Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

I would answer that with a resounding YES!!!! It's my case. It's what I went through last year during my house purchase. Why wouldn't I be able to speak with such confidence about this 'one specific case'?

For exactly the same reason that we don't and can't know what happens next.

I hope you enjoy living in your house, but you might be protesting just a wee bit too much. You've made your commitment, as I did when I sold mine, admittedly one year too early, and you have to live with it. There's no point trying to rationalize it when you've shot your one bullet. (Although Pitrosius seems to be trying it.)

saverbuyer

marathonic wrote: »

It's different this time. Just like it was the time before that, and the time before that........ :rotfl:

Has there ever been a house price crash in N.I. before 2007?

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

Because, through inflation, you would eventually end up paying more for a pint of milk than an apartment in London.

You and I both know inflation is not the same as a return to 2007.

Anyway - 2007? The Dublin property market stopped dead around Hallowe'en 2006. Spooky. That was a massive red light to anyone buying a house in NI at grossly inflated prices thereafter.

qwert_yuiop

saverbuyer wrote: »

Has there ever been a house price crash in N.I.?

Every year between '85 and '91 saw a drop in real terms.

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

You and I both know inflation is not the same as a return to 2007.

Yeah, but I don't want a return to 2007. It would serve me no good. In the meantime, I'm happy to have slightly less outgoings than I did if I were to rent instead and for inflation to slowly eat away at the total monthly cost, and capital outstanding, of my mortgage.

If prices bump along at current levels, or even drop by less than the amount I pay off my mortgage on an annual basis, I'll be pretty happy because, should I decide to, upsizing will not be as expensive.

saverbuyer

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Every year between '85 and '91 saw a drop in real terms.

Do you know what the cumulative drops were? I'll be honest, I thought N.I. had escaped "boom & bust" because of the troubles.

qwert_yuiop

saverbuyer wrote: »

Do you know what the cumulative drops were? I'll be honest, I thought N.I. had escaped "boom & bust" because of the troubles.

Sorry, no. I'm sure it's widely available, since I read it in the FT a few years ago.

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

You and I both know inflation is not the same as a return to 2007.

You didnt mention a return to 2007 prices in the original question you posed?

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Has it not occurred to anyone that house prices are simply not coming back up? Ever? And we're going to have to get used to it?

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

All right. Maybe so. Why?

Because consumer confidence is currently very low due to the double (triple?) dip recession, lower paid jobs, banks not lending at the level they should be, etc, etc.

Over time that will change. Economically speaking it always does. It might take a year. It might take 10 years. But it always recovers.

Once it starts to recover, house prices will creep up as confidence returns.

marathonic

By the way, I'm not saying that falling prices will have no impact to me.

I'm currently on a 65% LTV and a 2-year discounted mortgage. I intend to apply for a market leading 60% LTV product when the 2 years are up.

If rates were similar to today, which is unlikely, a 5-year fix would be available for 2.79% (I'm currently paying 2.9%).

If house prices fall, I'll have to save an extra £4,000 for every £10,000 drop just to get to the 60% LTV required.

When I get on the 60% LTV rate, price changes will have no impact to me.