The 2015 HAMISH MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

Crashy_Time

Actually if London slid into the sea most of the country wouldn`t notice either.

zagubov

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Actually if London slid into the sea most of the country wouldn`t notice either.

Give us a heads-up please, if you see that coming.

Crashy_Time

zagubov wrote: »

Give us a heads-up please, if you see that coming.

I wouldn`t laugh too much, City banks nearly disappeared in 2008 and any severe tidal rises are going to do for London before some other places, but the point is that most people in the country wouldn`t notice or care, did you understand the point made?

Graham_Devon

Just read this from the guardian looking back at 2015 and how we have appear to have stumbled through 2015 and come out of the other end by tinkering around just a bit more.

First we had Greece. And for a short while, the Euro itself was threatened. We avoided the worst by doing more of the same which caused the problem in the first place. Crucually though, we got rid of the political heads that were raising this issue and standing up to it. So we can now carry on and ignore the issues.

Then we had China. We still have the China issues, though much money is being pumped into the economy and as most economists will agree, the figures from China appear to be made up to a large extent - but we go with it as it avoids disaster.

Then we had the outright collapse in oil prices. Something which by all accounts, at any other time would be seen as extraordinary and cause serious issues. But today it's just something else to be patched over.

To surmise....

The optimistic way of looking at 2015 is to see it as the pivot between the long hangover that followed the Great Recession and a new era of strong growth marked by stricter control of financial markets, a new wave of inventions, and the move towards a cleaner, greener economy following the deal on climate change reached in Paris earlier this month.

The pessimistic way of looking at 2015 is to see it as a brief interlude between one crisis and the next, marked by the steady descent into deflation, populism and protectionism. Seen from this perspective, the underlying problems of the global economy – inequality, debt and financial market excess – have not gone away.

CLAPTON

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Just read this from the guardian looking back at 2015 and how we have appear to have stumbled through 2015 and come out of the other end by tinkering around just a bit more.

First we had Greece. And for a short while, the Euro itself was threatened. We avoided the worst by doing more of the same which caused the problem in the first place. Crucually though, we got rid of the political heads that were raising this issue and standing up to it. So we can now carry on and ignore the issues.

Then we had China. We still have the China issues, though much money is being pumped into the economy and as most economists will agree, the figures from China appear to be made up to a large extent - but we go with it as it avoids disaster.

Then we had the outright collapse in oil prices. Something which by all accounts, at any other time would be seen as extraordinary and cause serious issues. But today it's just something else to be patched over.

To surmise....

seems to me that we started 2015 as one of the richest countries in the world
everyone had access to clean running water, plentiful food, cheap clothing, adequate heating and lighting: most had access to foreign holidays, sports and wonderful cheap entertainment easy and access to education all all levels
we ended the year as one of the richest countries in the world.

seems a pretty uneventful year to me unless you (over) read the newspapers.

Graham_Devon

CLAPTON wrote: »

seems to me that we started 2015 as one of the richest countries in the world
everyone had access to clean running water, plentiful food, cheap clothing, adequate heating and lighting: most had access to foreign holidays, sports and wonderful cheap entertainment easy and access to education all all levels
we ended the year as one of the richest countries in the world.

seems a pretty uneventful year to me unless you (over) read the newspapers.

Every year will be pretty much uneventful if you are measuring it based on those things.

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Just read this from the guardian looking back at 2015 and how we have appear to have stumbled through 2015 and come out of the other end by tinkering around just a bit more.

First we had Greece. And for a short while, the Euro itself was threatened. We avoided the worst by doing more of the same which caused the problem in the first place. Crucually though, we got rid of the political heads that were raising this issue and standing up to it. So we can now carry on and ignore the issues.

Then we had China. We still have the China issues, though much money is being pumped into the economy and as most economists will agree, the figures from China appear to be made up to a large extent - but we go with it as it avoids disaster.

Then we had the outright collapse in oil prices. Something which by all accounts, at any other time would be seen as extraordinary and cause serious issues. But today it's just son omething else to be patched over.

To surmise....

Greece is pretty meaningless unless you're Greek from a global macro POV.

The oil price is a huge positive for the vast majority and TBH I have no idea why it's being presented as an economic calamity in the newspapers.

As for China...? Goodness only knows what's going on there. We're long fine words and very short any actual data.

Mistermeaner

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Every year will be pretty much uneventful if you are measuring it based on those things.

Then long live uneventfulness

Would you more child slaves died in the far east so that the !!!!less in the UK can buy their kappa trackies for an even lower proportion of their handouts

CLAPTON

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Every year will be pretty much uneventful if you are measuring it based on those things.

indeed so: we here are blessed with 'not much happening'

where a lot happens, they have a bad time.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +1 to +5%. This is a significant slowdown in the growth rate from 2014, but it will still be growth.

2. FTB numbers will plateau as the political uncertainty affects the housing market.

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 0.5% and 1.5% for most of the year.

4. Unemployment will fall to around 5%

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%

6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will plateau at around current levels for most of the year

7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2014 and reach another new record high

8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE continues to close, London HPI will take a breather and decrease from current levels

9. Aberdeen house prices will soften a bit, as oil remains lower than was the case in previous years, but any effect will be relatively small and temporary. Brent Oil will trade in a range from $55 to $75 for most of this year.

10. Economic recovery will continue with GDP +2.0% for the year

11. Politics:

The Lib Dems will not lose as many seats as you'd think from looking at the headline poll numbers, as their support is concentrated in small areas. They will still lose nearly half their seats.

The Tories will benefit from a sharpening of focus at the prospect of Labour winning and some UKIP defectors will come home, David Cameron is likely to remain as PM but only in another minority govt or coalition.

Labour support will continue to decrease as it has done over the last 12 months, with the SNP taking most of the Scottish seats currently held by Labour. Ironically this may cost Labour the election and give us 5 more years of Tory led govt.

UKIP will take enough votes from the Tories to cost them an outright majority, but will not have enough seats to hold the balance of power or form a coalition as their support is too geographically spread out, so also quite ironically, this may cost the Kippers their referendum on Europe.

12. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year

13. Private sector wage rises will exceed CPI


Not bad.... 12 parts Green, one part Amber, 5 parts Red

Lets see how the 2016 thread turns out.