Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

What's your prediction? Bearing in mind that trends tend to be self-reinforcing by their influence on sentiment, it has been shown that soft landings never happen after property bubbles.

There is no downward trend yet though - just a single, outlying, negative report.

I believe it's a blip in the figures and that prices will be positive overall for 2015. That being said, I don't think the rises will be significant enough to advise anyone to panic buy.

If I was on the market for a house, I would feel comfortable enough waiting - not under the expectation of price falls, rather, waiting for the right house to come along.

If you're looking for estimated percentage figures from me, I'd say an overall rise of 3-4% for 2015 - meaning a rise of 4-5% over the final three quarters of the year (given we've already had a 1% drop).

Old_Git

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Benefit claimants don't buy houses. They have their rent paid for them, so it will take a drop in housing benefits to cause a dive in that area of the market.
I can't for the life of me see what the big problem with state owned houses was. Nowadays, the money just goes to landlords instead of into council housing.

Housing benefit has already dropped ,just waiting for the bedroom tax to kick in .

I had two people approach me last week to rent a property of me .
first one was 35 and would have received £71 housing benefit ,but I made my own enquires and discovered he had been up for GBH after he took a hammer to his girlfriend .

Second person was female aged 22 .Her family are moving to England .However she will only get £45 per week housing benefit .

I ruled out both of them for different reasons .
Third person to view is working but doesn't get paid until next Tuesday .Provided he has the money next Tuesday the place is his .

qwert_yuiop

Old_Git wrote: »

Housing benefit has already dropped ,just waiting for the bedroom tax to kick in .

I had two people approach me last week to rent a property of me .
first one was 35 and would have received £71 housing benefit ,but I made my own enquires and discovered he had been up for GBH after he took a hammer to his girlfriend .

Second person was female aged 22 .Her family are moving to England .However she will only get £45 per week housing benefit .

I ruled out both of them for different reasons .
Third person to view is working but doesn't get paid until next Tuesday .Provided he has the money next Tuesday the place is his .

Interesting. I wonder how the "no DHSS" market is going.

I hear these stories about domestic violence and always wonder have these girls no male relatives. Should that lad not expect a late night visit from a few brothers, cousins, nephews, grandfathers?

qwert_yuiop

marathonic wrote: »

There is no downward trend yet though - just a single, outlying, negative report.

I believe it's a blip in the figures and that prices will be positive overall for 2015. That being said, I don't think the rises will be significant enough to advise anyone to panic buy.

If I was on the market for a house, I would feel comfortable enough waiting - not under the expectation of price falls, rather, waiting for the right house to come along.

If you're looking for estimated percentage figures from me, I'd say an overall rise of 3-4% for 2015 - meaning a rise of 4-5% over the final three quarters of the year (given we've already had a 1% drop).

Well, I'm afraid that statement is evidence free, defining it as a guess rather than an estimate. No doubt we'll visit this again in three months' time.
Anyway, I'm out of the market as of last year - the only thing I want to see increase is my silage crop. Will you be needing a few bales?

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Well, I'm afraid that statement is evidence free, defining it as a guess rather than an estimate. No doubt we'll visit this again in three months' time.
Anyway, I'm out of the market as of last year - the only thing I want to see increase is my silage crop. Will you be needing a few bales?

Guesses and estimates are all we have. It's clear from the property market, in particular the UK, that the market rarely tends to behave in a manner that one would expect, given the various economic indicators that should impact it.

From the start of this thread, which also happened to be the bottom of the market, my predictions of price rises were argued against by most, although they happened to be correct - albeit, even I was too pessimistic with my original predictions.

That being said, I can't always be right so only time will tell.

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Well done motorguy for getting that sale.

I genuinely saw no issues with the market. We had a steady flow of viewers and it sold quickly and that was outside belfast - despite being told on forums that we'd no hope of getting RV

The difference - as was described by an agent - was that ten years ago you would get a couple of people hopefully bidding it up past the asking price, now you have to hope someone comes along with an offer close to the asking price and try to tie something down with them.

This is exactly what we saw happening.

I dont see one report with a 1% drop in it being necessarily the start of a downward trend.

There were people after all saying that houses outside of belfast werent even making RV and we got well past that for ours. Also, most developments have reopened and are doing healthy business in new sales.

I'll be honest, what we saw was fully in line with my view of how the market is, and i've no reason to think that has changed in the last couple of months.

motorguy

marathonic wrote: »

There is no downward trend yet though - just a single, outlying, negative report.

I believe it's a blip in the figures and that prices will be positive overall for 2015. That being said, I don't think the rises will be significant enough to advise anyone to panic buy.

If I was on the market for a house, I would feel comfortable enough waiting - not under the expectation of price falls, rather, waiting for the right house to come along.

If you're looking for estimated percentage figures from me, I'd say an overall rise of 3-4% for 2015 - meaning a rise of 4-5% over the final three quarters of the year (given we've already had a 1% drop).

Totally agree with you on that.

funkey_monkey

What is happening in the markets at the minute. Is there a lack of supply pushing up prices and will this fall back when supply increases?

Been looking in SE Belfast and prices are rising sharply at the minute.

motorguy

funkey_monkey wrote: »

What is happening in the markets at the minute. Is there a lack of supply pushing up prices and will this fall back when supply increases?

Been looking in SE Belfast and prices are rising sharply at the minute.

Who knows.

Prices have been moving up for a couple of years now - against what they nay sayers have been saying - and are continuing to rise - against what the nay sayers are saying.

Prices are still well below what they were at their peak in 07/08 however there has been a reported drop in the London area recently - however that could just mean an adjustment for the crazy prices we were seeing there, and it might just encourage investors to look further afield.

qwert_yuiop

motorguy wrote: »

Who knows.

Prices have been moving up for a couple of years now - against what they nay sayers have been saying - and are continuing to rise - against what the nay sayers are saying.

.

Apart from the recent drops. So yea, that's a nay.