Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index

marathonic

belfastgirl23 wrote: »

lol surely this is someone looking for publicity by getting their friends to queue? 300 houses. I can't imagine you'd need to be queuing for that....I'd imagine they'll be begging people to take them.

There might be 300 houses but people will have their priorities and/or budget constraints.

Let's say there are 300 houses but only one in six is a 4-bed detached. Usually, the same style of house is priced the same. However, in the above scenario, there are 50 detached 4-bed houses.

Of those 50, you would expect about 20 to have an above average size garden so, because a big garden is a must-have for me, that limits my choices further.

Now, I really want a south facing garden to make the most of the sun. That cuts my choice down to about 5 of the 20 houses.

People don't simply say - 'there's 300 houses in the development and I want any one of them so there's no need to queue'.

If I'll queue overnight for a Garth Brooks ticket, why wouldn't I queue overnight for a house that I could be spending 20 years, or more, in?

waltsalt

A bit of the self-fulfilling prophecy problem again. If the media tell people house prices are going up people are gonna rush out to buy a house before it's too late again - pushing prices up further.

Same happened during the crash. If you were going to buy a house and the media told you house prices were falling then you'd wait until it was cheaper and then there was no movement in the market whatsoever.

We should just ban all forms of media and communications. Sorted.

warmhands.coldheart

waltsalt wrote: »

A bit of the self-fulfilling prophecy problem again. If the media tell people house prices are going up people are gonna rush out to buy a house before it's too late again - pushing prices up further.

Same happened during the crash. If you were going to buy a house and the media told you house prices were falling then you'd wait until it was cheaper and then there was no movement in the market whatsoever.

We should just ban all forms of media and communications. Sorted.

Now come on waltsalt... that's ridiculous.... The media only ever publish the facts.... :rotfl:

motorguy

Well the house sale went through yesterday and the new owners have possession. :beer:

For those new to the thread, it was a 4 bed detached, garage, nice site in a small development in Waringstown.

Just to put timescales on it, we put the house on the market the week before christmas, so it was ready for the start of the new year.

We put it on the market at about 15% over RV and had steady viewings throughout january - maybe 1 a week.

At the end of the month we accepted an offer about 9% over RV. I would say we could have held out and got a bit more, but by this stage our tenants had moved out, so we'd no rental income so it made sense to let it go.

Completion took longer than expected - our buyer had a buyer but it all fell into place in the end

At the bottom of the market we were probably -10K equity, and after fees we're probably +30K so worked out well in the end.

Of interest

• despite the nay sayers, houses outside of belfast can make above RV if its the right house
• We had a steady amount of viewings which suggests there are buyers out there.
• Neither our buyer nor our buyers buyer seemed to have much problem getting a mortgage
• It was a relatively pain free process end to end.

If anyone has a genuine interest in the specifics p/m me and i'll send them on - i dont think its fair on the buyer to publish address / price etc on a public forum.

Likewise if you've worked out the house in question, i'd appreciate it if you didnt put specifics on here.

Hope this helps someone.

marathonic

Just a heads up - the next report is out tomorrow.

marathonic

http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/lps/ni_rppi_q1_2015_statistical_report.pdf

The above link takes you to the Q1 2015 report.

As you'll see, prices are down 1% over the quarter - the first quarterly drop in the last 2 years worth of reports.

It'll be interesting to see if this is a blip in the figures or the start of a new downward trend.

qwert_yuiop

Well - the bird's in the burrow, the rabbit's in the air and the fox is chasing the hounds - house prices are breaking the laws of physics again by falling in the first quarter.

Well done motorguy for getting that sale.

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/lps/ni_rppi_q1_2015_statistical_report.pdf

The above link takes you to the Q1 2015 report.

As you'll see, prices are down 1% over the quarter - the first quarterly drop in the last 2 years worth of reports.

It'll be interesting to see if this is a blip in the figures or the start of a new downward trend.

What's your prediction? Bearing in mind that trends tend to be self-reinforcing by their influence on sentiment, it has been shown that soft landings never happen after property bubbles. Once the belief takes hold that prices are falling, no one buys, causing price cuts to be exaggerated to attract any interest. Another meltdown? Who knows? Remember the late crash of 2007 had kicked in before the credit crunch and financial crisis, so we don't need any obvious disaster to change thinking.

Something else - volumes are well down, aren't they?

warmhands.coldheart

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

What's your prediction?

Personally I think they will stall as there will be inevitably 20,000 less public sector jobs over the next 4/5 years here in Northern Ireland either way and more cuts to welfare from central government are on their way...... Considering there are a lot (more than average) of both benefit claimants and public sector workers here in N.I. it'll hit us harder !!

qwert_yuiop

Benefit claimants don't buy houses. They have their rent paid for them, so it will take a drop in housing benefits to cause a dive in that area of the market.
I can't for the life of me see what the big problem with state owned houses was. Nowadays, the money just goes to landlords instead of into council housing.