. Very low inflation all year quite possibly going negative
4. Unemployment about 5% by year end with increasing immigration meaning employment is well above record highs
5. Interest rates rising a little in the UK and US. No unwinding of QE.
6. Increase in mortgage lending especially to the BTL sector
7. Rents up/down in line with CPI
8. HPI seen in most of the country (perhaps ex-Aberdeen?)
9. See 8
10. GDP ahead strongly in the 3-4% growth range on the back of low oil prices and strong consumer demand
11. Labour to lose seats in the North to UKIP (or to LD/Tories as a result of the UKIP vote). UKIP to end with a couple of seats at the very most. SNP to gain a strong show in Scotland.
12. Wages up in both nominal and real terms
13. In the private sector
14. Seems unlikely although a Government of National Unity to keep out the Nationalists is much more likely than many would have you believe.
15. BTL continue to buy at the expense of FTBs.

Generali

purch wrote: »

.....and

16. FTSE 100 will range 6,430 to 7,390 in 2015

17. GBP will range 1.4875 to 1.6325 against the USD & 1.2800 to 1.4500 against the EUR

17.5 Brent Crude Spot will trade at $ 98 as it's 2015 high

18. Chelsea will win the quadruple of Champions League, Premier League, FA Cup and League Cup

19. New Zealand will beat Wales by 27-25 in the Rugby World Cup final

20. Kevin Pieterson will hit 156 not out on his recall to the England Test side :eek:

16. FTSE350 falling a little on bad news for foreign mining stocks. Sovereign and company defaults in the Emerging Markets causing problems in the Fixed Income markets.

17. Brent Crude to continue to trend downwards. People start talking about dollar/pound parity. Never happens.

18. LOL. After getting stuffed by 'The Mighty Tottingham' you'll be lucky. !!!!*al to miss out on the Wenger Trophy and Arsene to be hung from a lamppost in Dolphin Square having been choked on prawn sandwiches. Man Utd to win the league having been given an average of 4 penalties a match.

19. England to win the World Cup final 3-0 in a display of forward power and possession kicking football via an accidentally kicked drop goal while trying to kick for field position. The scrum and lineout are subsequently banned from Rugby Union and Stuart Lancaster is exiled to Samoa where he trains the Samoan rugby team to a record run of 7s victories by the unusual method known as the 'unending bloody rolling maul'.

20. Kevin Pietersen will continue to moan on and on about how dreadfully he was treated. Eventually an audience member on Question Time reminds him that you'd get sacked from most jobs if you called your boss what he called Strauss. Goes on to manage the England Rugby team who go on to lose with flair, panache and silly quasi-Islander tattoos.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Generali wrote: »

a Government of National Unity to keep out the Nationalists is much more likely than many would have you believe.

Indeed it is.

BTL continue to buy at the expense of FTBs.

This is a recurring topic of conversation on these boards.

The current situation will become politically unsustainable at some point.

theEnd

I'll give it a go:

1. House prices will fall. Somewhere around 10% rather than a crash. Already started.

2. Inflation will remain below 2%. Without real growth, there's no pressure on prices.

3. Unemployment steady, but wage growth remains lower than inflation.

4. Interest rates will remain below 1.5%, even if US start to raise (which I don't think they will)

5. Rents will continue to fall in real terms. Linked to wages.

6. Economic recovery flat, but more people will begin to question what GDP is and who QE helped.

7. Tories gain (very) narrow majority. UKIP collapse after a few too many mistakes. Labour regroup after very poor election. Greens do very well.

Edit to Add:
8. Oil will rise, eventually. Odd political games being played at the moment.

9. Pound and FTSE largely flat.

BobQ

21 UK Wealth inequality continues to grow with the top 1% owning nearly 60% of the nation's wealth. North South disparity again increases.

22 Personal borrowing begins to rise as people misinterpret the political messages that the economy is improving.

23 UKIP takes enough support from other parties to get 7 seats. Within three months two of their MPs are forced to resign following revelations of their dubious past.

24 Following a huge campaign in Sheffield, Clegg is defeated in his constituency and resigns as Lib Dem leader.

25 Fixed term parliaments are abolished as it is evident that a viable coalition is unlikely to be sustainable.

26 A third UKIP policy emerges: parity of MP expenses with MEPs


11 Liberal Democrats retain 30 seats due to tactical voting, Labour forms a coalition with Lib Dems, with tacit support from SNP in return for assurances that there will be no EU referendum, legislation is fully enacted on the devolution. By year end Milliband's popularity has soared beyond that of the new leader of the opposition, Teresa May.

chewmylegoff

My predictions are:

1) hamish will be "proved right"* again for the 100th year in a row.

2) shakey will write over 16,500,000 words on the subject of potential Scottish independence.

3) by the end of 2015 oil will have fallen below $0 a barrel.

4) it was Ian Beale in the conservatory with the lead piping.

5) Ed Milliband will see out 2015 teaching English as a foreign language in Tunisia.


*= I am deliberately not going to define what this means in order to ensure that I can just say my prediction was proved right.

Generali

chewmylegoff wrote: »

shakey will write over 16,500,000 words on the subject of potential Scottish independence.

I don't understand this bit. Are you saying that the Internet in Scotland will be turned off in mid-April or are you being conservative in your prediction?

vivatifosi

1. House prices: agree with indices rising +1 to +5%. I think the market for luxury property in London will soften and possibly drop back from peak because Russian oligarchs and mega-rich Chinese people both have economies that are doing less well. There will be some capital flight from Russia, but in general exchange rates will make it harder to get out (if not already stored in dollars).

2. FTB numbers: will fall back a bit initially. Hard to call what will happen beyond election.

3. Inflation - agree with Hamish's predictions. Hopefully wages will actually rise by more than that for a change.

4. Unemployment - 5.5%

5. Interest rates: .75%

6. Mortgage lending down slightly.

7. Rents will go up, poss by more than Hamish is anticipating if BTL mortgages cost more - will be passed on if interest rates rise.

8. Don't know.

9. Brent crude av for year $65.

10. GDP +2.1%

11. Tories will win, coalition again. Not sure with whom. Hopefully we won't be done up like a bunch of kippers.

12/13: I agree.

14: I'd love to see it, but I'll put that one down to your irrational exuberance H.

15: Don't know.

Now onto Purch's list....

16: Don't think the FTSE will go that high. It feels like it's getting there and then falls back. Will be delighted if I'm wrong though.

17. GBP range: 1.52 to 1.6325 if Labour get in, 1.65 if Tories get back (providing we don't start talking about leaving the EU. Max against the Euro will be 1.37.

Now my predictions:

18. Greece will still be in the Eurozone btw:D.

19. ISIS will suffer losses in Iraq and Syria, but the terrorist threat will be higher in Europe.

20. Food prices as a whole will continue to plateau or fall due to growth of discount supermarkets; but at least one foodstuff will suffer poor harvests with costs rising significantly as a result.

21. Leading on from that, commodity prices as a whole will be soft. Hard to see where new demand drivers will come from.

22. Once we get the election out of the way, talk will turn to the long term funding of the NHS.

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won't finish 32nd out of 32 (that one's for purch).