Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%

Graham_Devon

Blacklight wrote: »

*high five GD*

High five? These price falls taking you back to the 80's or something?!

Aberdeenangarse

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Looks to me like Halifax is a statistical blip, as the three month on three month and annual figures for the two indices have now adjusted to a position more in line with each other.

If we get a big fall from Nationwide that opens the gap again, then it isn't statistical noise and I'd expect falls to continue until....

1. People pull their houses off the market, just like last time, supply falls off a cliff and prices rebound.

2. The BoE panics and pulls the trigger on QE2, mortgage availability increases and prices rebound.

3. The government panics and pulls the trigger on additional direct assistance for the housing market as any serious, and more importantly sustained, drops would trigger a double dip recession in the wider economy and threaten the banks stability. And then of course, prices would rebound.

Any way you look at it, sudden and steep falls will prove counterproductive for bears in the long term. So I rather think this will prove to be another false dawn for them.

You seem to have forgotten we now have a [STRIKE]Coalition[/STRIKE] Tory Government.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Looks very much to me, like YOY (Jan - Jan) will be negative if the current trned continues.

your nearly there, you would have to look at the October, November and December releases for last year to tell you if it could end up negative.

that would tell you more about the rises last year than the falls now. the same would apply to the release in 12 months time...

des_cartes

FTBFun wrote: »

Unfortunately I think you've made it too simplistic, as you have ignored the fact that more and more people now live alone, which would obviously lead to increased demand. As we have a limited amount of land supply cannot keep up with this, and when combined with the UK's increasing population, IMO demand will always outpace supply.

I agree that restrictions to mortgage lending, interest rate rises etc as you outlined would have some impact, but I doubt it would be as dramatic as you indicate.

The factors you mention are irrelevant in the context of how much people can pay. It's not the same as supply and demand for something you find on the supermarket shelf where you just stump up the extra to buy something you need even though it's expensive. With houses, the majority of people need to borrow a substantial amount. If that substantial amount will only buy a house priced at X then buying it at Y is not possible no matter how much demand exists.

chucky

thank the lord for no more child benefit threads!!

Graham_Devon

Heyman wrote: »

Again I still think there's too many factors - like for example no-one knows when rates will start going back up yet, the predictions from economists are all over the place. And no-one knows that pace at which they will rise.

You are talking about the here and now with the banks, but interest rate rises may be years away (e.g. the Japan comparison).

When they do eventually start rising and get back up to 'normal' levels, I still think you'll see the banks adopt the more traditional mortgage rate pricing rather than the situation now where they are maximising their margins for the reasons you state.

You can't compare us to Japan!! Hamish has told us over and over, we are nothing like Japan

Do get what you are saying in all seriousness. However, I can't see the banks personally holding back on increasing rates, whenever that may happen.

Really2

Heyman wrote: »

like for example no-one knows when rates will start going back up yet, the predictions from economists are all over the place. And no-one knows that pace at which they will rise.

The fact is it is very unlikely they will go up much at all until the economy is improving and house prices are going up/real term stagnant.

Talking about IR rates going up but believing house price will continue to fall is a wishful combination and does not fit in to economic stability.
House prices generally are a sign of economic stability.

Aberdeenangarse

THE_GHOULISH_CONSIPRACIES wrote: »

Mods please lock down this thread. There are numerous threads on todays destabilised prices.

Corrected it for you!

Batchy

Too many of you guys will be thinking this will be sorting itself out over the next 6 months - 12 months.

The fact is, this is it for the next 5-10 years... there will be no madness, there will be no frivolous spending, there will be no huge jumps in interest rates, else there will be capitulation in the markets and strikes everywhere and mutiny in the ranks.

There will be higher taxes, job losses but with lower interest rates the private sector will invest and prosper in the long term, Conservatives want to reduce the payroll costs for the UK Plc and get rid of gold plated public sector roles, and the only way they can do that without full blown recession is to keep very low interest rates and convince the private market that these are going to be around for the long term, and convince the banks of the same. So they reduce their lending margins and make it possible for businesses to borrow, and grow their business.

Blacklight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

High five? These price falls taking you back to the 80's or something?!

These price falls Graham?