'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Bubble_and_Squeak

AndyGuil wrote: »

A few sold above asking. However on average the sold price was a few percent below the asking price. There is a big gap between average asking and average selling price which means a lot of properties are priced higher than they should be and won't sell. They skew the average asking price figures and are volatile. The averagr asking price is not the same as the average asking price of a sold property. The average asking price of a property that sells is rising and sits just above the average sold price.

i think you put an 'is' instead of a 'was' and a 'sit' instead of a 'sat'
you really need to look at whats happening today and stop sitting around waiting for a house to sell twice so that it will show up on the LR

Bubble_and_Squeak

Libber wrote: »

Well, you'll have to forgive me for missing the reference - before my time, I'm afraid.


If your thesis is that London prices peaked in April, what would you accept as evidence against? The Land Registry data lag actual transactions by around three months, Nationwide and Halifax lag by 1-2 months, and god alone knows what hometrack look at. If we see London prices increasing in the next couple of LR releases, presumably you'd concede that you were wrong? And if London has already peaked or started falling but the LR data hadn't picked up on it because of the lag, how do you explain the increase in the less laggy nationwide index - do you believe that the rest of the country is seeing strong compensatory price increases?

good points
LR is a funny old beast and moves in mysterious ways
i wouldn't expect the falls following the peak to show up until august at the earliest. more likely the last quarter.
i don't pay much attention nationwide and halifax as they represent a small section of the market. having said that, there does seem to be a ripple thing going on. all the london postcodes i'm monitoring have falling asking prices but when i look outside london prices are steadfast.
what matters to me is what is happening on the ground in my target area. i'm seeing a steady build up of supply, lower asking prices and houses failing to achieve those asking prices

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i think you put an 'is' instead of a 'was' and a 'sit' instead of a 'sat'
you really need to look at whats happening today and stop sitting around waiting for a house to sell twice so that it will show up on the LR

Right now and has always been the case the average sold price sits a few percent below the average asking price for a property that sells. Not the average asking price of all properties as not all properties sell. That is why it is a fallacy to take average asking prices for all properties as we all know these are volatile and have lits of sellers testing the market with silly prices. Always has done, always will do.

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

good points
LR is a funny old beast and moves in mysterious ways
i wouldn't expect the falls following the peak to show up until august at the earliest. more likely the last quarter.
i don't pay much attention nationwide and halifax as they represent a small section of the market. having said that, there does seem to be a ripple thing going on. all the london postcodes i'm monitoring have falling asking prices but when i look outside london prices are steadfast.
what matters to me is what is happening on the ground in my target area. i'm seeing a steady build up of supply, lower asking prices and houses failing to achieve those asking prices

LR already shows it rose right up to the end of April. Next month will show the same again for May. What next? Keep waiting?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

LR is a funny old beast and moves in mysterious ways
i wouldn't expect the falls following the peak to show up until august at the earliest. more likely the last quarter.

Eh?

You think the land reg lag is 6 - 9 months???

:rotfl:

Try 3-4 months at worst.....

If prices peaked in April they'd already be showing falls in all the sold price indices.

Whereas ALL those indices show nothing of the sort.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i don't think you understand how the market was in london around april.
houses were selling before they came on the market for substantially above the asking price.
now, asking prices are lower and less houses are achieving the asking price.
if we do the math we can see that the price of a house in london today is less than a house in london was in april.

Judging by some of the 'proof' you've been posting you seem to lack some understanding of your local market too. We've seen plenty of real sold prices from April, May, and June - they don't show a decline in price paid. Of all the links there's been one that might show falling prices but that's easily dismissed in the same way you've dismissed the others when they've been shown to prove the opposite of what you thought.

The ONLY thing that matters about April is what you could've bought for. The ONLY thing that matters about September is what you can buy for. I have no idea what April asking prices have to do with anything - you can now see the actual sold prices!

As your project becomes longer term then you may as well use the Land Reg data for monitoring purposes anyway. Any lag becomes more insignificant as time passes. Property Bee is useful in the very short term but, if I were you, I'd only use it to monitor houses you're interested in - trying to cherry pick selected houses to prove there are steep falls in price is just noise.

I find it fantastical to think there's a crash underway and the only people that know are you and some blokes on HPC. They can't believe it's not all over the news.

Bubble_and_Squeak

the basic fact is that buying a house in london is now cheaper than april.
how can it not be?
admitting this would go against everything you believe in so you cling to anything you can find to support this belief.
its like the theist trying to disprove evolution. logic and reason go out the window because an out of date reference says so

Bubble_and_Squeak

i love this one
beautifully sums up the mentality that prevails on this site
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45643756.html
the rest of walthamstow is falling
but, but the stats say prices are rising
so we'll put the price up to what its worth

Rinoa

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i love this one
beautifully sums up the mentality that prevails on this site
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45643756.html
the rest of walthamstow is falling
but, but the stats say prices are rising
so we'll put the price up to what its worth

There are terraced houses within1/4 mile of that address that have sold for £400,000 since April. Hope that helps.

Bubble_and_Squeak

Rinoa wrote: »

There are terraced houses within1/4 mile of that address that have sold for £400,000 since April. Hope that helps.

i would expect bubble prices to spill over into may
oh, but wait...
there is no bubble!
its all a figment of my imagination