Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

You may be right, I don't know. I suspect your belief is a rationalization and a justification for your decision, though. Surely having made your choice, all this is academic?
Meanwhile, the savers are watching prices slip.

Well, that’s the thing, I don’t know either. All we can do is take an educated guess based on where we think the market is going.

The bulls will always say that prices have dropped X% since 2007 – when 2007 wasn’t an accurate baseline. It’s obvious that things were overpriced then. They’ll argue about salary multiples and affordable mortgages and this is something I’ve been doing. The problem with my argument is that I’m on an above average salary for my area - so I may be overoptimistic considering my mortgage is now 2.78 times my salary for a 4-bedroom detached house.

The bears will argue about difficulty in saving deposits and lack of bank funding. What they don’t admit is that funding doesn’t need to return to 2007 levels for prices to rise – it just needs to improve on last year. Sure, prices won’t rise to 2007 levels, but I don’t expect that to happen for many years and, when it does, it’ll be primarily through inflation.

At the end of the day, everyone has to pick a point to buy – unless they want to rent forever or are expecting an inheritance.

I’m not sure what entry criteria the bears are using – based on the Price Reports, are they waiting on a certain number of consecutive rises? Maybe they are waiting for their desired house to come within a certain multiple of their own salary or maybe they are just so afraid of risk that they’ll never jump in and will miss the boat – whenever it does happen to sail.

BTW, I am still interested in house prices because I’m interested in purchasing one or more BTL properties in the future. If prices shoot up, this plan may change.

There will be a lucky few that time it perfectly but, if you are waiting for a rising market before buying, you're obviously not going to be within this lucky few.

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

Well, that’s the thing, I don’t know either. All we can do is take an educated guess based on where we think the market is going.

The bulls will always say that prices have dropped X% since 2007 – when 2007 wasn’t an accurate baseline. It’s obvious that things were overpriced then. They’ll argue about salary multiples and affordable mortgages and this is something I’ve been doing. The problem with my argument is that I’m on an above average salary for my area - so I may be overoptimistic considering my mortgage is now 2.78 times my salary for a 4-bedroom detached house.

The bears will argue about difficulty in saving deposits and lack of bank funding. What they don’t admit is that funding doesn’t need to return to 2007 levels for prices to rise – it just needs to improve on last year. Sure, prices won’t rise to 2007 levels, but I don’t expect that to happen for many years and, when it does, it’ll be primarily through inflation.

At the end of the day, everyone has to pick a point to buy – unless they want to rent forever or are expecting an inheritance.

I’m not sure what entry criteria the bears are using – based on the Price Reports, are they waiting on a certain number of consecutive rises? Maybe they are waiting for their desired house to come within a certain multiple of their own salary or maybe they are just so afraid of risk that they’ll never jump in and will miss the boat – whenever it does happen to sail.

BTW, I am still interested in house prices because I’m interested in purchasing one or more BTL properties in the future. If prices shoot up, this plan may change.

There will be a lucky few that time it perfectly but, if you are waiting for a rising market before buying, you're obviously not going to be within this lucky few.

Well, if or when they do start rising, there will be no reason to believe they will continue to rise, now that everyone is fully, even painfully, aware, that prices - gasp - can actually go down again.

Therefore, there will never - in the lifetime of any of today's adults - arise a mega boom such as the late lamented run up to 2007. Those fixed firm beliefs that property is a sure bet, that if you don't buy today you'll only pay more tomorrow, that renting is dead money, that NI houses never lose value (some otherwise sensible people believed this) have all been slaughtered (and probably sold as value pack burgers). So if there is ever a significant rise in future, we, the people who experienced the Great Crash of 2007 - ?, will know that sitting tight for the next dip is the best advice to give each other, our children and our grandchildren if they ever lament any future unaffordability. This unwillingness to pay too much will of course limit demand - thereby killing any boom before it gets started.


You like to say this time it's not different. Sorry - I disagree. The run up to 2007 was a product of lending multiples gone mad, resulting in the near death and government provided intensive care of the entire banking system in most of the Western world. And the chances of this happening again this century are what? It was a one-off, not-to-be-repeated madness. Maybe some half-hearted semblance of it in another 70 years. I don't expect to care by then. You won't either.

motorguy

saverbuyer wrote: »

What does that even mean? Do you think banks should be forced to lend at silly multiples or to people without deposits?

No, i mean banks are very reluctant to offer 5% deposit mortgages and also they are putting very low valuations on houses, so even if a price is 'agreed' it may not be valued at that price by the bank.

saverbuyer wrote: »

In Japan prices have yet to recover after 15 years.

Japan was a very different market. 100 year mortgages? And you're comparing their situation to ours??

saverbuyer wrote: »

What is with this confidence thing. Confidence does not pay the mortgage.

Gee, i didnt realise you had so little grasp of how the economy works.

Have a read at this...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_confidence

If you've any questions on it, ask a nearby grown up

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Well, if or when they do start rising, there will be no reason to believe they will continue to rise, now that everyone is fully, even painfully, aware, that prices - gasp - can actually go down again.

Therefore, there will never - in the lifetime of any of today's adults - arise a mega boom such as the late lamented run up to 2007. Those fixed firm beliefs that property is a sure bet, that if you don't buy today you'll only pay more tomorrow, that renting is dead money, that NI houses never lose value (some otherwise sensible people believed this) have all been slaughtered (and probably sold as value pack burgers). So if there is ever a significant rise in future, we, the people who experienced the Great Crash of 2007 - ?, will know that sitting tight for the next dip is the best advice to give each other, our children and our grandchildren if they ever lament any future unaffordability. This unwillingness to pay too much will of course limit demand - thereby killing any boom before it gets started.


You like to say this time it's not different. Sorry - I disagree. The run up to 2007 was a product of lending multiples gone mad, resulting in the near death and government provided intensive care of the entire banking system in most of the Western world. And the chances of this happening again this century are what? It was a one-off, not-to-be-repeated madness. Maybe some half-hearted semblance of it in another 70 years. I don't expect to care by then. You won't either.

I think you are overestimating peoples ability to let common sense override greed. People have very short term memories when it comes to things like this.

Also, the buyers of the next decade (the teenagers of today) couldn't really care less about the economy whilst they're sitting in playing Grand Theft Auto.

Do you really think that the majority of those people are going to see prices rising in the future and hold off buying because they remember their parents saying something about negative equity 10 years ago?

I do agree, however, that the people hit hardest will not dip their toes into the water again. They are likely to pay down their mortgage, if they can, and otherwise, be repossessed and rent.

Basically, what I'm saying is that, the people impacted the most are the main ones who would see excessively high prices and hold off buying in the future. However, most of them won't be in a position to buy in thier lifetimes anyway due to their current negative equity or, worse, impending repossession.

I'm quite confident that I will see a boom again in my lifetime, albeit not as big. I just hope that I recognize it when it comes so that I can consider selling any BTL's that I, potentially, have at that time.

saverbuyer

No, i mean banks are very reluctant to offer 5% deposit mortgages and also they are putting very low valuations on houses, so even if a price is 'agreed' it may not be valued at that price by the bank.

10% deposits were the norm before the boom, anything less is subprime lending. Do you want us to get back to subprime lending to increase house prices?

Low valuations? Really? It would be awful that the banks (some state owned) are pricing in future falls. You have been saying banks are under valuing since 2009, prices have dropped nearly 30% since then. I can only hope that our state owned banks were "undervaluing" by more to price in future falls.

I think it is good that banks are saving people from their own stupidity.

Japan was a very different market. 100 year mortgages? And you're comparing their situation to ours??

Actually Paul we had intergenerational mortgages. We also had 125% mortgages and 10 times salary multiple. We also have a QE designed to keep interest rates and mortgage rates low, just like Japan.

Japan were the second largest economy. We have 50% of our GDP subsidised by England.

Japan had (until this year) massive trade surpluses as a leading exporter nation. We have estate agents and charity shops.

Japan had large levels of public saving. We have maxed the credit cards.

We have overtaken Japan as having the biggest crash in modern times. Prices there are at 1983 levels.

Yes Paul, I am comparing our crash to Japan's but I'm saying ours could get much much worse.

If you've any questions on it, ask a nearby grown up

Did you just call me a child and link to Wikipedia?

Seriously Paul you need economic positives to increase confidence. Things like job security, income growth and rising employment. Confidence increases if these things increase and then you buy a house.

You don't increase consumer confidence, buy a house and this increases job security, income growth and rising employment.

motorguy

saverbuyer wrote: »

10% deposits were the norm before the boom, anything less is subprime lending. Do you want us to get back to subprime lending to increase house prices?

Low valuations? Really? It would be awful that the banks (some state owned) are pricing in future falls. You have been saying banks are under valuing since 2009, prices have dropped nearly 30% since then. I can only hope that our state owned banks were "undervaluing" by more to price in future falls.

I think it is good that banks are saving people from their own stupidity.



Actually Paul we had intergenerational mortgages. We also had 125% mortgages and 10 times salary multiple. We also have a QE designed to keep interest rates and mortgage rates low, just like Japan.

Japan were the second largest economy. We have 50% of our GDP subsidised by England.

Japan had (until this year) massive trade surpluses as a leading exporter nation. We have estate agents and charity shops.

Japan had large levels of public saving. We have maxed the credit cards.

We have overtaken Japan as having the biggest crash in modern times. Prices there are at 1983 levels.

Yes Paul, I am comparing our crash to Japan's but I'm saying ours could get much much worse.





Did you just call me a child and link to Wikipedia?

Seriously Paul you need economic positives to increase confidence. Things like job security, income growth and rising employment. Confidence increases if these things increase and then you buy a house.

You don't increase consumer confidence, buy a house and this increases job security, income growth and rising employment.

I actually told myself i wasnt going to get involved in this thread because theres always internet armchair experts regurgitating what they've read on some news website.

So, on that basis, i'm oot.

qwert_yuiop

motorguy wrote: »

I actually told myself i wasnt going to get involved in this thread because theres always internet armchair experts regurgitating what they've read on some news website.

So, on that basis, i'm oot.

Same as every other thread then?

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

I think you are overestimating peoples ability to let common sense override greed. People have very short term memories when it comes to things like this.

Also, the buyers of the next decade (the teenagers of today) couldn't really care less about the economy whilst they're sitting in playing Grand Theft Auto.

Do you really think that the majority of those people are going to see prices rising in the future and hold off buying because they remember their parents saying something about negative equity 10 years ago?

Yes I certainly do. How did today's generation of regretful house buyers get their ideas of the supposed wisdom of property purchase at the high prices before 6 years ago? From their parents of course. Remember the last generation to lose a fortune on property here were those who bought during the First World War. So I will be amazed if it takes less than a generation to un-learn the salutary lessons of the last six years. In historical terms, six years is a very long time for a property reversal- six years so far. Aye - this time it's different.

That's my armchair expertise. I made it up myself without reading other websites .

tara747

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Same as every other thread then?

:rotfl::rotfl:

chunter

Down South ahead of the curve on this.. things starting to pick up round the city (minusculely), the rest stagnant.
A lot of negative equity (never to be regained) still about.
A lot of big mortgages that'll murder people who are stuck with them, when the economy starts up again - inflation grows and interest rate rises start kicking in..
public sector job cuts and real time wage cuts to kick in yet..

Not many punters out there that would even dream of predicting house prices in Northern Ireland are going anywhere for the next 10 years...