A Yes vote means better jobs for young people in Scotland

antrobus

zagubov wrote: »

So you think the EU will get all member states to standardise tax? Good luck!

Still plenty of people on here reckon Scotland would have to pay too high a price for membership deal so, why bother?

Because trade accounts for over 100% of Scottish GDP, and about 2/3rds of that is with the rest of the UK. Putting itself on the wrong side of the EU tarriff wall would result in Scotland experiencing one almighty recession.

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

Because trade accounts for over 100% of Scottish GDP

That seems unlikely.

GDP = Consumption + Investment + Govt Spending + Exports - Imports

That implies that Consumption + Investment + Govt Spending < 0.

Can you rephrase?

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

That seems unlikely.

GDP = Consumption + Investment + Govt Spending + Exports - Imports

That implies that Consumption + Investment + Govt Spending < 0.

Can you rephrase?

Trade-2011 (% of output); 105% (including trade with the rest of the UK)
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201213/ldselect/ldeconaf/152/15214.htm

Remember, that by 'trade' we mean both exports and imports.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

It's an interesting point. I wonder why women are so against independence?

The polls still show a consistent message: Scottish people want Scotland to remain part of the UK.

If we take the poll that you refer to, one which paints an unusually rosy picture for the Yes camp, Yes would need to convert almost 2/3rds of don't knows to their side if they are to win and that assumes that all the don't knows vote. The fewer that vote the harder the task becomes.

If we go back to the poll immediately before that one:

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3389/Scottish-Public-Opinion-Monitor-June-2014.aspx

if Yes was to persuade every single one of the Don't Knows to their side they would still lose.

As the Director of IPSOS MORI put it:



So the question remains: What can Yes do to change opinions? What they are doing is failing. We can see that in the betting and in the polling. They are running out of time and unless they can make a drastic change soon then they will lose.

Women tend to be more risk averse than men, and young men are greater risk takers than older men.

I think it helps voting Yes if you are as thick as porridge as well, from what I have seen.

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

Trade-2011 (% of output); 105% (including trade with the rest of the UK)
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201213/ldselect/ldeconaf/152/15214.htm

Remember, that by 'trade' we mean both exports and imports.

It is 105%, I can't disagree.

So the next question is, why?

Even if it's grossed up it implies imports and exports of 50%+ of GDP.

I think I've worked it out. They've assumed that 100% of output of Scottish financial services companies and 'Scottish' oil & gas is 'Scottish' for the purposes of trade.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

It's an interesting point. I wonder why women are so against independence?

The polls still show a consistent message: Scottish people want Scotland to remain part of the UK.

If we take the poll that you refer to, one which paints an unusually rosy picture for the Yes camp, Yes would need to convert almost 2/3rds of don't knows to their side if they are to win and that assumes that all the don't knows vote. The fewer that vote the harder the task becomes.

If we go back to the poll immediately before that one:

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3389/Scottish-Public-Opinion-Monitor-June-2014.aspx

if Yes was to persuade every single one of the Don't Knows to their side they would still lose.

As the Director of IPSOS MORI put it:

So the question remains: What can Yes do to change opinions? What they are doing is failing. We can see that in the betting and in the polling. They are running out of time and unless they can make a drastic change soon then they will lose.

There have been three polls this week. ICM, Survnation and Panelbase. I posted the Survnation one as it showed the Westminster voting intentions also. The Ipso Mori one you refer to was on 2nd June. So out of date.

In all three of this weeks polls there has been a significant upswing for Yes from female respondents.

Most of the swing since Survation’s last poll has occurred amongst women rather than amongst men. At 10 points the difference between the level of support amongst men (51% after Don’t Knows are excluded) and that amongst women (41%) is lower in this poll than in any previous Survation poll.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/06/some-movement-survation-report-their-highest-yes-vote-yet/

Panelbase :- Other key findings included a seeming rise in support for independence from women, with 41% of those surveyed saying they would vote Yes.

http://news.stv.tv/politics/279200-referendum-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-at-new-high/

ICM :- The rise in Yes support was particularly evident among women, a trend which was welcomed by Yes campaigners given that women have traditionally been far more sceptical about independence than men.
According to the survey conducted on 9-12 June, female support for Yes has increased by five percentage points to 32 per cent since last month.
The rising female Yes support was more than matched by the falling support for No among women. Female support for remaining in the United Kingdom dropped by six percentage points to 42 per cent.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scots-fear-division-after-independence-vote-1-3444507

The point of pointing out the gender gap was to emphasise that that same thing was being said over and over again in 2011. Namely that women were far less likely to vote SNP/risk averse/. In the end on the day the difference was only 3%. The latest three polls (this week), if we disregard the headline figures.. are all showing a marked rise in Yes support from women. This in turn to driving the Yes% polling results up.

See the pattern there ? I know it suits you to dismiss this sort of thing. But it really does matter. If a majority of men are already polling Yes, and women are finally showing signs of catching up and eventually reach similar levels.. Then you don't need me to tell you what will happen to the Yes vote do you ?

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

It is 105%, I can't disagree.

So the next question is, why?

....

Because they have a lot of trade?

It's not uncommon to have nations where the percentage of trade exceeds 100% of GDP. See Belgium, where it's 182.5%.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There have been three polls this week. ICM, Survnation and Panelbase. I posted the Survnation one as it showed the Westminster voting intentions also. The Ipso Mori one you refer to was on 2nd June. So out of date.

In all three of this weeks polls there has been a significant upswing for Yes from female respondents.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/06/some-movement-survation-report-their-highest-yes-vote-yet/

http://news.stv.tv/politics/279200-referendum-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-at-new-high/

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scots-fear-division-after-independence-vote-1-3444507

The point of pointing out the gender gap was to emphasise that that same thing was being said over and over again in 2011. Namely that women were far less likely to vote SNP/risk averse/. In the end on the day the difference was only 3%. The latest three polls (this week), if we disregard the headline figures.. are all showing a marked rise in Yes support from women. This in turn to driving the Yes% polling results up.

See the pattern there ? I know it suits you to dismiss this sort of thing. But it really does matter. If a majority of men are already polling Yes, and women are finally showing signs of catching up and eventually reach similar levels.. Then you don't need me to tell you what will happen to the Yes vote do you ?

As the Yes deficit isn't particularly falling presumably male support is dropping away.

zagubov

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There have been three polls this week. ICM, Survnation and Panelbase. I posted the Survnation one as it showed the Westminster voting intentions also. The Ipso Mori one you refer to was on 2nd June. So out of date.

In all three of this weeks polls there has been a significant upswing for Yes from female respondents.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/06/some-movement-survation-report-their-highest-yes-vote-yet/

http://news.stv.tv/politics/279200-referendum-poll-suggests-support-for-independence-at-new-high/

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scots-fear-division-after-independence-vote-1-3444507

The point of pointing out the gender gap was to emphasise that that same thing was being said over and over again in 2011. Namely that women were far less likely to vote SNP/risk averse/. In the end on the day the difference was only 3%. The latest three polls (this week), if we disregard the headline figures.. are all showing a marked rise in Yes support from women. This in turn to driving the Yes% polling results up.

See the pattern there ? I know it suits you to dismiss this sort of thing. But it really does matter. If a majority of men are already polling Yes, and women are finally showing signs of catching up and eventually reach similar levels.. Then you don't need me to tell you what will happen to the Yes vote do you ?

THis may well be why the No campaigners have stressed the cybernat attacks and even non-insulting comments on JK Rowling and Mrs Lally as being attacks specifically on women, to try to slow the increase in the female vote.

ruggedtoast

zagubov wrote: »

THis may well be why the No campaigners have stressed the cybernat attacks and even non-insulting comments on JK Rowling and Mrs Lally as being attacks specifically on women, to try to slow the increase in the female vote.

Or maybe there is a subset of bigots who hate the fact that the UK is a plural open democracy and hope that voting for independence will help them pull the draw bridge up on it.

Just saying.