Immigration vital to the Nation's finances...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The economic benefit of immigration to the UK is revealed today in a report showing that halting net migration would cost every taxpayer in the country £137,000 over their lifetime.

Analysis of Office for Budget Responsibility figures by the Migration Matters Trust reveals that if net migration were stopped tomorrow, the UK's net public sector debt would rise from 74 per cent of GDP to 187 per cent within the next 50 years – higher than Greece's current national debt of 161 per cent.

Within five years from now, public sector net debt would rise by £18bn, the equivalent of 5p on the basic rate of income tax, the research shows.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/halting-immigration-would-cost-uk-18bn-in-five-years-8555344.html

I trust all the anti-immigrant posters on here have their £137,000 cheque to the Treasury signed already.....:rotfl:

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/halting-immigration-would-cost-uk-18bn-in-five-years-8555344.html

I trust all the anti-immigrant posters on here have their £137,000 cheque to the Treasury signed already.....:rotfl:

These are the lords of the universe that can't even give a figure for GDP in six months time but can forecast 40 years ahead.

extrapolation is a wonderful thing

I remember in the early late 80s/early 90s reading about the massive rise in air travel
I think the calculation was that by 2010 every single person in the world would be on a plane somewhere.
It didn't come to pass.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

These are the lords of the universe that can't even give a figure for GDP in six months time but can forecast 40 years ahead.

extrapolation is a wonderful thing

I remember in the early late 80s/early 90s reading about the massive rise in air travel
I think the calculation was that by 2010 every single person in the world would be on a plane somewhere.
It didn't come to pass.

That's lovely and all, but perhaps you could stick to actually discussing the figures in the report, rather than building straw men and making false assertions.

Graham_Devon

Says a "cross party pro migration group".

Well what a surprise.

In other stories, the pope has revealed religion is a good thing.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

That's lovely and all, but perhaps you could stick to actually discussing the figures in the report, rather than building straw men and making false assertions.

Are you saying that you think the track record of the OBR has been good and reliable?

In my view they are a body influenced by a certain bias and with a poor forecasting track record.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Says a "cross party pro migration group".

Well what a surprise.

In other stories, the pope has revealed religion is a good thing.

And how is that different to the anti-immigration groups that so many posters on here quote?

Of course, you never mention it then.....:rotfl:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

Are you saying that you think the track record of the OBR has been good and reliable?

In my view they are a body influenced by a certain bias and with a poor forecasting track record.

In my view, attacking the source is a poor substitute for debating the data, and creates a logical fallacy.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And how is that different to the anti-immigration groups that so many posters on here quote?

Of course, you never mention it then.....:rotfl:

If you are talking about the UKIP, then this one is easy. The don't try and forecast 40 years away to create a scare story.

The simply quote today and that's enough to make their point.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

In my view, attacking the source is a poor substitute for debating the data, and creates a logical fallacy.

What data?

Chote and co have taken data, made numerous assumptions and projected forward for 50 years

Now lets go back to 2005 say: what would Chote & co have said about the economic importance of the UK financial sector. I bet it bears no relationship to what they would say now.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

forecast 40 years away to create a scare story.

CLAPTON wrote: »

projected forward for 50 years.

I'll repeat this bit for those with comprehension problems....

Within five years from now, public sector net debt would rise by £18bn, the equivalent of 5p on the basic rate of income tax, the research shows.

Now drop the straw men lads, and debate the data.,

wotsthat

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I trust all the anti-immigrant posters on here have their £137,000 cheque to the Treasury signed already.....:rotfl:

I know of a family of Slovaks who arrived in the UK six months ago. They've five kids and another on the way. They are now housed and in receipt of benefits. They neither work nor intend to. Anecdotal for sure but pop down my way and I'll show you a suburb of a small city where they're far from the exception. This is happening now. There's also a shortage of housing now. There's also a huge deficit now.

On the other hand a forecast based on a lifetime extrapolation shows I'm better of by £137k as a result. Hmmm - I wonder what the range of error is on that figure. Could easily be -£137k.

I'll take my chances that I'm cutting off my nose to spite my face - where do I send the cheque?