The Polls - Labour Lead At 14 - Is It The Economy?

Generali

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

Update 5th Jan Ukip alert!

Ukip polling up o 16% tomorrow's papers (survation)

About 95% of those UKIP 'voters' polled will end up voting Conservative at the next General Election or abstaining.

Exactly the same thing used to happen during the 1980s and with the Liberals/SDP/Alliance support. When it comes to polling day, people want to vote for someone who has a chance of winning. A vote for UKIP is a wasted vote, everyone knows it.

DecentLivingWage

There have been news pieces interviewing Ukip members who are adamant they won't be scared off and go running back into the arms of Cameron/Osborne - They have said No Deal!

'UKIP surge set to cost Tories 51 seats – and give Miliband victory: Stunning blow for Cameron as poll says he'll lost dozens of MPs in Labour landslide
Support for UKIP has soared from 3 per cent in 2010 to 16 per cent'


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2257797/UKIP-surge-set-cost-Tories-51-seats--Miliband-victory-Stunning-blow-Cameron-poll-says-hell-lost-dozens-MPs-Labour-landslide.html#ixzz2HBHGxxMk

DecentLivingWage

PS Bet 365 now offering 11/8 Labour overall majority

Generali

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

There have been news pieces interviewing Ukip members who are adamant they won't be scared off and go running back into the arms of Cameron/Osborne - They have said No Deal!

'UKIP surge set to cost Tories 51 seats – and give Miliband victory: Stunning blow for Cameron as poll says he'll lost dozens of MPs in Labour landslide
Support for UKIP has soared from 3 per cent in 2010 to 16 per cent'


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2257797/UKIP-surge-set-cost-Tories-51-seats--Miliband-victory-Stunning-blow-Cameron-poll-says-hell-lost-dozens-MPs-Labour-landslide.html#ixzz2HBHGxxMk

I think you're confusing the words 'members' and 'voters'. The number of the former are insignificant compared to the number of the latter.

Clearly Labour are favourite a to win the next election, Betfair has Lab 2.1, NOC at 2.8 and Con at 4.1 which is a pretty fair reflection of things. That isn't Lab as a dead cert, they're still odds against winning as is the 11-8 you quote.

If you think that an opinion poll today is going to be an accurate reflection of what will happen in almost 30 months time your even more of a mug than your one eyed posts make you appear.

DecentLivingWage

Punters are a pretty canny bunch.... when it's cash on the line I know whose advice I would take on a 2015 bet!

homelessskilledworker

Generali wrote: »

About 95% of those UKIP 'voters' polled will end up voting Conservative at the next General Election or abstaining.

Exactly the same thing used to happen during the 1980s and with the Liberals/SDP/Alliance support. When it comes to polling day, people want to vote for someone who has a chance of winning. A vote for UKIP is a wasted vote, everyone knows it.

Very true, and I made the point a few weeks ago that when the voter goes into that booth on polling day they will look at the now popular Ed Milliband and Ed balls a little more critically, like with what happened to Kinnock.

But today we might be in an era of coalitions, and most voters are now clued up to the fact that....

Labour or Conservative = The same thing

And so many people are just cheesed off now with the "same thing" and not being listened too.

DecentLivingWage

Hence Ukip! My point exactly! What do you think of Betting Shops as opposed to Opinion Polls for predicting the winner?

Generali

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

Hence Ukip! My point exactly! What do you think of Betting Shops as opposed to Opinion Polls for predicting the winner?

Matched betting is a good predictor, bookies are still just an individual opinion (more or less).

Both have Lab as an odds against chance.

DecentLivingWage

Does anyone know of any published figures for prediction comparisons for political betting ref elections? It would be interesting to compare past predictions (polls/betting odds) against real results?

michaels

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

There have been news pieces interviewing Ukip members who are adamant they won't be scared off and go running back into the arms of Cameron/Osborne - They have said No Deal!

'UKIP surge set to cost Tories 51 seats – and give Miliband victory: Stunning blow for Cameron as poll says he'll lost dozens of MPs in Labour landslide
Support for UKIP has soared from 3 per cent in 2010 to 16 per cent'


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2257797/UKIP-surge-set-cost-Tories-51-seats--Miliband-victory-Stunning-blow-Cameron-poll-says-hell-lost-dozens-MPs-Labour-landslide.html#ixzz2HBHGxxMk

If UKIPs priorities were my own then I would definitely tell the Tories there is no way I would vote for them - that is most likely to make their manifesto as anti-europe as possible. However when voting if my choice was to elect a tory on a manifesto of a referendum or vote ukip and potentially get a labour mp committed to European integration I know which way I would vote.