A Yes vote means better jobs for young people in Scotland

zagubov

antrobus wrote: »

The SNP said "We will give Scots the opportunity to decide our nation's future in an independence referendum." There is going to be a referendum on the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?" There are no other options.

Despite popular feeling there should have been, ignored by Dave but not by Alex.

CLAPTON wrote: »

surely it would be unreasonable to allow Scotland to choose to be (say) an IoM style tax haven with also allowing the whole of the UK to vote too?

I said it was like what DevoMax is, not identical to it.

Is a UK -wide vote how the IoM got its current status?

Are the US states with low tax, tax havens? Is that the business of the other states?

When anyone on here uses the word "surely", it seems to mean brace yourself for a non sequitur.:D

antrobus

zagubov wrote: »

Despite popular feeling there should have been, ignored by Dave but not by Alex....

The SNP said "We will give Scots the opportunity to decide our nation's future in an independence referendum."

That's what they asked for and that's what they're getting.

If there is 'popular feeling' on favour of something else, why didn't the SNP take due note of that back in 2011? Why were those feelings ignored by the SNP?

CLAPTON

zagubov wrote: »

Despite popular feeling there should have been, ignored by Dave but not by Alex.



I said it was like what DevoMax is, not identical to it.

Is a UK -wide vote how the IoM got its current status?

Are the US states with low tax, tax havens? Is that the business of the other states?

When anyone on here uses the word "surely", it seems to mean brace yourself for a non sequitur.:D

The tax and governance of IoM and the Channel Islands exists due to historical reasons.
It is extremely unlikely that their arrangement would be supported if they were proposed today.
They do not pay their way in the same manner as say Scotland or Wales or NI or England but have most of the privileges.

I doubt that the average Scot would be keen to (say) vote to subsidise Cornwall setting up in a similar manner if it meant that Scots would pay more tax.

antrobus

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

As I understand it, whilst repeatedly defending Scotland, Scotland did move south and take over some English castles and territories in order to defend itself on foreign soil.

Guess it's a bit like the UK going into Iraq / Libya etc

Not really.

Scotland regularly moved south and took over English castles and territories in order to keep them. It has succeeded in keeping some of these conquests; Edinburgh for example, but it was lest succesfull in other respects. The long standing ambition of the Kings of Scotland to lay claim claim to Northumbria and the southern portion of Strathclyde came to naught in the end.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

A yes vote is moving out in the betting now. 5.3 for a Yes vs 1.23 for a No.

The No lead in the opinion polls is pretty solid too, averaging about 10%.

It's interesting that Scots have been consistently voting pro independence in elections but seem set to reject it in the referendum. It's hard to see what Yes can do to change the situation. The message is clear and is being rejected.

I wonder if more of an appeal to hearts might have been a better approach. "Vote Yes for better management" isn't very stirring. "Vote Yes to cast off the chains of history" might get some passion going.

I shouldn't probably have come back up here to post but...

Hang on a bit with the 'post mortem's' because the decision hasn't yet been made to reject anything. So the message isn't clear about anything at the moment.

Across all the polls it's women that are dragging the figures down, not men who are now consistently in the majority for Yes.

The Panelbase exercise comes just days after a poll by Survation also found a record level of support for Yes, at 47%, compared to 53% for No.
Pollster Professor John Curtice said the two new polls together suggested that, after a few months in the doldrums, the Yes campaign appeared to be regaining momentum.
However, he also said the gender gap identified in the new Panelbase survey was "enormous", with support for Yes among decided female voters 15 points behind that for men, at 41% against 56%.
A Panelbase poll for Yes Scotland in April put the gap between the sexes at 10 points, with 42% of women backing Yes against 52% of men. He said: "It's women that really are a problem for the Yes side. You get a majority among men, and it's women who drag it [the total] down."

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/yes-48-no-52-breakthrough-poll-has-yes-at-record-high.24488719

I guess if Yes wants to change things. Then it will just have to work harder in appealing to the female 'don't know's. Like they did in 2011 to quite good effect actually.

Also of note is that Westminster voting intentions are now showing SNP majorly eating into Labour votes. How ironic would it be if we vote No, then the SNP hold the balance of power in Westminster.;)

Westminster vote (May 2015):
Labour: 36% (+3)
Conservative: 15% (-2)
SNP: 38% (nc)
Liberal Democrat: 5% (-1)
Another party (Net): 6% (-1)
http://survation.com/new-scottish-voting-intention-polling-for-daily-record-dundee-university-and-better-nation/

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I shouldn't probably have come back up here to post but.......

Should have stopped there.

This thread will only get moved across to DT like the last one you know.:)

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

Should have stopped there.

This thread will only get moved across to DT like the last one you know.:)

Probably. But I thought pointing out the 'gender gap' was worth doing anyway re polls. ( which incidentally went from massive to just 3% in 2011 by 5th May ). Especially in terms of what 'Yes' has to do to cross the 50% mark by September. It was a last minute surge of women voters who won that election so convincingly, despite the polls showing otherwise for absolute ages .

Anyone looking at the polls in February or March 2011 would have seen the evidence.

In those months TNS, Mori and ICM showed the gap between men’s intention to vote SNP and women’s intention of between 17 and 19 per cent (of a similar scale to the gap identified in the Survation/Daily Record independence poll and slightly higher than the recent TNS). But, by late March and April, TNS and Mori were showing the gap narrow to 9 and 11 per cent. And, by polling day itself, the gap between male votes for the SNP and female votes for the SNP (according to the 2011 Election Study) was a mere 3%, almost within the margin of error.

http://stephennoon.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-no-campaigns-women-problem.html

If the pattern repeats, and I have no idea if it will or won't.. then the No side will be in deep trouble if women start creeping up from 15% behind males for Yes, to just 3% as we draw nearer the day. And they are starting to creep up there polling wise the last few polls. Men are already in Yes majority territory.

See you in DT then !

Thrugelmir

zagubov wrote: »

Are the US states with low tax, tax havens? Is that the business of the other states?

The EU is currently looking into the taxation regimes of Eire, Netherlands, Luxembourg. So an independent Scotland planning to do likewise will receive short shrift if it expects to obtain EU membership.

zagubov

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The EU is currently looking into the taxation regimes of Eire, Netherlands, Luxembourg. So an independent Scotland planning to do likewise will receive short shrift if it expects to obtain EU membership.

So you think the EU will get all member states to standardise tax? Good luck!

Still plenty of people on here reckon Scotland would have to pay too high a price for membership deal so, why bother?

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I shouldn't probably have come back up here to post but...

Hang on a bit with the 'post mortem's' because the decision hasn't yet been made to reject anything. So the message isn't clear about anything at the moment.

Across all the polls it's women that are dragging the figures down, not men who are now consistently in the majority for Yes.


http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/yes-48-no-52-breakthrough-poll-has-yes-at-record-high.24488719

I guess if Yes wants to change things. Then it will just have to work harder in appealing to the female 'don't know's. Like they did in 2011 to quite good effect actually.

Also of note is that Westminster voting intentions are now showing SNP majorly eating into Labour votes. How ironic would it be if we vote No, then the SNP hold the balance of power in Westminster.;)

Westminster vote (May 2015):
Labour: 36% (+3)
Conservative: 15% (-2)
SNP: 38% (nc)
Liberal Democrat: 5% (-1)
Another party (Net): 6% (-1)
http://survation.com/new-scottish-voting-intention-polling-for-daily-record-dundee-university-and-better-nation/

It's an interesting point. I wonder why women are so against independence?

The polls still show a consistent message: Scottish people want Scotland to remain part of the UK.

If we take the poll that you refer to, one which paints an unusually rosy picture for the Yes camp, Yes would need to convert almost 2/3rds of don't knows to their side if they are to win and that assumes that all the don't knows vote. The fewer that vote the harder the task becomes.

If we go back to the poll immediately before that one:

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3389/Scottish-Public-Opinion-Monitor-June-2014.aspx

if Yes was to persuade every single one of the Don't Knows to their side they would still lose.

As the Director of IPSOS MORI put it:

“The Yes campaign has made some significant progress in persuading the public in recent months. With just over 100 days to go until the referendum they will hope that this represents momentum that will see support continue to grow up to September 18th. However, it is clear that the No campaign retains a healthy lead and, with the referendum fast approaching, there would need to be significant change in opinions if Yes is going to win.’

So the question remains: What can Yes do to change opinions? What they are doing is failing. We can see that in the betting and in the polling. They are running out of time and unless they can make a drastic change soon then they will lose.