Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index

motorguy

marathonic wrote: »

I hope the "can't see the falls stopping for at least 3 years" quote was made in 2010 :rotfl:

No, 3rd Jan 2013....

Post #13

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4365869

Thats a bit embarassing....

marathonic

motorguy wrote: »

No, 3rd Jan 2013....

Post #13

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4365869

Thats a bit embarassing....

3 days after the bottom..

motorguy

marathonic wrote: »

3 days after the bottom..

Well that was a bit of a conversation killer

qwert_yuiop

Well, it's all over.

Safe to go back in the water?

Or just the classic bull trap/sucker rally?

Northern Ireland recovers (just in time for the Mother of all Crashes in London), or just statistical noise before another leg down?

I don't know either.

BigAl94

There is no real recovery, sales are happening due to built up demand and some fairly realistic prices. Any hint of recovery will soon dissipate when interest rates start to rise.

qwert_yuiop

Well you can probably say the crash, if defined as double digit annual drops, is either over or paused. I wouldn't be too sure about this marking any great turnaround.
I believe any serious reversal in London will influence sentiment throughout the British isles, and the market there is looking like here in 2006.

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Well you can probably say the crash, if defined as double digit annual drops, is either over or paused. I wouldn't be too sure about this marking any great turnaround.
I believe any serious reversal in London will influence sentiment throughout the British isles, and the market there is looking like here in 2006.

General consensus from commentators seems to suggest that with unemployment falling, the economy out of recession and increased lending we are likely to see 'normality' again.

Interesting that house sales themselves are UP significantly too which is being seen as a positive sign.

BigAl94

motorguy wrote: »

General consensus from commentators seems to suggest that with unemployment falling, the economy out of recession and increased lending we are likely to see 'normality' again.

Interesting that house sales themselves are UP significantly too which is being seen as a positive sign.

Look at the personal debt figures released today, £1.43 trillion - just think about the effect of interest rate rises on this! Unemployment may be falling but so are disposable incomes and these will fall substantially more as the cost of servicing debt rises coupled with ever increasing utility bills.


A "feel good" factor may be engineered by politicians in the run up to the 2015 elections but another crunch will come thereafter.


Recession Mk2 is 2/3 years away.

motorguy

BigAl94 wrote: »

Look at the personal debt figures released today, £1.43 trillion - just think about the effect of interest rate rises on this! Unemployment may be falling but so are disposable incomes and these will fall substantially more as the cost of servicing debt rises coupled with ever increasing utility bills.


A "feel good" factor may be engineered by politicians in the run up to the 2015 elections but another crunch will come thereafter.


Recession Mk2 is 2/3 years away.

I doubt it.

Irrespective, i've no vested interest in prices going down or up as we're not selling for a long time to come.

Clearly the people with the dilemma are those who are looking on to the property ladder. Prices of detached are up since this time last year so holding off has cost them approx £5,000 on the price of an average detached.

If that continues someone continuing to rent will be £15,000 worse off if they jump on to the property ladder in two years time. OR it *might* stay static OR it *might* go down - and of course in the meantime they're paying out rent month in month out. :eek:

Certainly all the signs are that prices are going up, so that puts renters on the back foot as to what to do.

marathonic

BigAl94 wrote: »

There is no real recovery, sales are happening due to built up demand and some fairly realistic prices. Any hint of recovery will soon dissipate when interest rates start to rise.

Okay, so if rising prices coupled with rising transaction levels isn't considered a 'real recovery', can you please define a 'real recovery' for us?

Obviously, you are a bear. If I had asked you to define a 'real recovery' this time last year, I imagine you would have talked about year on year increases in house prices together with an increase in transactions. Now that both are in place, what bearish slant are you going to put on todays news?

I'm contantly hearing people talk about employment levels of the early-mid 2000's without realising that we don't need employment levels or bank lending to return to 2007 levels to get year-on-year increases in house prices - we just need them to improve on last year (or, at least, not deteriorate further).