Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%

wherediditallgothen

doire wrote: »

He is logged in but i guess he is trying his hardest to come up with a spin for this massive fall

I bet Hamish's post will be worth waiting for

Graham_Devon

And the much needed graph...

benb76

blueboy43 wrote: »

Pretty sure what they quote are the non-seasonal adjusted figures -Allmon(NSA) on the spreadsheet.

How is it possible to seasonally adjust annual figures?

Blacklight

The news is both main indices now seem to show some consistency.



Both still show prices are higher than they were a year ago and there's a long way to go to get back to the month on month negatives of 2008.

[edit]

I would say something about great minds, but I'm not sure I want to. *high five GD*

Silverbull

blueboy43 wrote: »

If all they are doing is REPOSSESSING, then will that help prices go up or go down ?

Just wondering.

Ha very good.

Interesting whats happening in the USA, they are holding off repossession and let people stay in their homes to try and stall the house price plunge.

Wonder if UK will resort to such extreme measures?

Jonbvn

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Its fairly inevitable this would happen. I had an offer accepted over the weekend.

I imagine that at the exact moment I did this some previously calm office worker in the Halifax suddenly became surrounded by flashing red lights, sirens and plunging graphs.

I'd just like to apologise to homeowners across the UK for this.

Its a fantastic house in an excellent area though, so I'm not (too) worried.:eek:

Fair play for you honesty.

Personally, I'm ambivalent on one month's figures. Using the share analogy, I may just consider topping up, if the dip is protracted.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The three-month on three-month comparison, seen as a smoother measure of prices showed a 0.9% drop in September.

Prices remained 2.6% higher than a year ago, the figures show, although this was down from a 4.6% rise reported in August.

It also brings it close to the 3.1% annual change reported recently in the house price index from the Nationwide Building Society.

Looks to me like Halifax is a statistical blip, as the three month on three month and annual figures for the two indices have now adjusted to a position more in line with each other.

If we get a big fall from Nationwide that opens the gap again, then it isn't statistical noise and I'd expect falls to continue until....

1. People pull their houses off the market, just like last time, supply falls off a cliff and prices rebound.

2. The BoE panics and pulls the trigger on QE2, mortgage availability increases and prices rebound.

3. The government panics and pulls the trigger on additional direct assistance for the housing market as any serious, and more importantly sustained, drops would trigger a double dip recession in the wider economy and threaten the banks stability. And then of course, prices would rebound.

Any way you look at it, sudden and steep falls will prove counterproductive for bears in the long term. So I rather think this will prove to be another false dawn for them.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

And the much needed graph...

Could you explain to me when prices were at the same level as today on the graph please.

Heyman_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

They didn't on the way down, but since then, things have changed. They now need to raise capital, and have capital reserves.

I can't see them missing out on an opportunity to up rates and blame the BOE considering they position they are in at the moment.

Again I still think there's too many factors - like for example no-one knows when rates will start going back up yet, the predictions from economists are all over the place. And no-one knows that pace at which they will rise.

You are talking about the here and now with the banks, but interest rate rises may be years away (e.g. the Japan comparison).

When they do eventually start rising and get back up to 'normal' levels, I still think you'll see the banks adopt the more traditional mortgage rate pricing rather than the situation now where they are maximising their margins for the reasons you state.

Jonbvn

carol,

You really are riding a rollercoaster of emotions this week!