Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

Don't forget, the latest report is out tomorrow. Should be available here:

http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/lps/statistics-and-research-publications.htm

Personally, I predict drops for Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, but not as big as the previous years. Therefore, I think the annual rate of decline will reduce from the current 12% to well into the single digits as 2013 progresses.

When we see 3 consecutive quarters of rises, there is no doubt that the media will be falling over themselves to report it and this, in itself, will result in further rises.

It will probably be Spring 2014 before the annual change turns positive.

Only God knows this. You, I and the "experts" do not and cannot. There are far too many unknowns, both known and unknown, for anyone to make a prediction like that.

qwert_yuiop

Has it not occurred to anyone that house prices are simply not coming back up? Ever? And we're going to have to get used to it?

This could be the "new normal" for good. (Delivered with slight Scandinavian accent)

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Has it not occurred to anyone that house prices are simply not coming back up? Ever? And we're going to have to get used to it?

This could be the "new normal" for good. (Delivered with slight Scandinavian accent)

It's different this time. Just like it was the time before that, and the time before that........ :rotfl:

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Has it not occurred to anyone that house prices are simply not coming back up? Ever? And we're going to have to get used to it?

Its a possibility, but an unlikely one.

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

My position: I offered £125k for a house on the market in Q1 2012 for £135k.

I was then approached by the seller to see if I was still interested and I negotiated a £10k discount from the original offer.

I'd certainly expect a discount of £10k, considering prices had continued to slip. Given this, can you call it a discount? New price would be more accurate.


Because my mortgage offer had lapsed, I had to get another valuation. The first valuation came in at £125k and the second at £120k.

Therefore, I paid £115k for a house that was valued at £120k after the 5% drop that you are referring to. I have a 4.2% buffer where prices can fall in 2013 before the price paid exceeds the banks valuation.

Can you really speak with such confidence about one specific case? I'd say probably not. Again, too many variables.

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Only God knows this. You, I and the "experts" do not and cannot. There are far too many unknowns, both known and unknown, for anyone to make a prediction like that.

There are too many known unknowns???? This is getting a bit cryptic for me

qwert_yuiop

motorguy wrote: »

Its a possibility, but an unlikely one.

All right. Maybe so. Why?

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

marathonic wrote: »

My position: I offered £125k for a house on the market in Q1 2012 for £135k.

I was then approached by the seller to see if I was still interested and I negotiated a £10k discount from the original offer.

I'd certainly expect a discount of £10k, considering prices had continued to slip. Given this, can you call it a discount? New price would be more accurate.


Because my mortgage offer had lapsed, I had to get another valuation. The first valuation came in at £125k and the second at £120k.

Therefore, I paid £115k for a house that was valued at £120k after the 5% drop that you are referring to. I have a 4.2% buffer where prices can fall in 2013 before the price paid exceeds the banks valuation.

Can you really speak with such confidence about one specific case? I'd say probably not. Again, too many variables.

I would answer that with a resounding YES!!!! It's my case. It's what I went through last year during my house purchase. Why wouldn't I be able to speak with such confidence about this 'one specific case'?

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

There are too many known unknowns???? This is getting a bit cryptic for me

Sorry. I thought you might have remembered Donald Rumsfeld and his things we know, things we know we don't know, and things we don't know we don't know. But let's invade Iraq anyway.

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

All right. Maybe so. Why?

Because, through inflation, you would eventually end up paying more for a pint of milk than an apartment in London.