'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Bubble_and_Squeak

robmatic wrote: »

So the market will drop enough in 4 months to get you back to the position you would have been in had you bought a year ago?

Good luck with that.

i wasn't looking to buy a year ago
i started looking at the end of 2013
i stopped looking in april beacuse we were in a bubble
todays LR figures confirm this

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

See those capital letters? That's the number that needs to go in your progress tracking spreadsheet.

Oh for a time machine.

OH MY DAYS!
you think the LR figures show sales agreed last week?
OH MY DAYS!

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

OH MY DAYS!
you think the LR figures show sales agreed last week?
OH MY DAYS!

Not at all. Land Reg do show sold prices though - they're the figures you'll need when working out the cost/ gain of delaying your purchase and renting.

It's a bit pointless having a party about knocking £100k off an asking price then finding out you paid more than the neighbours did last month.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

Not at all. Land Reg do show sold prices though - they're the figures you'll need when working out the cost/ gain of delaying your purchase and renting.

It's a bit pointless having a party about knocking £100k off an asking price then finding out you paid more than the neighbours did last month.

so, if one had bought a london property in april,
when asking prices were higher,
and houses were selling above the asking price,
and properties were selling the same day they hit the market,
and the number of properties available was around half what it is now,
one would have been better off than today
with lower asking prices
and asking prices being reduced because houses are not selling?
is this what you are suggesting?

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

so, if one had bought a london property in april,
when asking prices were higher,
and houses were selling above the asking price,
and properties were selling the same day they hit the market,
and the number of properties available was around half what it is now,
one would have been better off than today
with lower asking prices
and asking prices being reduced because houses are not selling?
is this what you are suggesting?

In the row for 'April' you go to the column headed 'price' and you put in the figure that you could've bought for. Asking prices for April are now irrelevant so forget them.

If that price is lower than the price you'd pay today then maybe you could work out for yourself if you would have been better off. Obviously you need a few other columns to include rent/ interest/ capital repaid etc.

Unfortunately your first row doesn't start in April 2014

Can't do it for you kid.

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

so, if one had bought a london property in april,
when asking prices were higher,
and houses were selling above the asking price,
and properties were selling the same day they hit the market,
and the number of properties available was around half what it is now,
one would have been better off than today
with lower asking prices
and asking prices being reduced because houses are not selling?
is this what you are suggesting?

A few sold above asking. However on average the sold price was a few percent below the asking price. There is a big gap between average asking and average selling price which means a lot of properties are priced higher than they should be and won't sell. They skew the average asking price figures and are volatile. The averagr asking price is not the same as the average asking price of a sold property. The average asking price of a property that sells is rising and sits just above the average sold price.

mystic_trev

Crashy_Time wrote: »

all you guys cowering in it against Venger, Dances with Sheeple, Bruce Banner etc. as they come in with light weapons from their rental pods and attack the dying dynasty of unsustainable prices?

I see Banner's out with his pointy hat and flaming cross over on HPC. They've all become ardent UKIP supporters. This shows you the mentality of their posters.

Bruce Banner

The ad hominem attacks, from the usual suspects, against UKIP and those who would vote for them are coming thick and fast now.

“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win.” - Mahatma Ghandi

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/200513-douglas-carswell-defects-from-tories-to-ukip-merged-threads/page-8

He's actually comparing Douglas Carswell to Mahatma Ghandi :eek:

Libber

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

let it rock, let it roll...

Well, you'll have to forgive me for missing the reference - before my time, I'm afraid.


If your thesis is that London prices peaked in April, what would you accept as evidence against? The Land Registry data lag actual transactions by around three months, Nationwide and Halifax lag by 1-2 months, and god alone knows what hometrack look at. If we see London prices increasing in the next couple of LR releases, presumably you'd concede that you were wrong? And if London has already peaked or started falling but the LR data hadn't picked up on it because of the lag, how do you explain the increase in the less laggy nationwide index - do you believe that the rest of the country is seeing strong compensatory price increases?

gbsilp

mystic_trev wrote: »

I see Banner's out with his pointy hat and flaming cross over on HPC. They've all become ardent UKIP supporters. This shows you the mentality of their posters.

Bruce Banner


http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/200513-douglas-carswell-defects-from-tories-to-ukip-merged-threads/page-8

He's actually comparing Douglas Carswell to Mahatma Ghandi :eek:

Hardly. It appears this Bruce Banner is implying that Ghandi once said something that Banner feels applies to his situation as opposed to "Douglas Carswell is comparable in stature to Mahatma Ghandi".....

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

In the row for 'April' you go to the column headed 'price' and you put in the figure that you could've bought for. Asking prices for April are now irrelevant so forget them.

If that price is lower than the price you'd pay today then maybe you could work out for yourself if you would have been better off. Obviously you need a few other columns to include rent/ interest/ capital repaid etc.

Unfortunately your first row doesn't start in April 2014

Can't do it for you kid.

i don't think you understand how the market was in london around april.
houses were selling before they came on the market for substantially above the asking price.
now, asking prices are lower and less houses are achieving the asking price.
if we do the math we can see that the price of a house in london today is less than a house in london was in april.