The Polls - Labour Lead At 14 - Is It The Economy?

GeorgeHowell

BobQ wrote: »

I agree with the bit in bold at the local level. Many people vote tactically or in protest in the constituency where they feel there is a chance of influencing the constituency outcome.. What is less clear is the extent that a party can translate this into a national outcome.

UKIP support could fall as you say, particularly if a month out it looks like UKIP support will "let labour in". However, if these disaffected voters feel let down by Cameron's performance they may feel content to make a strong anti-EU protest, particularly if Cameron fails to deliver an in/out vote.

A lot of the UKIP protest will melt away for fear of letting Labour in. Cameron will almost certainly offer EU renegotation followed by a referendum offering out as an option. This will allow some UKIP protesters to save face in their own mind by convincing themselves that's enough. There will still be a few idiots who will vote UKIP in order to punish the Cameroons. But whether that will be enough to make any difference is anybody's guess. It's difficult to see the next election not being another pretty close one because opinions are polarised between left-ish and right-ish on a fairly even basis.

BertieUK

It will be more nearer the time of the Election whereby one of the parties will come up with an idea that could swing in their favour , at the moment it is rather pivotal neither going one way or the other.

I do hope that voters will vote with their heads and not their hearts after the experiences that we have had to contend with.

GeorgeHowell

BertieUK wrote: »

I do hope that voters will vote with their heads and not their hearts after the experiences that we have had to contend with.

That's the key to it. But I have no doubt that many electors vote tribally and nothing that happens would change their minds, and that applies to all sides.

BertieUK

GeorgeHowell wrote: »

That's the key to it. But I have no doubt that many electors vote tribally and nothing that happens would change their minds, and that applies to all sides.

I think that this was always tribal in the past, son would follow father etc; but when it hits home as hard as it has, hitting the ones that do not deserve it, we have to be realistic in our choice of whom we give our vote and try and educate more people into the importance of getting off their bottoms and voting, as we do not want a repeat of the last election result ever again.

Do you think that politicians are talking over the heads of the electorate and not able to communicate at their level anymore?

DecentLivingWage

Yes! Both sides probably, but I do feel that the worst mistake the Cons/Cameron ever made was to insult the intelligence of the voters (not learning either, still pretending Plan A will work when now almost whole world says it won't - voters are canny & better educated than ever before - they can see through it - hence polls )

GeorgeHowell

BertieUK wrote: »

Do you think that politicians are talking over the heads of the electorate and not able to communicate at their level anymore?

In a word, yes.

They think they are coming over well, but it often sounds patronising and intelligence-insulting. The new political class typically have done nothing else in life, and they live in a bubble of political intrigue and spin. They are in effect officials who get elected rather than appointed.

Generali

BertieUK wrote: »

Do you think that politicians are talking over the heads of the electorate and not able to communicate at their level anymore?

I think that's the real strength that Boris Johnson has: he doesn't come across as a a politician who believes that if you can fake sincerity you have it made. He sounds like he believes what he says and he has a sense of humour.

If I was a British voter, my concern would be that I don't really know what Boris stands for because he's generally very hard to pin down to specific policies although he is very good at giving an ideological direction (free markets, free people: neo-Thatcherism without the social conservatism).

I can't think of another English politician that really speaks to people in that way. Perhaps Salmond does to Scots? I don't know whether he does but I'd be interested to hear opinions.

Ken Livingstone is a surprisingly good speaker: that adenoidal thing makes him sound bad on TV but in person he's quite rousing. I bet Blair was a great speaker although I never saw him, Heseltine is supposedly amazing too. Those three are really the past generation though.

Conrad

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

Yes! Both sides probably, but I do feel that the worst mistake the Cons/Cameron ever made was to insult the intelligence of the voters (not learning either, still pretending Plan A will work when now almost whole world says it won't - voters are canny & better educated than ever before - they can see through it - hence polls )

For me weak leadership would be showering the electorate with borrowed money. Like children voting for sweeties.

Strong leadership is sometimes about setting the tough course and seeing it through.

Conrad

A lesson from history; Reagan trailed in his first mid term, there was even a song called Reaganomics that typified how people felt, however he went on to win even though unemployment was still high because the trend of falling unemployment made the electorate feel things were back on course.

GeorgeHowell

Conrad wrote: »

For me weak leadership would be showering the electorate with borrowed money. Like children voting for sweeties.

Strong leadership is sometimes about setting the tough course and seeing it through.

True, but the trouble is that large swathes of the electorate want those sweeties and can be politically seduced by those who offer them. I don't think that the electorate are more canny, they just think they are. Because they know more and/or can find out more they think they make more informed choices. In fact they are just as liable to make emotive, tribal choices, and to be influenced by spin and subliminal suggestion as previous electorates have been.