Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%

ILW

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Its a fantastic house in an excellent area though, so I'm not (too) worried.:eek:

Just wait for the phone call regarding revising their offer.

des_cartes

FTBFun wrote: »

Its anyone's guess really, i'm just saying what I think is the case over time. Perhaps you can justify your "40% down" figure, which appears to have been plucked out of thin air?

30-40% falls in house prices returns them to long term values consistent with income levels. No thin air involved. The reason this will happen is because the factors that drove average prices to 7 times average incomes will no longer be avaiable. A house, as with any other commodity will only sell for a price that someone can pay. It's as simple as that really.

Batchy

Orpheo wrote: »

Not a problem. Already there and then some.

Im genuinely pleased for you.

I bagged my bargain few months ago, which preceeded the falls, ie, my house is contributing to the falling figures. Got it at a rock bottom price. I hope you guys can all do the same too.

Exocet

As a seasoned BTL investor I suggest you all calm down. I've just done a quick calculation on yields and affordability versus rising population stats and can confirm that this news will increase the net worth of my portfolio going forward. When you look at the larger picture, unlike the frothers on here, you will see that using your house equity as a geared investment in rental property can only ever result in maximum profit and an early retirement.

I will sleep easy tonight, assured that property in the long term only ever goes in one direction.

Yours,

Exo. c/o Aberdeen Nursing Home for the Criminally Insane.

torontoboy45

the good ol' daily liar - late again. and why does it declare crisis when v.quickly h.archer advises caution?

crisis? what crisis?

my daughter is still turning cartwheels at this, even after I told her to use some perspective.

plenty more drops to come, I'm sure, but - as des cartes point out elsewhere - massive MOM falls will shaft the economy. so let's be careful what we wish for.

hamish's impending difficulty will be my FTB daughter's opportunity.

Really2

ILW wrote: »

True, but I believe technology and materials have mad actual construction cheaper in many cases. The bit I do not understand is that on some new build estates you will find 2 bed houses selling at only around 50% more than 2 bed flats in blocks of around 12. This should mean only a fraction of the land cost and around half the construction cost. baffles me.

Problems are, Land, Labour, Building regs. Some of the stuff has got cheaper due to tech but a lot of other things are now needed to be done and other costs have increased greatly.

I think on flats, but I may be wrong they have to have a set amount of "green space" & parking around them.
So the land difference between 12X 2 bed houses & 12x 2 bed flats may not actually be that different.

Graham_Devon

Anyone got onto the hotline to their several estate agents that they don't actually have yet to gather the thoughts from the shop floor?

white_noise

its a big fall, BUT...
- it is only based on a small number of transations
- its only one month
- there is no trend (yet?)
- there are big variations between halifax, nationwide and LR house prices
i believe that house prices are going to fall but not by more than 25%, falls will not continue at this level, though a lot rides on what the tends of the next few month does.
I think that people need a bit of perseptive and not jump the gun
WN

Really2

white_noise wrote: »

its a big fall, BUT...
- it is only based on a small number of transations
- its only one month
- there is no trend (yet?)
- there are big variations between halifax, nationwide and LR house prices

No thats when it rises, keep up.:D

FTBFun

des_cartes wrote: »

30-40% falls in house prices returns them to long term values consistent with income levels. No thin air involved. The reason this will happen is because the factors that drove average prices to 7 times average incomes will no longer be avaiable. A house, as with any other commodity will only sell for a price that someone can pay. It's as simple as that really.

Unfortunately I think you've made it too simplistic, as you have ignored the fact that more and more people now live alone, which would obviously lead to increased demand. As we have a limited amount of land supply cannot keep up with this, and when combined with the UK's increasing population, IMO demand will always outpace supply.

I agree that restrictions to mortgage lending, interest rate rises etc as you outlined would have some impact, but I doubt it would be as dramatic as you indicate.