Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index

tommie

A few of the vested interests in this thread will have wound their neck in after watching Jim Fitzpatrick on tonights Spotlight,

here if you missed it Spotlight http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03jdhzk/Spotlight_19_11_2013/

interesting to note is Conor Devine of GDP Debt Management stating there are three sets of people in the province, 10% are doing quite well, profits are up, but most people fall into the next two catagories, those that are running out of money, and those that have ran out of money.

Another disturbing fact is that there are now 11, yes eleven, Food Banks throughout the province,
One in four under 25`s are unemployed, repossessions are on the up, families finding it harder to make ends meet, energy prices, food prices, etc..


but Hey! don`t worry about all that folks, don`t you know house prices are rocketing!!


aye, right...

motorguy

tommie wrote: »

but Hey! don`t worry about all that folks, don`t you know house prices are rocketing!!


aye, right...

No one said prices are rocketing. No one wants prices to rocket.

However a "stable" but healthy housing market is a good thing generally - which is what those of us who dont have a vested interest in prices going further down the pan want.

A market dropping further certainly isnt going to help the alleged 90% you seem so concerned about.

Mistral001

tommie wrote: »

A few of the vested interests in this thread will have wound their neck in after watching Jim Fitzpatrick on tonights Spotlight,

here if you missed it Spotlight http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03jdhzk/Spotlight_19_11_2013/

interesting to note is Conor Devine of GDP Debt Management stating there are three sets of people in the province, 10% are doing quite well, profits are up, but most people fall into the next two catagories, those that are running out of money, and those that have ran out of money.

Another disturbing fact is that there are now 11, yes eleven, Food Banks throughout the province,
One in four under 25`s are unemployed, repossessions are on the up, families finding it harder to make ends meet, energy prices, food prices, etc..


but Hey! don`t worry about all that folks, don`t you know house prices are rocketing!!


aye, right...

Yes I saw the programme. The presenter said that repossessions were up this year. I was surprised at that. I would have thought repossessions would have peaked a few years ago. Are the banks and mortgage lenders getting tougher?

marathonic

tommie wrote: »

A few of the vested interests in this thread will have wound their neck in after watching Jim Fitzpatrick on tonights Spotlight

It's easy to cherry pick an article or program with a bearish commentator. I could probably find 5 recent bullish commentators' articles for every 1 recent bearish commentators article that you could find, if I had the time and inclination.

tommie wrote: »

interesting to note is Conor Devine of GDP Debt Management stating there are three sets of people in the province, 10% are doing quite well, profits are up, but most people fall into the next two catagories, those that are running out of money, and those that have ran out of money.

People and profits? Are you talking about people or companies because people don't make profits. You need to provide some more evidence to support such claims. And the figure of 10% doesn't appear correct to me. Not when I look at people in my social circles or when I look at people in retail outlets doing their christmas shopping.

tommie wrote: »

Another disturbing fact is that there are now 11, yes eleven, Food Banks throughout the province

Yes, and the vast majority of people that use these food banks are people who are unlikely to have purchased anyway, either now or during the boom times. These people are more likely to have been renting and, therefore, have minimal impact on house prices.

tommie wrote: »

One in four under 25`s are unemployed, repossessions are on the up, families finding it harder to make ends meet, energy prices, food prices, etc..

If all this is indeed correct, and I don't doubt you on most of it, it means that prices are currently rising in spite of this. That means that, as each factor improves, house prices will improve further.

As I referred to above, with respect to future house price movements, a 25% unemplyment rate doesn't matter as much as whether this rate is 23% or 27% next year.

The same can be said for all of the factors above. They are the reason that prices are as low as they are today, not the reason that house prices should move lower again. It's the future trend we should be concerned with and, personally, I can see things improving during 2014.

tommie wrote: »

but Hey! don`t worry about all that folks, don`t you know house prices are rocketing!!

I'm not worrying in the least. I'm just counting my lucky stars I got into the market last December. Don't get me wrong, I could still afford next year. It's just that there's a good chance that I would have had to downgrade from a detached to a semi if the current price movements were to continue.

Mistral001

marathonic wrote: »

Yes, and the vast majority of people that use these food banks are people who are unlikely to have purchased anyway, either now or during the boom times. These people are more likely to have been renting and, therefore, have minimal impact on house prices.

.

The Spotlight programme last year, if I remember, interviewed volunteers at one of the food banks who said many of the people that they were giving food boxes to were small business owners. Small business owners typically do not rent property in my experience.

motorguy

Mistral001 wrote: »

Small business owners typically do not rent property in my experience.

On what are you basing that on?

Are you saying small business owners are more likely to buy houses than to rent, and if so where are you getting that statistic?

marathonic

Mistral001 wrote: »

Yes I saw the programme. The presenter said that repossessions were up this year. I was surprised at that. I would have thought repossessions would have peaked a few years ago. Are the banks and mortgage lenders getting tougher?

I think a certain percentage of people are strategic defaulters as well. I know of at least one who can afford payments but is considering bankruptcy due to negative equity levels. That couple are defaulting on mortgage payments through choice. Cases like this will cease to exist when we're in the heart of a rising market.

Regarding reposessions, the number of orders handed out rose 20% between Q3 2012 and Q3 2013. However, new cases received by the courts reduced by 5%. This is yet another example of the future looking better.

The Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index is the report that includes sales through repossession so, again, prices are rising in spite of these lower valued sales.

Mistral001

motorguy wrote: »

On what are you basing that on?

Are you saying small business owners are more likely to buy houses than to rent, and if so where are you getting that statistic?

I said in my post that I was basing it on my experience.

motorguy

Mistral001 wrote: »

I said in my post that I was basing it on my experience.

So summarising....

You recall from a year ago watching a TV programme whereby some helper was interviewed and said in their opinion small business owners were among those using the food banks and in your experience small business owners are likely to own their home rather than renting it, therefore house prices are likely to go down??

Mistral001

motorguy wrote: »

So summarising....

You recall from a year ago watching a TV programme whereby some helper was interviewed and said in their opinion small business owners were among those using the food banks and in your experience small business owners are likely to own their home rather than renting it, therefore house prices are likely to go down??

I only mentioned repossessions. I have not mentioned anything about house prices.