We WILL get an EU referendum

Graham_Devon

ValHaller wrote: »

Like it. Mobilise all the UKIP voters. Challenge the tories to position themselves

And all of your conerns about staying the EU go out of the window?

Purely to trump the tories? Rush ahead of the negotiations, end up out of the EU, but that's alright, cus we got one over the tories, yee haa.

Says a lot really.

GeorgeHowell

StevieJ wrote: »

He has been a bit smarter than that in attempting to deceive the British population, no negotiations until after the next election.

There's no negotiations until after the election because Clegg won't allow it.

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

He has been a bit smarter than that in attempting to deceive the British population, no negotiations until after the next election.

As you keep ignoring. They are in a coalition at the moment (which is bizzare, as the fact they are in a coalition is at the forefront of the discussion whenever support for the party is bought into debate). Cameron's hands are tied by that. They could only do this is the lib dems agreed.

ValHaller

Graham_Devon wrote: »

.... Cameron has become a Statesman overnight according to some in the EU. They are now willing to listen. They are now, crucially, as per Angela Merkel, willing to negotiate.

Hmm. Sure if she says she is willing to negotiate, then sure enough, I believe she will.

But she ain't daft. She set the ball rolling on treaty negotiations which prompted Cameron to say he was going to make a speech 6 months ago. And then a few days before the speech she said that most of the things required could be done without a treaty change.

My money is on a continuing invitation to open negotiations with the intention of getting Cameron to start putting down some demands before the next election. He can hardly refuse, but I think it will be as difficult a position to make the demands before the election as after in terms of appeasing his eurosceptics, gaining broad domestic approval and putting down some realistic demands. But it will be far worse for him to fight an election on negotiations which Merkel will take thinking time and leave the uncertainty hanging over Cameron.

It is payback time for vetoing the things required for Euro stability a year ago.

Graham_Devon

ValHaller wrote: »

Hmm. Sure if she says she is willing to negotiate, then sure enough, I believe she will.

But she ain't daft. She set the ball rolling on treaty negotiations which prompted Cameron to say he was going to make a speech 6 months ago. And then a few days before the speech she said that most of the things required could be done without a treaty change.

My money is on a continuing invitation to open negotiations with the intention of getting Cameron to start putting down some demands before the next election. He can hardly refuse, but I think it will be as difficult a position to make the demands before the election as after in terms of appeasing his eurosceptics, gaining broad domestic approval and putting down some realistic demands. But it will be far worse for him to fight an election on negotiations which Merkel will take thinking time and leave the uncertainty hanging over Cameron.

It is payback time for vetoing the things required for Euro stability a year ago.

I'd just sit back for a moment. Only yesterday I think it was you, who was saying there would be no negotiation and how stupid the tories were.

Now you have having to change your stance somewhat (May have been someone else, if it is, I apologise, but the coments have all been pretty much the same).

Germany, clearly, needs us as much as we need them. The referendum and potential loss of Europe has Angela changing her stance, and now others in the EU coming to terms with the fact they need us, they will have to do something, otherwise we'll be gone, under mandate of the British people.

Wait for the outcome, instead of jumping the gun and telling us what will happen.

It was the same when Cameron used his veto, labour supporters, and Ed Milliband and the loabour party jumping in to say he's destroyed our position in the EU. He didn't. It lasted one day, and the bluff from the EU lot soon died down.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Cameron has become a Statesman overnight according to some in the EU. They are now willing to listen. They are now, crucially, as per Angela Merkel, willing to negotiate.

Today, it#s being reported they are listening to him in a way they never have before, seeing him as powerful, and threat to their own stability. It's being reported now that the EU has tried to bluster, but Cameron calling the referendum has shown the bluster has not worked.

Therefore, they are now willing to negotiate.

Absolute nonsense Graham.

Provide links please.

Advisors have been rushed in to see Milliband and we'll likely hear plans for the same referendum within a week.

Unlikely.

Labour have increased their lead in the polls since Cameron's announcement.

GeorgeHowell

ValHaller wrote: »

Hmm. Sure if she says she is willing to negotiate, then sure enough, I believe she will.

But she ain't daft. She set the ball rolling on treaty negotiations which prompted Cameron to say he was going to make a speech 6 months ago. And then a few days before the speech she said that most of the things required could be done without a treaty change.

My money is on a continuing invitation to open negotiations with the intention of getting Cameron to start putting down some demands before the next election. He can hardly refuse, but I think it will be as difficult a position to make the demands before the election as after in terms of appeasing his eurosceptics, gaining broad domestic approval and putting down some realistic demands. But it will be far worse for him to fight an election on negotiations which Merkel will take thinking time and leave the uncertainty hanging over Cameron.

It is payback time for vetoing the things required for Euro stability a year ago.

Completely wrong analysis. Merkel has obviously accepted that we're not going to join the superstate and to keep good relationships and trading with us is preferable to the opposite. She will also know that taking a hard line is just likely to force us out. Only the federalist idealogues would be stupid enough to force that just on a point of principle. Ultimately only the real issues that keep the single market level playing field together will have to be preserved. Everything else will be up for grabs, from doctors' working hours, to benefits and immigration, to the ECHR, to criminal justice policies. To preserve the Euro and move towards federalisation before it all implodes the countries that want it need us to be cooperative, not obstructive. Cameron knows all this. Let's not pretend this situation has arisen without manifold behind the scenes discussions and understandings, whatever might be said for public consumption.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Never mind, seems Graham has once again got a bit muddled......

Ms Merkel gave a guarded response in which she was careful not to reject Mr Cameron's demands out of hand. ''Germany, and I personally, want Britain to be an important part and an active member of the European Union,'' she said. ''We are prepared to talk about British wishes but we must always bear in mind that other countries have different wishes and we must find a fair compromise.''

EU diplomats and officials said Ms Merkel, who is keen to keep Britain in the EU, would drive the hardest of bargains amid acute concern that Mr Cameron had plunged the EU into years of uncertainty when the priority for other countries is to recover from the euro crisis.

Other EU leaders lined up to declare there would be no ''cherry-picking'', nor ''a la carte'' terms tailored to suit the British.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/merkel-leaves-door-ajar-for-cameron-eu-referendum-20130124-2d9no.html#ixzz2Iu0cawiw

So far from appearing "statesmanlike" as Graham has claimed, he's being regarded as a petulant child who has annoyed most of the EU today.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Absolute nonsense Graham.

Provide links please.

Some business leaders in Merseyside and the North West gave the speech a cautious welcome with one describing it as “statesman-like”.
http://www.liverpooldailypost.co.uk/ldpbusiness/business-local/2013/01/24/eu-uncertainty-is-risk-to-merseyside-firms-warn-business-leaders-99623-32666596/

David Cameron has been blamed for pandering to his country’s Eurosceptics. But, one could just as well say that he is a statesman who takes his people’s concerns seriously and who is even willing to let them speak their minds in a referendum – unlike in other EU countries, Denmark included, where the EU elite fears a vote that would clear the air about whether Denmark is a member of the Euro-zone.
http://cphpost.dk/commentary/opinion/opinion-cameron%E2%80%99s-speech-turning-point-eu

David Cameron is perceived more favourably in Sweden. "He is a well-respected statesman here," says Anders Lager, senior editor with MSN Sweden. "He reminds some people of our own prime minister Fredrik Reinflet. We'll be following his speech with great interest."
http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/what-europe-thinks-of-david-cameron-017009/

Feel free to do a google search yourself.

Unlikely.

Labour have increased their lead in the polls since Cameron's announcement.

And?

Who is going to be filling in polls at the moment? Have a think about it.

And in any case, even if it is the disgruntled manically filling in polls, there hasn't been a time in history where mid term polls have actually stated the outcome of a general election. I'm sure you are on record somewhere stating this yourself.

Polls, as described I think by Tony Blair, are like complaints. People always spend more time on a complaint they they do even thinking about spending time noting their satisfaction.

pqrdef

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Cameron has become a Statesman overnight according to some in the EU. They are now willing to listen. They are now, crucially, as per Angela Merkel, willing to negotiate.

They've got a golden opportunity to wrong-foot Cameron by offering some minor concessions. If they're clever, they'll paint Cameron into a corner and then, nearer the election, they'll concoct a pact with Labour that Cameron can't accept.

But there's nothing they can now offer Cameron to stop the referendum.

And there's nothing they can now offer that will induce any Eurosceptic MP to do a total U-turn and campaign for a Yes vote. The sort of deal that might have got some Tories to pipe down a bit is no longer a useful option.

They won't negotiate seriously with Cameron because there's now nothing he can actually deliver. There's no realistic scenario in which he can even deliver his own party.