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The 2015 HAMISH MCTAVISH Predictions Thread
Comments
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Better hope that immigrants want to keep coming to the UK.
This is one of the most bankable of predictions.
Consider the choice. Safe and predictable UK, or a middle East seeing large movements of people and often violent uprisings. Russia is no picnic. Africa is as impoverished as it ever was.
Even continental Europe is struggling. The number of Spaniards I see coming here with good IT skills is evidence of the problems back home regards employment.
You could argue that we can increasingly cherry pick those we want. We don't need masses of unskilled people who would cost money to upskill.0 -
You could argue that we can increasingly cherry pick those we want. We don't need masses of unskilled people who would cost money to upskill.
You could also argue that as EU migration has been a significant net fiscal benefit to the UK, in the quantities we've had, and with the mix of skill sets of the migrants that have come, that the system/free-market is working well in that regard.
If you're going to be concerned about the financial impact of migration, then it turns out the non-EU migrants, that we can and do 'cherry pick', are not a net fiscal benefit and do take out more than they put in, albeit not as badly as the native born.
We're apparently not very good at this 'Cherry Picking' though.....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »This is a recurring topic of conversation on these boards.
The current situation will become politically unsustainable at some point.
just using rough numbers
27m homes
2.7m homes have to Private rent (students, people living away from home close to work on weekdays, temp rentals, etc) eg they dont mind and need this service
not long ago, everybody either owned or rented off the state, those that didn't were the 2.7m homes that wanted or needed PR
from a social point perhaps that was the peak good in housing
now its something like
27m homes
2.7m homes PR who want/need it
2.7m homes PR who would rather be OO or at least Social rent
so the "swing" has been 2.7m households. That is a HUGE swing in such a short amount of time but still probably insignificant politically as they are only 10% of households and perhaps most of them dont even know that their plight is fundamentally down to a lack of building (eg renters that are pro "preserving the countryside" aka not building sufficient homes)
which might that change, i think when PR that dont want to be PR hit ~6m households.
that will happen around 2030 if things go on as they are
and the only solution to reverse it, is to build more. everything else is a fake temp plaster that wont work.
so i suspect in the uk there will be under building and more expensive housing in real terms until ~2030 at which point the housing problem will be so big and impact so many people that there will be a true housing building boom which will SLOWLY reverse things back to the social peak good that is circa 10% PR and 90% OO/Social0 -
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just using rough numbers
27m homes
2.7m homes have to Private rent (students, people living away from home close to work on weekdays, temp rentals, etc) eg they dont mind and need this service
not long ago, everybody either owned or rented off the state, those that didn't were the 2.7m homes that wanted or needed PR
from a social point perhaps that was the peak good in housing
now its something like
27m homes
2.7m homes PR who want/need it
2.7m homes PR who would rather be OO or at least Social rent
so the "swing" has been 2.7m households. That is a HUGE swing in such a short amount of time but still probably insignificant politically as they are only 10% of households and perhaps most of them dont even know that their plight is fundamentally down to a lack of building (eg renters that are pro "preserving the countryside" aka not building sufficient homes)
which might that change, i think when PR that dont want to be PR hit ~6m households.
that will happen around 2030 if things go on as they are
and the only solution to reverse it, is to build more. everything else is a fake temp plaster that wont work.
so i suspect in the uk there will be under building and more expensive housing in real terms until ~2030 at which point the housing problem will be so big and impact so many people that there will be a true housing building boom which will SLOWLY reverse things back to the social peak good that is circa 10% PR and 90% OO/Social
Dont forget all the normal house buyers will increasingly blame the BTL brigade on high prices which will also add fuel to the fire but the first target will be forigners because, we don't like them coming over here, giving us all their money.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
the first target will be forigners because, we don't like them coming over here, giving us all their money.
Indeed.....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »Clever people that can spell you mean? Put `em all on a diet, that will cut down the waste.
I don't think you can criticise spelling when you can't operate basic punctuation marks.This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com0 -
1. House prices will rise. 3-5%
2. FTB numbers fall as BTL grows
3. Inflation will remain in a range between 0% and 1.0% for most of the year.
4. yup
5. Interest rates will end the year at 0.25%
6. yup
7. yup
8. yup
9. Oil will fall below $50 a barrel, the Saudi's make money at $30 per barrel for example, they will not cut production
10. Economic recovery will slow, deflation to blame
11. Politics:
bothered
12. with deflation, no wage inflation expected
13. No
14. no idea
15. The MMR review will stabalise the mortgage market
16. heavily discounted cars will soon be available again
Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.Plan
1) Get most competitive Lifetime Mortgage (Done)
2) Make healthy savings, spend wisely (Doing)
3) Ensure healthy pension fund - (Doing)
4) Ensure house is nice, suitable, safe, and located - (Done)
5) Keep everyone happy, healthy and entertained (Done, Doing, Going to do)0 -
As last year, I'd agree with most of your predictions here. The only addition I'd make is that I think London prices will actually drop back slightly this year, probably by around 3-5%. Not huge by any means (and those waiting for a crash will be wishing they hadn't bothered), but I think that there will be a bit of froth coming off the top this year due to a combination of decreased foreign demand, general political uncertainty, and the sheer level of prices.
I think you're right but the devil will be In the detail, prime properties will take a haircut but value properties could still offer a shrewd investment and when the next good upswing happens, people gambling on making 5% might have very well wished they hadn't.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0
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