Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index

edited 30 November -1 at 1:00AM in N. Ireland
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marathonicmarathonic Forumite
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edited 30 November -1 at 1:00AM in N. Ireland
Don't forget, the latest report is out tomorrow. Should be available here:

http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/lps/statistics-and-research-publications.htm

Personally, I predict drops for Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, but not as big as the previous years. Therefore, I think the annual rate of decline will reduce from the current 12% to well into the single digits as 2013 progresses.

When we see 3 consecutive quarters of rises, there is no doubt that the media will be falling over themselves to report it and this, in itself, will result in further rises.

It will probably be Spring 2014 before the annual change turns positive.
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  • tommietommie Forumite
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    With more and more auctions and repos coming on the market this year i reckon the downward trend will continue for a long time yet.

    and please remember....
    "Never try and catch a falling knife. Wait for it to hit the ground then pick it up" !
  • marathonicmarathonic Forumite
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    tommie wrote: »
    With more and more auctions and repos coming on the market this year i reckon the downward trend will continue for a long time yet.

    and please remember....
    "Never try and catch a falling knife. Wait for it to hit the ground then pick it up" !

    That may hold true for the stock market where liquidity is very good. However, I feel that picking a point in the downturn where it makes sense, based on your personal circumstances, to buy and taking the risk will probably pay the most rewards if you time it to within 2-3 quarters of the bottom.

    At the end of the day, I negotiated a 14.8% discount to asking price (23.3% discount to rateable value) on my purchase in December. The banks valuation actually came in higher than the price paid.

    If you wait until there's a couple of consecutive positive quarters, not only will you be up to 5% above the bottom anyway, but you are unlikely to negotiate such discounts when potential sellers see an increasing number of positive media stories.

    Basically, if we drop 10% from here and then get 2 quarters of 2% growth, we'll only be 6% below current prices - and this will be wiped out by the sole fact that you'll be unable to negotiate a discount anywhere near 14.8%.

    Gazumping will once again become rife and a lot of people could find themselves paying mortgage arrangement and valuation fees only for the seller to pull out due to a quarterly report surfacing showing another 5% rise in prices.
  • Old_GitOld_Git Forumite
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    a high percentage off houses coming on the market now are ropos ,and we still have to deal with the properties from NAMA .
    I was looking at two on property pal tonight .both in the same developement ,one was offers over £102,000 the other was offer around £88,000 .I wonder which will sell first .
    "Do not regret growing older, it's a privilege denied to many"
  • tommie wrote: »
    With more and more auctions and repos coming on the market this year i reckon the downward trend will continue for a long time yet.

    and please remember....
    "Never try and catch a falling knife. Wait for it to hit the ground then pick it up" !

    I agree. The downward trend will continue for a long time. The best homeowners can hope for is stagnation.

    To suggest gazumping is going to happen anytime soon is delusional.
  • marathonicmarathonic Forumite
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    saverbuyer wrote: »
    I agree. The downward trend will continue for a long time. The best homeowners can hope for is stagnation.

    To suggest gazumping is going to happen anytime soon is delusional.

    Gazumping will return. Did I say anywhere that it was going to happen soon?

    It'll take two or three quarters of rising prices before the annual figures turn positive. With this, media will be jumping on the story and confidence will quickly return.

    If you are suggesting that a seller, who accepts an offer of, for example, £100,000 will not accept a higher offer of, for example, £105,000 during the period where the potential buyer is applying for their mortgage (which can take months), then I'm afraid you are the one who is delusional.

    We had up to 6% quarterly falls on the way down. A single quarterly 6% rise, reported in the media, would result in widespread gazumping.
  • edited 20 February 2013 at 9:56AM
    saverbuyersaverbuyer Forumite
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    edited 20 February 2013 at 9:56AM
    It'll take two or three quarters of rising prices before the annual figures turn positive. With this, media will be jumping on the story and confidence will quickly return.

    But people don't buy house with media sentiment do they? They buy them with deposits and credit. They buy them with salaries?

    Transactions are down 70% since 2007. The average deposit required to buy is nearly 20%. Do you see many buyers waiting on the wings with 20K deposits?
    If you are suggesting that a seller, who accepts an offer of, for example, £100,000 will not accept a higher offer of, for example, £105,000 during the period where the potential buyer is applying for their mortgage

    I'm suggesting there are no buyers. Easy credit is not coming back.
    We had up to 6% quarterly falls on the way down. A single quarterly 6% rise, reported in the media, would result in widespread gazumping.

    Do tell us what magical conditions will cause these 6% quarterly rises. Perhaps it will be the 60,000 builders, who have lost their jobs finding instant employment, or perhaps our public sector workers will get 50% pay rises instead of 1%, or maybe our jobless count will suddenly drop, or maybe the N.I economy will show GDP growth instead of 6 years of contraction.

    House prices will rise eventually but not until all these problems above and many more are fixed. House price growth is the result of a growing economy not a dead one.
  • marathonicmarathonic Forumite
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    saverbuyer wrote: »
    But people don't buy house with media sentiment do they? They buy them with deposits and credit. They buy them with salaries?


    Not 100% correct. I know of people renting and saving who are well able to afford but aren't until prices return to positive territory. They get this information from the media. In saying "don't catch a falling knife" is this not what you are suggesting to do?

    saverbuyer wrote: »
    Transactions are down 70% since 2007. The average deposit required to buy is nearly 20%. Do you see many buyers waiting on the wings with 20K deposits?

    If there are over 2,060 transactions in todays report for Q4 2012, then 2012 will represent the most transactions since 2007. Do you really expect them to jump to 2007 levels overnight?

    I know of people with deposits waiting on the wings. I'm not sure of exactly what percentage deposits. I also know of someone last year who bought with a 5% deposit, albeit, with a 5.99% interest rate. Your 20% figure is the average in order to secure a good rate. Not everyone aims for that good rate.



    saverbuyer wrote: »
    I'm suggesting there are no buyers. Easy credit is not coming back.


    Credit DOES NOT need to return to 2007 levels in order for prices to rise - it merely needs to improve when compared to last year. I'm seeing some very good rates on the market these days so the funding for lending scheme seems to be working to a certain extent.



    saverbuyer wrote: »
    Do tell us what magical conditions will cause these 6% quarterly rises. Perhaps it will be the 60,000 builders, who have lost their jobs finding instant employment, or perhaps our public sector workers will get 50% pay rises instead of 1%, or maybe our jobless count will suddenly drop, or maybe the N.I economy will show GDP growth instead of 6 years of contraction.

    Like the credit argument, we don't need the same level of employment as 2007 for prices to rise - just slight improvements on last year (I realise we are not there yet but GDP will not contract indefinately).

    Tell me, do you think there is a bigger risk of more negative shocks causing 6% declines or more positive events transpiring that result in 6% rises? I feel that the worst is behind us.
    House prices will rise eventually but not until all these problems above and many more are fixed. House price growth is the result of a growing economy not a dead one.
  • marathonicmarathonic Forumite
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    The report is just out. The Q4 2012 drop was 3%, mirroring the Q4 2011 drop.

    This figure, having bought in December 2012, will serve as a baseline for me to determine whether I made the right decision in the quarters and years to come.

    There were 3,693 transactions so, as I expected, transactions are at their highest since 2007.

    My region, North of Northern Ireland, showed a quarterly decline of 1% bringing the rate of annual decline down from 14% to 10%.

    There was a significant rise in the number of properties sold in the 40k - 60k price bracket which would tie in well with the increase in the number of repossesions.
  • Detached down 5% over the quarter.

    Eats into that £270 "saved" by buying.
  • marathonicmarathonic Forumite
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    saverbuyer wrote: »
    Detached down 5% over the quarter.

    Eats into that £270 "saved" by buying.

    If you'd bought at the end of Q3 2012 yes.

    Like I say, I feel it's best to pick a point on the way down and take the plunge. If you get it timed within a few quarters, you're doing okay.

    Scenario: I buy in Q1 2013 and someone else wants to see two consecutive quarterly rises:

    Q2 and Q3 show falls of 3% per quarter followed by a 0% change in Q4 and two rises of 2% in Q1 and Q2 2014. The person waiting for rises then decides to buy.

    I would have negotiated a good discount considering the amount of fear still evident in the market. If my negotiated discount exceeds the discount available in a rising market by 2%, then I'm in the same position as the person who waited.


    My position: I offered £125k for a house on the market in Q1 2012 for £135k. Due to messing around with, what I believe were, phantom bidders on the sellers part, the sale fell through in Q3. I was then approached by the seller to see if I was still interested and I negotiated a £10k discount from the original offer. Because my mortgage offer had lapsed, I had to get another valuation. The first valuation came in at £125k and the second at £120k.

    Therefore, I paid £115k for a house that was valued at £120k after the 5% drop that you are referring to. I have a 4.2% buffer where prices can fall in 2013 before the price paid exceeds the banks valuation.
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