How would the UK fare without Scotland?

IveSeenTheLight

I believe this has an economic impact, so worth considering

1. If Scotland votes for independence, the UK would lose 32% of it's land
2. But only 8% of it's population
3. The UK would move from being the 45th most densely populated countries to 29th
4. The UK GVA would reduce 9.7% to £1,250 Billion
5. The UK GDP would drop by £282.50 from £21,577.22 to £21,294.72
6. Exports would have reduced by 7.1% (£16.9 Billion)
7. The last election would have resulted in a conservative majority by 21 seats
8. Life expectancy in the UK would increase by 0.4 years for men and 0.3 years for women

Generali

Interestingly, if you ignore mad people it seems that Scotland is very average overall vs the rest of the UK. GDP or GVA per head would remain unchanged, assuming there is a roughly reasonable split in debt, debt:GDP ratio would remain largely unchanged.

The impact on trade is harder to judge as I don't think that there are import figures just for Scotland available. Scotland exports a lot, as does the UK as a whole, but will be a massive importer too. For example, I can't imagine that market gardening is great as a business in Scotland: she'll be a massive net food importer. Consumer electronics aren't made north or south of the border either.

One concern is the massive reliance on banking and oil for both output and Government revenues. The Scottish economy doesn't seem very balanced to me.

Thrugelmir

Haven't some people got better things to do with their time?

Shouldn't the focus be on the impact on Scotland ?

IronWolf

As much as I'd love to live longer, I hope the Scots decide to stay in the UK.

RichardD1970

I was looking at this earlier and the only thing I got from it was how useless using statistics for real life situations was.

Without Scotland, Uk (statistically) goes from 45th most densely populated countries to 29th. But there are no extra people living here so it has absolutely no effect on real population density.

The same with life expectancy, no one is going to actually live longer due to Scottish independence.

Also, surely UK (ex Scotland) exports would rise as we would have a new export market to Scotland, as pointed out by Generali.

IveSeenTheLight

RichardD1970 wrote: »

I was looking at this earlier and the only thing I got from it was how useless using statistics for real life situations was.

Without Scotland, Uk (statistically) goes from 45th most densely populated countries to 29th. But there are no extra people living here so it has absolutely no effect on real population density.

The same with life expectancy, no one is going to actually live longer due to Scottish independence.

Your right, some of these are just some fun statistics that do not change as you point out.

It may highlight some things to some i.e. the population density does not change, however it maybe makes some realise how important or non important green land is.

Maybe it helps people to think about how densely populated London and the South East is.

Maybe it helps to get people to think about utilisation of more rural areas.

RichardD1970 wrote: »

Also, surely UK (ex Scotland) exports would rise as we would have a new export market to Scotland, as pointed out by Generali.

I guess that would depend in RUK exports more to Scotland than Scotland exports outwith the UK

chewmylegoff

Life expectancy up, what's not to like?! Out with Scotland!

tomterm8

Erm, as far as I can see it wouldn't make much difference to people south of the border.

After all, the Scots will remain up there in the cold bit of the (former) UK, it's not like they're all going to get into a giant boat and paddle across the Atlantic to get away from us.

It would probably be a trigger for a reconsideration of the UK's place on things like the UN security council and NATO which wouldn't be a bad thing IMHO.

zagubov

RichardD1970 wrote: »

I was looking at this earlier and the only thing I got from it was how useless using statistics for real life situations was.

Without Scotland, Uk (statistically) goes from 45th most densely populated countries to 29th. But there are no extra people living here so it has absolutely no effect on real population density.

The same with life expectancy, no one is going to actually live longer due to Scottish independence.

Also, surely UK (ex Scotland) exports would rise as we would have a new export market to Scotland, as pointed out by Generali.

Hey our averaged life expectancy is climbing by about 11 weeks every year anyway :j

CLAPTON

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Your right, some of these are just some fun statistics that do not change as you point out.

It may highlight some things to some i.e. the population density does not change, however it maybe makes some realise how important or non important green land is.

Maybe it helps people to think about how densely populated London and the South East is.

Maybe it helps to get people to think about utilisation of more rural areas.



I guess that would depend in RUK exports more to Scotland than Scotland exports outwith the UK

that isn't the usual meaning of the word 'exports' but then the SNP have taken a totally Orwellian view of language.

ariba10

We might be able to change to European time and get an extra hour daylight in the evening instead of the morning.

It has been vetoed by Scotland in the past - Something to do with the cows not liking to get up in the dark.