How would the UK fare without Scotland?

beecher2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Thanks, very informative and shows there are options.

It's natural to go to the negotiating table with the proposal you believe is best for the people of Scotland AND the ROUK.

I think I'll bookmark your quote for any future posts on currency.

I can sort of understand why Alex Salmond didn't quote the options as they'd be pounced on as showing weakness, plus you don't show your negotiating hand before entering negotiations.

He did refer to the different options proposed by the Fiscal Commission and stated that currency union was the best for Scotland and the UK. I hope he has a better way of dealing with the question for the next debate though as it did appear weak and I don't think it would play well for people who are undecided.

Generali

beecher2 wrote: »

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/04/5881/8

These are the currency options for an independent Scotland.

In the event of independence, there will be negotiation and both sides will give and take. It would not be in the interests of Westminster to punish Scotland for voting for independence, and I'd think they'd leave the foaming at the mouth for the Mail comments pages.

Nor will it be in the interest of a British Government to give things to Scotland that the rest of the electorate don't want given away.

Interestingly, according to this article anyway, most English are happy to share the Quid and most Scots are happy to keep Trident, even if most Brits think Scotland should lose Trident if they go it alone!

It's all quite against the narrative going on here which I find interesting. I suggest it means that both Yes and No supporters aren't representative of those that they claim to represent.

beecher2

That's an interesting link Generali - missed that one when I was on holiday. Will be interested to see viewing figures - everyone I've spoken to so far watched and everyone on the bus was reading about it.

Would love to know what the undecided make of it - comments here might be interesting.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/poll/2014/aug/06/alex-salmond-alistair-darling-scotland-debate-independence-undecided-poll

It will also be interesting hearing about the Mass Canvas tonight - they're hitting quite a few places and target areas with traditonally low political engagement. I'd be interested to know what topics come up on the doorstep.

vivatifosi

Generali wrote: »

Nor will it be in the interest of a British Government to give things to Scotland that the rest of the electorate don't want given away.

Interestingly, according to this article anyway, most English are happy to share the Quid and most Scots are happy to keep Trident, even if most Brits think Scotland should lose Trident if they go it alone!

It's all quite against the narrative going on here which I find interesting. I suggest it means that both Yes and No supporters aren't representative of those that they claim to represent.

The survey is a year old though Gen, and the article also says:

On sharing the pound: We were doing this research in the summer of 2013, before the currency intervention and the whole issue blew up. At that point, 70% of people in England and Wales suggested, if Scotland wants to share the pound, "that's fine by us".
We know from subsequent opinion polls the position changed after George Osborne said he didn't think it was a terribly good idea, but that does suggest - rather than as was argued by those on the "No" side that there's no prospect of the public in England and Wales being willing to tolerate this idea - their opposition is in fact the consequence of politicians on the "No" side telling them it isn't a very good idea.


I'm surprised that this issue hasn't been re-polled since. I'd like to know what the current numbers are.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

I suggest it means that both Yes and No supporters aren't representative of those that they claim to represent.

I suggest it's politicians using tools to aid their negotiating hand.

CLAPTON

vivatifosi wrote: »

The survey is a year old though Gen, and the article also says:

On sharing the pound: We were doing this research in the summer of 2013, before the currency intervention and the whole issue blew up. At that point, 70% of people in England and Wales suggested, if Scotland wants to share the pound, "that's fine by us".
We know from subsequent opinion polls the position changed after George Osborne said he didn't think it was a terribly good idea, but that does suggest - rather than as was argued by those on the "No" side that there's no prospect of the public in England and Wales being willing to tolerate this idea - their opposition is in fact the consequence of politicians on the "No" side telling them it isn't a very good idea.


I'm surprised that this issue hasn't been re-polled since. I'd like to know what the current numbers are.

I don't think that most of us are really well equipped to have a view between


- use of the pound
- who sets interest rates
- lender of last resort and the general area of guaranteeing the banks


so I would expect most people would be happy for Scottish to simply continue to use the pound (there is any way no realistic way of preventing this)


most scots would probably be realistic and accept that England would decide BoE interest rate without taking Scotland's economy into account




most RoUK would probably reject the idea that they would bail out Scottish banks if they failed.

neverdespairgirl

beecher2 wrote: »

He did refer to the different options proposed by the Fiscal Commission and stated that currency union was the best for Scotland and the UK. I hope he has a better way of dealing with the question for the next debate though as it did appear weak and I don't think it would play well for people who are undecided.

The thing is, Alec Salmond doesn't get to decide what's best for the UK if Scotland votes for independence.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

AD, did not categorically state there would be no currency union, he said IF there was no currency union, inferring that it is up for negotation along with many other things

He couldn't have inferred anything. He might have implied it.

However, I don't think anyone necessarily says it is categorically ruled out.


I'd have absolutely no problem with Scotland using the pound. But I wouldn't expect decisions to be made about the currency taking Scotland into account any more than any other important neighbour and trading partner. Nor would it be reasonable to expect the UK to guarantee Scotland's borrowing or banks. What's the point of independence if you still want Mummy to hold your hand if the big boys are being mean to you?

samsam89

CLAPTON wrote: »

.....

most scots would probably be realistic and accept that England would decide BoE interest rate without taking Scotland's economy into account


.....

True, but if the BoE dictates interest rates for Scotland, then that really isn't Scotland being an independent nation, is it?

It strikes me that the 'yes' campaigners, in particular Salmond, want to have their cake and eat it too.

They want an independent country, but want to use the UK pound?

It's like having an affair and returning home everyday to use the family car.

CLAPTON

samsam89 wrote: »

True, but if the BoE dictates interest rates for Scotland, then that really isn't Scotland being an independent nation, is it?

It strikes me that the 'yes' campaigners, in particular Salmond, want to have their cake and eat it too.

They want an independent country, but want to use the UK pound?

It's like having an affair and returning home everyday to use the family car.

sadly, the weakness in the SNP case is, rather than work out what's best for Scotland and build a sensible case taking a realistic view of the currency, euro, shengen, defence etc, their one and only objective is separation from the English.
However, although a lot of scots go along with that, they are not the majority.

kabayiri

CLAPTON wrote: »

I don't think that most of us are really well equipped to have a view between


- use of the pound
- who sets interest rates
- lender of last resort and the general area of guaranteeing the banks


so I would expect most people would be happy for Scottish to simply continue to use the pound (there is any way no realistic way of preventing this)


most scots would probably be realistic and accept that England would decide BoE interest rate without taking Scotland's economy into account




most RoUK would probably reject the idea that they would bail out Scottish banks if they failed.

This sounds like a pragmatic default position.

I am not sure why Alex S doesn't start with this, and then build on it, taking the long term view.

Perhaps this is the key issue, the worry that voters don't seem to take a long term view on anything these days.

There is no doubt that Scotland could achieve currency stability if they retuned their spending plans for a few years of potentially lean times. They do this in other countries. Things like second cars are luxuries in places like Denmark, yet they manage without everyone flooding to their more prosperous German neighbour.

I'd be pretty neutral/positive on Scottish independence as a RoUKer if I felt it wouldn't put our economic well being under stress. It all feels too adverserial though, as it stands.