Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index

motorguy

marathonic wrote: »

Okay, so if rising prices coupled with rising transaction levels isn't considered a 'real recovery', can you please define a 'real recovery' for us?

Obviously, you are a bear. If I had asked you to define a 'real recovery' this time last year, I imagine you would have talked about year on year increases in house prices together with an increase in transactions. Now that both are in place, what bearish slant are you going to put on todays news?

I'm contantly hearing people talk about employment levels of the early-mid 2000's without realising that we don't need employment levels or bank lending to return to 2007 levels to get year-on-year increases in house prices - we just need them to improve on last year (or, at least, not deteriorate further).

Well summarised! :beer:

marathonic

motorguy wrote: »

Well summarised! :beer:

Thank you

I see someone has registered the http://www.housepriceboom.com/ domain name. That could be a real money spinner over the next few years. All the bullish posters have been banned from HPC and need somewhere to post

BigAl94

I maintain this is a false scenario fuelled by pent up demand. I am not a "bear" - I really don't care as I no longer have a mortgage - just an opinion!

marathonic

BigAl94 wrote: »

I maintain this is a false scenario fuelled by pent up demand. I am not a "bear" - I really don't care as I no longer have a mortgage - just an opinion!

A false scenario fueled by pent up demand?

An increase in prices fueled by pent up demand is the definition of basic economics, not a 'false scenario'. What has caused any increase in property prices in any geography since the beginning of time? - it's all to do with supply and demand.

Saying that pent up demand causing an increase in prices is a 'false scenario' is demonstrating a lack of understanding of basic economics. And this doesn't just apply to houses - it applies equally to gold, silver, shares and even bitcoins

marathonic

On re-reading my post, I just want to clarify that the suggestion of a lack of understanding of basic economics isn't meant to be a dig at you. Economics is a complex subject and I wouldn't expect the majority of the general public to have an understanding of basic economics unless they studied it at school or in their own time.

BigAl94

marathonic wrote: »

On re-reading my post, I just want to clarify that the suggestion of a lack of understanding of basic economics isn't meant to be a dig at you. Economics is a complex subject and I wouldn't expect the majority of the general public to have an understanding of basic economics unless they studied it at school or in their own time.

Oh dear - another "expert"

motorguy

BigAl94 wrote: »

Oh dear - another "expert"

Funny, most of our "experts" on house prices in northern ireland are surprisingly quiet now, saying as theres yet another report showing house prices are on the up.

Wheres saverbuyer and tara747? All previously very vocal nay-sayers.

It seems that whilst they always professed to have an "objective" view of the market, now that its showing clear signs of recovery they're keeping their heads down.

marathonic

BigAl94 wrote: »

Oh dear - another "expert"

It doesn't take much of an expert to know that increased demand leads to increased prices.

You can continue to have your opinion. Personally, I'll stick with the cold hard facts, printed there in black and white on the report.

Throughout last year, I saw continuous drops in asking prices in PropertyPal. The frequency of such reductions reduced significantly throughout 2013 and, as of yet, I don't see any evidence of them returning to the levels of recent years. For this reason, I wasn't too surprised when the improvements in the market were further confirmed by each quarterly report.

Whether we see double digit growth next year remains to be seen. Personally, I'd be very surprised if we saw double digit drops again over the next decade. The potential reward vastly outweighs the risk involved in buying at current levels.

BigAl94

marathonic wrote: »

It doesn't take much of an expert to know that increased demand leads to increased prices.

You can continue to have your opinion. Personally, I'll stick with the cold hard facts, printed there in black and white on the report.

Throughout last year, I saw continuous drops in asking prices in PropertyPal. The frequency of such reductions reduced significantly throughout 2013 and, as of yet, I don't see any evidence of them returning to the levels of recent years. For this reason, I wasn't too surprised when the improvements in the market were further confirmed by each quarterly report.

Whether we see double digit growth next year remains to be seen. Personally, I'd be very surprised if we saw double digit drops again over the next decade. The potential reward vastly outweighs the risk involved in buying at current levels.

Sounds like estate agent talk!

marathonic

BigAl94 wrote: »

Sounds like estate agent talk!

If I wasn't employed in IT and was considering starting a business, an estate agent business would be something I'd consider starting up. Plenty have closed down in recent years and, with rising future transactions, the profits will be rolling in