A Yes vote means better jobs for young people in Scotland

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

The polls are clear.

Since you love a poll (I take with a pinch of salt given outcomes can vary vastly from the polls), what do you think on this poll

Poll: Only a third trust Westminster to deliver more powers for Scotland

or this one

Poll: Scots trust Holyrood more than Westminster

These are important perceptions as to how the future of Scotland can be governed.

IveSeenTheLight

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Don't think Gordon Brown coming out tonight and saying Scottish education should be controlled from Westminster has boosted the No vote much !

Indeed, one might wonder if he secretly wants Scotland to become independent

Commenting on the speeches being delivered by Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown today - in which Mr Brown expressed support for a UK-wide education system Kenneth Gibson MSP said:

"Having undermined the No campaign last week by calling for David Cameron to debate with Alex Salmond, Gordon Brown has done it again. This week, he has endorsed the idea of a UK-wide education system - which could only mean taking powers away from Scotland and giving them back to Westminster - on the very day Alistair Darling and the No campaign are desperately trying to say that they stand for more powers for Scotland.

"In bizarrely arguing against having the Scottish education system, Gordon Brown makes the Yes case for us. If education was controlled by Westminster, not in the Scottish Parliament, Michael Gove would be deciding education policy for Scotland - I doubt if a single person in Scotland would want that, other than Gordon Brown. And students in Scotland would be paying £9,000 a year tuition fees as is the case south of the border, instead of enjoying the benefits of free education.

"We are better off taking decisions for Scotland in Scotland - and by becoming independent we can apply these benefits to the rest of our national life currently controlled by Westminster, including job-creation, getting rid of nuclear weapons, and representing ourselves in Europe.

"That is the real international outlook for young people and everyone in Scotland - instead of having our horizons limited by Westminster, which doesn't represent Scottish votes or our interests.

"The Yes campaign published a new poll today showing that only a third of people in Scotland trust the Westminster parties to deliver more powers - and no wonder, when Gordon Brown is praising an idea that would actually strip the Scottish Parliament of powers!

"We already know that three-times as many people in Scotland trust the Scottish Parliament, rather than Westminster, to make the right decisions for Scotland - and that is the essence of what a Yes vote is all about."

IveSeenTheLight

Back on topic for a moment

Business For Scotland say that: -

Independence can create more manufacturing jobs

With a Yes vote for Scottish independence, Scotland will gain more power over industrial policy. This is an opportunity to create more jobs in manufacturing. The benefits of this approach can provide high skill, well paid jobs in communities that have lost out during 30 years of uneven growth within the UK.

Last week’s Scottish Government report ‘Re-industrialising Scotland‘ focuses on this. It supports a tax system that encourages companies to hire more workers and financial allowances for capital investment in manufacturing.

Westminster governments have failed to support industry in Scotland. In fact the past 30 years has seen a gradual decline in UK manufacturing under various governments. This is despite the fact that Scotland has the resources and the talent to create a successful industrial policy.

Scotland’s strengths

Major-International-Firms-Invest-in-Scottish-Offshore-Renewables-Sector
Scotland has many top engineering companies, advantages in the life science sector, vast renewable energy potential and is a world leader in research and development.

Scotland is also a wealthy nation with almost £100 billion in total exports.

This provides a strong foundation to improve Scotland’s industrial performance to the benefit of people in Scotland.

Independence and jobs

impact-of-export-increase
Advanced engineering and the energy sector provide huge opportunities to create more jobs in Scotland.

The potential for design and production in tidal energy was signalled by the opening of an expert research centre at the University of Edinburgh. The offshore wind energy project in the outer Moray Firth, for instance, will employ 4,600 people at the peak of construction. A 50% increase in exports could increase employment by over 100,000, which would provide far greater opportunities for people across Scotland.

How can Scotland benefit from this approach?

127873-ravenscraig-steelworks-in-motherwell-being-demolished
The demolition of Ravenscraig: an independent Scotland can reverse Westminster’s deindustrialisation.
Old industrial communities lost the mass employment in areas such as coal, steel, shipbuilding, textiles and previous forms of engineering.

The 21st century requires a different industrial model. The Industrial Communities Alliance report called for a renewed push at both a public and private sector level to develop projects on energy, the low carbon economy (including renewables), strategic transport networks, local road and rail links and super fast broadband.

These proposals can strengthen Scotland’s economy and develop community infrastructure. This improves Scotland’s financial position as a whole. It also reduces the social costs of unemployment and underemployment by providing more high skilled, high paid jobs.

Westminster isn’t working for Scotland

manufacturing-1

In terms of energy, housing, investment policy and many other areas, Westminster does not act in Scotland’s interests.

The focus on London and the South East has created an imbalanced UK economy with an increasing North-South divide.

The Industrial Communities Alliance said that Westminster’s priorities “are too often to spend money in and around London” with “Few of the really big infrastructure projects that are underway or planned [in Scotland].”

The ICA report also described the UK Treasury as an “obstacle” to reform of Scotland’s enterprise zones.

Power for Scotland and a strategy for success

Scotland can succeed in developing a stronger industrial base through a focus on regulation, tax changes, support for business, skills and workforce development and business enabling infrastructure.

Scotland’s strengths in research, skills and exports can be harnessed to kick start an engineering and construction revival.
The Government report proposes a Scottish Innovation Agency, a Scottish Business Development Bank and a target to increase manufacturing and export outputs. Crucially, it also suggests using competitive capital allowances for businesses.

Allowances and grants support businesses to invest in new manufacturing equipment and infrastructure, which means companies can expand. UK capital allowances are less generous than other OECD countries. (page 45)

Conclusion

A vote for independence provides Scotland with the powers to improve the economy. Business for Scotland previously set out 10 substantial opportunities in a range of areas. A industrial policy that boosts manufacturing and increases job opportunities is one of the most important, as it brings many benefits at once.

A stronger manufacturing sector rebalances the economy, boosts national exports, maintains a trading balance, builds on Scotland’s key economic strengths, reduces social spending costs and provides high skilled jobs. For these reasons it will be key to Scotland’s success as an independent country.

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Since you love a poll (I take with a pinch of salt given outcomes can vary vastly from the polls), what do you think on this poll

The point is that when people are asked, "Do you want Scotland to be independent from the UK?" more people have said than no every single time bar once since the polls started being taken. The betting exchanges are similarly showing one highly likely outcome and one pretty unlikely outcome.

So, given that the Yes campaign has been a failure so far, what can Yes do to turn it around? I'd have thought supporters of Yes would have some views on that.

This is a genuine question BTW. If more women need to support Yes (which seems to be what ShakeTheDisease was saying) then how can Yes gain more support from women do you think? If women voting No isn't the problem, what is?

If you're saying there is no problem for Yes then I think you're demonstrably wrong and so do the betting markets.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

The point is that when people are asked, "Do you want Scotland to be independent from the UK?" more people have said than no every single time bar once since the polls started being taken. The betting exchanges are similarly showing one highly likely outcome and one pretty unlikely outcome.

So, given that the Yes campaign has been a failure so far, what can Yes do to turn it around? I'd have thought supporters of Yes would have some views on that.

This is a genuine question BTW. If more women need to support Yes (which seems to be what ShakeTheDisease was saying) then how can Yes gain more support from women do you think? If women voting No isn't the problem, what is?

If you're saying there is no problem for Yes then I think you're demonstrably wrong and so do the betting markets.

The last two polled questions I posted will help the yes campaign by articulating the believe on Holyrood / Westminster correlation after a No vote and thus help to persuade some that having autonomy will be the better solution.

Care to comment on these two polls I previously posted?

zagubov

Generali wrote: »

The point is that the formula isn't winning though. Yes has remained consistently behind in the polls and that just isn't changing.

Without a change in strategy, they only real hope for yes is some kind of ridiculous mistake by No which of course you can never discount. It doesn't seem like much of a plan quite honestly.

You really haven't met the NO crowd. Their heads are emptier than a hermit's address book.

MumOf2 wrote: »

I think you'll find it was the results of a survey of young people that Gordon Brown was referring to. A majority of respondents are in favour of harmonising curricula and exams.


Our children and their friends are outward looking and are keen to break down the barriers that currently exist between the two education systems. Three have already been to, or are currently at, English universities and the fourth is likely to follow in two years' time. It was their decision to spread their wings and fly. And we weren't going to hold them back. Good on them.

I've been through one and worked in the other.
One system has produced the biggest proportion of graduates in Europe. The other has produced the most briefly educated but most indebted.

IveSeenTheLight

Interesting article about the only place in the world to ever reject independence at the ballot box

Scots will suffer if the vote is No, experts on Quebec warn
SCOTS will pay a price in reduced power and influence in Westminster if they vote No, veteran Quebec independence experts have warned.

The "nation within Canada" is the only place in the world to ever reject independence at the ballot box - in 1980 and 1995.

However, campaigners and experts believe the two referendum defeats weakened the province's government by losing it the biggest bargaining chip it ever had: the very threat of a vote on breaking away.

Alain-G Gagnon, professor of political science at the University of Quebec in Montreal, said: "People need to be aware, if you go for a referendum, if you lose it you will have to pay a price. You can't lose the referendum and not lose something else.

"Scots should be advised that the centre always wants to protect itself. Even if they say they want to consider some devo max, forget it. They will say, 'No, we shall not give them more power, look what they have done with the power they have'. They will say 'If we give them more power, there'll be a slippery slope there'. Their strategy will be to limit the power of Holyrood."

Quebecers solidly supported their federation with Canada in 1980 on the promise of more powers that - independence campaigners argue - failed to materialise. The No vote in 1995 was so narrow - the difference was fewer than 50,000 - some thought the narrow victory for No would force concessions, more autonomy. It did not.

Bernard Drainville, a prominent member of Quebec's main independence force, Parti Quebecois echoed Mr Gagnon's views.

He said: "I am of the opinion that the strength of our independence movement determines the bargain power we have with the central government.

"In the same way I am convinced that the strength of the Scottish indy movement is the key determinant of Scotland's bargaining power with London. The fact that there is a strong indy movement gives you the strength to protect your interests, to get the better deal from London."

Mr Drainville added: "Not only did we punish ourselves by saying no to this great idea of founding our own country, but we also weakened ourselves because the rest of Canada kind of assumed that losing makes the future threat of a referendum less credible.

"So my advice to Scots would be: don't miss your chance. The big advantage that Scotland has is its natural resources, its oil, its financial sector. You can manage, you can do it."

And one of Canada's most prominent unionists Senator Dennis Dawson acknowledged that losing a referendum hurt Quebec. But he laid the blame firmly on his opponents for holding the vote in the first place.

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Back on topic for a moment

Business For Scotland say that: -

It's an interesting piece but it's all a bit pie in the sky. I don't doubt the figures. A 50% increase in exports would add £5-10bn to GDP and that's great.

Getting there? That's harder.

Scottish GDP is about £125,000,000,000.

Norway spends about £16,000,000 per km on motorways

http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/article2970807.ece#.U5_s6KJX9Px

To build a new motorway from Inverness to Glasgow for example would cost in the region of £4,300,000,000. To build that would mean an increase in spending of about 7.6%* which will be hard to do while cutting taxes.

*This assumes Scotland's Government spends 45% of GDP, i.e. slightly less than the UK as a whole.

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The last two polled questions I posted will help the yes campaign by articulating the believe on Holyrood / Westminster correlation after a No vote and thus help to persuade some that having autonomy will be the better solution.

Care to comment on these two polls I previously posted?

Not really, they're self explanatory really.

It doesn't seem to be translating into a Yes vote though. According to the betting exchanges, a Yes vote is becoming increasingly unlikely in fact.

IveSeenTheLight

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Back on topic for a moment

Business For Scotland say that: -

another on topic discussion point

Scotland has a strong private business sector

There are more businesses in Scotland than ever before. Inward investment has also hit a 16 year high. This demonstrates that Scotland has what it takes to be a wealthy, independent country.

Overview

The report Business in Scotland (2013) identified 343,105 private sector enterprises operating in Scotland. This is the highest figure recorded since the report series began in 2000.

Private sector employment stands at over 2 million, as of 2014. Public sector employment was 545,200.

The evidence demonstrates that Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs) are vital drivers of Scotland’s economy; and that Scotland has a strong, and diverse private economy.

Improving the strength of private sector employment in Scotland is best best achieved through an industrial and business strategy for an independent Scotland.

Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs)

There are 340,840 SMEs in Scotland. They employ 1.1 million people.

This means that SMEs account for 99.3% of all private sector enterprises.

They account for 54.7% of all private sector employment and 36.7% of private sector turnover.

How does the Office for National Statistics define a SME?

337,135 (98.3%) of businesses are small (0 to 49 employees); 3,705 (1.1%) are medium-sized (50 to 249 employees) and 2,270 (0.7%) are large (250 or more employees).

chart 1 Scottish business by size

Breakdown of these small businesses

Although 98.3% of all businesses in Scotland are registered as small, this includes different types of small enterprises.

70.6% of all businesses are sole proprietors or partnerships.

Unregistered enterprises represent 53.4% of all private enterprises.

The threshold for registration is measured by turnover. Companies which generate over £81,000 must register.

In total Scotland has 160,050 registered businesses.

Importance of large businesses

Although SMEs make up the vast majority of businesses, most private sector employment and a substantial percentage of total turnover, large businesses remain important.

63.3% of all private sector turnover is in large businesses.

Around 45% of total private sector employment is in these 2,270 large businesses.

Businesses by sector

The number of businesses by sector can be split into four groups.

As of 2013 there were over 50,000 businesses in ‘Professional, scientific and technical activities’ and just under 50,000 businesses in Construction. There are the two largest sectors.

Six sectors have over 20,000 enterprises operating in Scotland. These are Human health and social work activities, Retail trade, Transportation and storage, Agriculture, forestry and fishing, and Administrative and support service activities.

Five sectors have between 10-20,000 enterprises. These are Manufacturing, Accommodation and food service activities, Information and commerce, Arts, entertainment and recreation, and education.

Five sectors are registered with 1-10,000 enterprises. These are Wholesale trade, Real estate activities, Motor trade including repairs, Mining, quarrying and utilities, and Financial and insurance services.

chart 3 Scottish businesses by sector

Increase in enterprises

Between 2000 and 2013, the total number of enterprises increased by an estimated 43.0% (103,140 enterprises). This is largely due to a doubling in sole proprietors.

The number of register proprietors has increased by 7.7% from 148,665 to 160,050. This includes increases in Small, Medium and Large enterprises.

chart 2 enterprise growth in Scotland

Record inward investment in Scotland

The Ernst and Young survey on inward investment has consistently recorded high levels of investment for Scotland.

The 2014 report identified that Scotland was the most popular area of the UK for inward investment outside of London.

Scotland received over 10% of all investment, despite being only 8.3% of the population. Scotland was especially strong in areas of software and research and development.

Source: Ernst and Young 2014 UK attractiveness survey. Link: http://!!!!!!/xSkO8

FDI by region

Business ownership

96.9% of enterprises are owned in Scotland which accounts for 64.8% of employment and 41.9% of total turnover.

Companies owned in rUK or abroad represent 3.1% of total enterprises which account for 35.2% of employment and 58.1% of total turnover.

Within large firms this is even more pronounced (82.4% of enterprises, 63.6% of employment and 78.1% of turnover owned outside of Scotland)

Of the 35.2% of ownership outside of Scotland, 18.7% of private sector employment has ownership in rUK. 16.5% is owned outside of the UK.

Abroad ownership varies by sector. 31.3% of manufacturing employment is in companies owned outside of the UK. However, the figure is only 6.1% in the construction sector.

There are no current figures for Scottish ownership of business in the rest of the UK and internationally.

Part of an industrial and business strategy for an independent Scotland should consider opportunities to grow businesses based in Scotland.

chart 4 Scottish business by ownership and employment

Conclusion

The evidence is clear that Scotland has a diverse, private sector economy with the strength to prosper in an independent Scotland. The full powers of independence provide the opportunity to improve Scotland’s economy, create more jobs and fit government policy to Scotland’s priorities.