Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%

amcluesent

Mail calls it a 'crisis' as prices 'plummet' - crisis for homeowners as biggest ever fall is recorded

blueboy43

ILW wrote: »

Constant increases in prices is not necessary for a thriving market.
Many sectors expand with constantly falling prices (As in electronics).

:rotfl:

I saw someones signature and it mentioned comparisons to an Ipod and one of the biggest decisions people ever make - I really didn't thing that people would try and make comparisons.

Everyone knows that a computer / Ipod / TV will be either cheaper or more functional in 6 months time, but it hardly matters as the price is so cheap (say between a days earnings and a weeks earnings)

Behaviour is somewhat different when the price is measured in years of earnings.

Use the search facility for Dopestar and his deflation posts.

neas

Must admit, if falls would continue at this rate.. and interest rates rose.. i could see house prices tumble.... for a very small market ( repos and forced sales).... whereas the rest of the market (upsizing and downsizing... and releasing equity.. the majority of the reason for house sales)..... because people wouldn't sell for nothing... that and they would be in negative equity.

Im glad I got my house at its 2004 level..and I had 33% deposit (note the 'had' ) and mortgage is based solely off my salary as it is now .... and its fixed for 5 years at 4%..... and my mortgage is just £50 more than paying to rent (including repayment).


If i had bought my house at 2007 level ,with 5% deposit, and got a 6% fix or a 3-4% tracker.. i'd be very very worried at this data.

Heyman_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

On a more serious level....

If we are getting falls registered like this...whether they are a trend or not...with base rates this low (and I know mortgage rates are higher, but the liklihood is if IR's rise, so will mortgage rates)...

Seriously, how on earth can the housing market survive going forward?

I think there are far too many factors and what-ifs involved to set out a case for a housing market capitulation when base rates eventually start rising again.

Having said that, I don't think the banks will do like-for-like rises on their rates with the base rate. They certainly didn't on the way down, and I don't think it will happen on the way back up, realistically. It's simply not in banks' interest for there to be a housing market crash.

sarkin1

Hamish if you contact admin they will email you an new password

Really2

ILW wrote: »

Constant increases in prices is not necessary for a thriving market.
Many sectors expand with constantly falling prices (As in electronics).

It would only work if house got cheaper to make due to technological advancement, and economies of scale.
Then how do you factor land in?
Also people want an ipod, housing is partly driven by need.

Two totally different markets that should never be used as a comparison IMHO.

ruggedtoast

Its fairly inevitable this would happen. I had an offer accepted over the weekend.

I imagine that at the exact moment I did this some previously calm office worker in the Halifax suddenly became surrounded by flashing red lights, sirens and plunging graphs.

I'd just like to apologise to homeowners across the UK for this.

Its a fantastic house in an excellent area though, so I'm not (too) worried.:eek:

doire_2

sarkin1 wrote: »

Hamish if you contact admin they will email you an new password

He is logged in but i guess he is trying his hardest to come up with a spin for this massive fall

ILW

Really2 wrote: »

It would only work if house got cheaper to make due to technological advancement, and economies of scale.
Then how do you factor land in?
Also people want an ipod, housing is partly driven by need.

Two totally different markets that should never be used as a comparison IMHO.

True, but I believe technology and materials have mad actual construction cheaper in many cases. The bit I do not understand is that on some new build estates you will find 2 bed houses selling at only around 50% more than 2 bed flats in blocks of around 12. This should mean only a fraction of the land cost and around half the construction cost. baffles me.

Graham_Devon

Heyman wrote: »

I think there are far too many factors and what-ifs involved to set out a case for a housing market capitulation when base rates eventually start rising again.

Having said that, I don't think the banks will do like-for-like rises on their rates with the base rate. They certainly didn't on the way down, and I don't think it will happen on the way back up, realistically. It's simply not in banks' interest for there to be a housing market crash.

They didn't on the way down, but since then, things have changed. They now need to raise capital, and have capital reserves.

I can't see them missing out on an opportunity to up rates and blame the BOE considering they position they are in at the moment.