Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index

saverbuyer

doesn't like tables

marathonic

saverbuyer wrote: »

Sorry, hasn't Derry detached gone from 140K to 145K.


Isn't that 3.5%

Three points:

• The figures you are looking at are the average price over the year for various property prices. Although still positive, they aren't useful in determining 12-month performance as, even a 20% rise in the final quarter would have had a <5% increase in these two figures;
• Further still, there were 4,827 transactions over the year which is a pretty good number to base statistics on. If you break that down to detached properties only, you are looking at a sample size of less than 400. If you break that down further to detached properties in Derry, you are probably looking at a sample size of 20 or 30. If you know anything about statistics, you wouldn't even argue your case, bearish or bullish, using these numbers. Therefore, whilst I'm happy to see a 3.5% rise in the figure, I take it with a grain of salt and look at the headline figures instead;
• Finally, if you are trying to throw doubt against my own circumstances having bought a detached house in Derry, you should also bear in mind that I got a good reduction on my property and the valuation done by the bank came in at almost 9% above my purchase price.

Now tell me this, we can debate all day back and forth, but have you came up with an argument that I haven't been able to come up with a perfectly reasonable counter-argument thus far?

I would love if these boards were more like a proper debate where there's a time-limit after which someone can say "ladies, gentlemen, distinguished guests, thank you for listening to our debaters today, marathonic wins this topic"

saverbuyer

marathonic wrote: »

Three points:

• The figures you are looking at are the average price over the year for various property prices. Although still positive, they aren't useful in determining 12-month performance as, even a 20% rise in the final quarter would have had a <5% increase in these two figures;
• Further still, there were 4,827 transactions over the year which is a pretty good number to base statistics on. If you break that down to detached properties only, you are looking at a sample size of less than 400. If you break that down further to detached properties in Derry, you are probably looking at a sample size of 20 or 30. If you know anything about statistics, you wouldn't even argue your case, bearish or bullish, using these numbers. Therefore, whilst I'm happy to see a 3.5% rise in the figure, I take it with a grain of salt and look at the headline figures instead;
• Finally, if you are trying to throw doubt against my own circumstances having bought a detached house in Derry, you should also bear in mind that I got a good reduction on my property and the valuation done by the bank came in at almost 9% above my purchase price.

Now tell me this, we can debate all day back and forth, but have you came up with an argument that I haven't been able to come up with a perfectly reasonable counter-argument thus far?

I would love if these boards were more like a proper debate where there's a time-limit after which someone can say "ladies, gentlemen, distinguished guests, thank you for listening to our debaters today, marathonic wins this topic"

I'm afraid the only thing you've won is a place on my ignore list.

motorguy

saverbuyer wrote: »

I'm afraid the only thing you've won is a place on my ignore list.

You mean if you ignore the facts, you hope they'll go away?

saverbuyer

motorguy wrote: »

You mean if you ignore the facts, you hope they'll go away?

I'm going to mark this thread Paul.

We'll come back to it in a year.

Two BTL landlords telling us that now is the time to buy, you'll miss the boat.

Reminds me of 2007-2009.

Of course the economy is recovering. We only borrowed £120 billion last year on top of the £2 trillion we already owe. :eek:

But sure, the economy is recovering. Borrow people, it's all getting better. Paul with his BTL is telling us house prices are only going one way.

I'm out.

marathonic

saverbuyer wrote: »

I'm afraid the only thing you've won is a place on my ignore list.

Another thing to celebrate on top of the increased equity in my house...

And I normally win nothing!!! :j

motorguy

saverbuyer wrote: »

I'm going to mark this thread Paul.

We'll come back to it in a year.

You mean like we've come back to this one a year on and the market HAS moved up?

saverbuyer wrote: »

Two BTL landlords telling us that now is the time to buy, you'll miss the boat.

Not saying that at all. Saying that "all the signs are there" that the market has previously bottomed out and is recovering.

saverbuyer wrote: »

Reminds me of 2007-2009.

You'd best sit tight and never buy then because i suspect everything will "remind you of 2007-2009" therefore you'll never buy. Meanwhile those of us living in the present...

saverbuyer wrote: »

Of course the economy is recovering. We only borrowed £120 billion last year on top of the £2 trillion we already owe. :eek:

And thats your own personal reason for not buying? Because the country owes money?

saverbuyer wrote: »

But sure, the economy is recovering. Borrow people, it's all getting better. Paul with his BTL is telling us house prices are only going one way.

I'm out.

Personally, i dont really give a monkeys. Not buying, not selling. I just find it bemusing that the "bears" on this thread cant admit what the rest of us see.

marathonic

Increase of 3% reported today for Q1 2014 compared to Q4 2013.

This represents an annual increase of 7%.

Onwards and upwards!!!

marathonic

marathonic wrote: »

Throughout last year, I saw continuous drops in asking prices in PropertyPal. The frequency of such reductions reduced significantly throughout 2013 and, as of yet, I don't see any evidence of them returning to the levels of recent years. For this reason, I wasn't too surprised when the improvements in the market were further confirmed by each quarterly report.

Whether we see double digit growth next year remains to be seen. Personally, I'd be very surprised if we saw double digit drops again over the next decade. The potential reward vastly outweighs the risk involved in buying at current levels.

http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/lps/ni_rppi_statistical_report_q2_2014.pdf

And there we have it - back to double digit growth!

marathonic

saverbuyer wrote: »

I'm going to mark this thread Paul.

We'll come back to it in a year.

Two BTL landlords telling us that now is the time to buy, you'll miss the boat.

Reminds me of 2007-2009.

Of course the economy is recovering. We only borrowed £120 billion last year on top of the £2 trillion we already owe. :eek:

But sure, the economy is recovering. Borrow people, it's all getting better. Paul with his BTL is telling us house prices are only going one way.

I'm out.

Hi,

Here we are, one year later.

http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/lps/ni_rppi_statistical_report_q4_2014.pdf

Over the past year, prices have rose 8% and there was a 22% increase in volumes of sales.

I imagine the next report will show a reduction in sales at the £120K-£125K level due to the stamp duty changes made recently.

My purchase in Q4 2012, together with capital payments on my mortgage and increased values in properties has allowed me to take advantage of the really good 60% LTV mortgages on the market at the moment - with a choice of 5-years fixed at 2.59% or 10-years fixed at 2.89% with my bank (lower available elsewhere).

I don't see prices as overpriced at the moment and still see 2015 showing some increases in prices - albeit, probably slightly below the 8% recorded in 2014.