Who will it be Romney or Obama?

vivatifosi

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

Well what happens if it is a dead heat?

This is something Sky News covered yesterday. Apparently the House of Representatives gets to vote which of the two would be president. Because the HoR is Republican, Romney would be president. Then the Senate would get to vote for the Vice President. Because the Senate is majority Democrat, that would go to Joe Biden. It has happened once before, something like 1840...

ETA: just noticed that I've cross posted with Hamish...

paso11

vivatifosi wrote: »

This is something Sky News covered yesterday. Apparently the House of Representatives gets to vote which of the two would be president. Because the HoR is Republican, Romney would be president. Then the Senate would get to vote for the Vice President. Because the Senate is majority Democrat, that would go to Joe Biden. It has happened once before, something like 1840...

ETA: just noticed that I've cross posted with Hamish...

The whole thing is almost irrelevant, the president doesn't decide the budget, thats up to congress and there seems to be little hope of a compromise that will actually resolve their fiscal woes...

deficit spending or unfunded tax cuts? its all going on the credit card anyway....

97trophy

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

Well what happens if it is a dead heat?

The Dem's will cheat (and win)...that's what usually happens.

Kennyboy66

Generali wrote: »

This election is going to be too close to call IMHO. Don't forget a draw is possible and isn't just a theoretical possibility: there are an even number of people voted into the electoral college which then votes for president.

its about a 300/1 shot according to Nate Silver - al
though considerably shorter 25/1 on betfair.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Almost all the recent polls had Obama ahead - and some of those had pretty large samples.

Obama will win popular vote by 2%.

jamespir

has to be Obama we and the us dont need a moron in charge ............... sorry read it wrong hes a Mormon

PaulF81

I really hope Obama gets back in. The other oik has a sniff about bush, his foreign policy in particular should concern all of us.

Daedalus

Obama will win, anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded.

vivatifosi

Daedalus wrote: »

Obama will win, anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded.

I think Obama will win too and voted such in the poll. However I never forget 2000. I was in the eastern US when America went to vote. When I went to bed I was sure that Gore was President - the exit polls and pundits told me so. When I woke up the following morning Bush had won. This one isn't as close, but with regard to delusion, I always have in the back of my mind the ability of the Republicans to do a quarterback sneak.

On this subject, I've seen it mentioned that for some Americans Romney is a bit like smoking when you're a teenager, or pretending you don't pay for Sky TV round here... Because he is a Mormon and from a different background, some are saying he is unusually a "guilty secret" type of vote. I don't know how true that is, but that's the kind of thing that will never show up in polls. We'll see soon enough though and I still want Obama to win.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

In the event of an electoral college dead heat, then congress elects the president and the senate elects the vp.

So you end up with a Romney/Biden pairing, assuming current majorities hold.

But Obama will probably win.

vivatifosi wrote: »

This is something Sky News covered yesterday. Apparently the House of Representatives gets to vote which of the two would be president. Because the HoR is Republican, Romney would be president. Then the Senate would get to vote for the Vice President. Because the Senate is majority Democrat, that would go to Joe Biden. It has happened once before, something like 1840...

ETA: just noticed that I've cross posted with Hamish...

AIUI, what you say is correct but misses one vital point: just because you say you're going to vote a particular way when you reach the electoral college, doesn't mean you have to.

You can bet that bribery and blackmail would be on the cards. DAK what happens if a member of the Electoral College dies (by accident or on purpose) between their election and vote? A Coup d'Etat would be simple to arrange in that way:eek:

Generali

Kennyboy66 wrote: »

its about a 300/1 shot according to Nate Silver - al
though considerably shorter 25/1 on betfair.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Almost all the recent polls had Obama ahead - and some of those had pretty large samples.

Obama will win popular vote by 2%.

I agree given what I've read today: I reckon Romney will take Florida and North Carolina but Obama will take Ohio, Nevada, Virginia and Wisconsin. It could well end up that New Hampshire or Iowa will take one or other other over the line!

Squeaky bum time, as they don't say in the USA.