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Debate House Prices
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Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%
Comments
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no idea, but the Halifax spreadsheet has tabs for both non and seasonally adjusted national prices.
My view would be when comparing annual increase or decrease, it would be best to use the non seasonal adjusted price in both cases.
Sorry, my post was more of a rhetorical question in response to people speculating on the seasonal adjustment of the annual figures. Annual percentage rise or falls cannot, by definition, be seasonally adjusted!0 -
non-seasonal adjusted tells you a bit more... there is a difference in them but that's because of the size in the fall.no idea, but the Halifax spreadsheet has tabs for both non and seasonally adjusted national prices.
My view would be when comparing annual increase or decrease, it would be best to use the non seasonal adjusted price in both cases.
seasonal adjusted is -3.6% and non-seasonal adjusted is -3.1%0 -
So Hamish, how have you benefitted from today?
I live in Aberdeen.Average prices have fallen over 6 grand.
Not in Aberdeen.feeling the pain there sat with multiple home ownership?
Nope. Aberdeen prices already crossed previous peak this year.
And I'm around £50,000 ahead on my latest purchase versus not buying and renting for the same time frame. And that amount is increasing every month.
So if we have another crash like the last one, I'll be 100K ahead by the end of it.
It's why I don't get worked up about it any more....
Time is the enemy of crashaholics.
A short sharp crash would have meant it might have paid off for them... But a long drawn out affair means it's virtually impossible for them to benefit.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
The annual isnt done by taking Sept 2009 and Sept 2010. Its done by first calculating the 3month on 3 month average over the course of the 12 months, and then this is used to calculate the annual change. Another way of fudging the figures - I believe they started doing this around 2007The figures are in real terms, so perhaps they have taken it on nominal for sept-sept. So nominally they are up but in real terms they have fallen?
Might be wrong but only thing I could think of.0 -
This schart is looking more and more like becoming what will happen to the UKs house prices.
The US and Ireland are a few years ahead of us, and is playing out just like the chart.Blacklight wrote: »
3.6% fall last month. Looks like we are now just after the bull trap. Next few months/years will reveal all.
The start and up to where we are just after the bull trap are very similar to this scary chart.0 -
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This would be down to the seasonal adjustment they put on the figures earlier this year - come the end of the year, the seasonal adjustment over the last 12 months needs to balance and im guessing they've done some serious massaging of the figures earlier in the year to keep them positive.non-seasonal adjusted tells you a bit more... there is a difference in them but that's because of the size in the fall.
seasonal adjusted is -3.6% and non-seasonal adjusted is -3.1%0 -
no Hamish it's not a statistical blip. its the results of one months Halifax figures that you can't get away from.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Looks to me like Halifax is a statistical blip
one thing they are is that they are distorted geographically.
the North has house price falls while the South East doesn't.
16 of the top 20 towns reporting the biggest increase in sales are in London and the South East. Most of these are towns with good commuter links to central London.
http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halifax/2010/300910Sales_Hotspots.pdfThe market has, in general, been slower in the north and nine of the ten towns recording the smallest rises in sales are outside London and the South East.
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angrypirate wrote: »The annual isnt done by taking Sept 2009 and Sept 2010. Its done by first calculating the 3month on 3 month average over the course of the 12 months, and then this is used to calculate the annual change. Another way of fudging the figures - I believe they started doing this around 2007
Or of helping to eliminate rogue months. In either direction.
As for the drop..... need another couple of these to reach my -5% prediction for Nov 2010.0 -
Rogue months?? As of the end of September, house prices are lower than they were 12 months ago.JonnyBravo wrote: »Or of helping to eliminate rogue months. In either direction.
As for the drop..... need another couple of these to reach my -5% prediction for Nov 2010.
Ok, so house prices may not go down as much, or may even increase in October, showing that Sept was a little bit of an anomoly, but the fact remains that right now according to Halifax, house prices are lower than they were 12 months ago.
Why do Halifax try to skew this and hide it?0
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