House prices to fall - rising supply levels and falling demand point 1 way only

Emy1501

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I don't recall where Hamish, posts deliberately incorrect titles, twisted to say something that is not reflected in the article.
If you have found some, please feel free to point it out as people have dome on this thread and highlight the actual statements.

Carol on the other hand has even had mods in her time requesting that she correct her subject title

Again, trying to get back on topic.

What do people here think about rightmove as a general index?
How accurate are their previous predictions?
Do people understand the difference between asking prices and actual sold prices?

It seems to be the most up to date survey in that there is no lag like the surveys which are based on approvals or sold prices and therefore the survey is current. Its prices are based as we all know on sentiment and in my experience sellers are more likely to decide the price to sell at than agents and many agents are still happy to price high to get business.

Agents should of course be in the best position to first notice any downturn in the market and it’s a shame that we don’t have a few posting on here. I suspect though that by time sellers catch wind of any downturn if there is one they will have long missed the boat. There were many on right move in 2008 who did nothing more than chase down the market.

Looking at the report, the reduction in FTB/those with nothing to sell is not a good sign neither is the fact that stock on agents books is increasing also. At the same time though selling times are falling and prices are still rising so who knows what the future holds.

For me the next couple of months will be key, will we continue to see stock rising and if we do will sellers start to cave in on prices. Will any CGT rise effect Flippers and those with 2nd homes etc. Or will sellers do what they did last year and just say they will wait for prices to rise if they can’t get want.

I suspect the budget will have an effect depending how the public take it.

IveSeenTheLight

Emy1501 wrote: »

It seems to be the most up to date survey in that there is no lag like the surveys which are based on approvals or sold prices and therefore the survey is current. Its prices are based as we all know on sentiment and in my experience sellers are more likely to decide the price to sell at than agents and many agents are still happy to price high to get business.

The thing you have to question is the accuracy.
There's no point in being current if your inaccurate.
In the last year, we have seen posts on here highlighting rightmove's asking prices were lowering, yet the actual sold prices were continuing to rise.

Any index is only good as it's accuracy

Emy1501

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The thing you have to question is the accuracy.
There's no point in being current if your inaccurate.
In the last year, we have seen posts on here highlighting rightmove's asking prices were lowering, yet the actual sold prices were continuing to rise.

Any index is only good as it's accuracy

Asking prices are not selling prices. You can question all the index's to be honest with you. There are many people who will trying a high asking price to start off with does not mean the selling prices will be any different.

Ie. when I sold in 2007 property was worth 270K. Agent suggested putting it up for 285K because the market was flying. In the end sold for the 270K it was worth. Selling price no different to what it was but asking price was.

I cant see why figures on FTB's and stock would not be accurate unless you are accusing them of making up figures.

Harry_Powell

Any index is completely pointless for people buying houses. They should just become their own index and expert in their chosen area and not worry about what is happening elsewhere in the UK. Even within Hayes, where I bought, there are wild variations just between adjacent areas.

Apart from having bragging rights on a stupid website, what else difference does it make to any of us whether an index goes up by 5% or down by 5%. Does anyone really believe that that 5% is somehow translated into the amount you buy and sell your house for? Is anyone really that naive?

Emy1501

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Any index is completely pointless for people buying houses. They should just become their own index and expert in their chosen area and not worry about what is happening elsewhere in the UK. Even within Hayes, where I bought, there are wild variations just between adjacent areas.

Apart from having bragging rights on a stupid website, what else difference does it make to any of us whether an index goes up by 5% or down by 5%. Does anyone really believe that that 5% is somehow translated into the amount you buy and sell your house for? Is anyone really that naive?

Its not the houseprice rise that the thread is going on about though. Its the talk about number of new sellers, increase in stock, lack of FTB's etc which is relevant.

IveSeenTheLight

Emy1501 wrote: »

I cant see why figures on FTB's and stock would not be accurate unless you are accusing them of making up figures.

I question using asking prices as an index, because the percentage of asking price achieved can vary dramatically and may not reflect the actual properties value

Emy1501

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I question using asking prices as an index, because the percentage of asking price achieved can vary dramatically and may not reflect the actual properties value

The issues mentioned on this thread though are not about asking prices though. More about the numbers of new properties coming to the market. Stock per agent and the lack of those FTB's and people with nothing to sell.

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

For me the next couple of months will be key, will we continue to see stock rising and if we do will sellers start to cave in on prices.

you've been saying this for a while now - do you think that you'll ever stop saying that something will happen to the housing market in 'the next couple of months'.

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

you've been saying this for a while now - do you think that you'll ever stop saying that something will happen to the housing market in 'the next couple of months'.

Have I? I remember saying at end of last year that the first few months of this year would shape where the market is likely to go and for me it has. We have only started seeing New sellers have only started to outstip new buyers since the start of the year.

We have a so called savage budget next month, a Euro which seems to be falling apart and the market has been very quiet for the last 2 months in many area's. It pretty obvious these things will have a huge effect on the economy over the next few months.

IveSeenTheLight

Emy1501 wrote: »

The issues mentioned on this thread though are not about asking prices though. More about the numbers of new properties coming to the market. Stock per agent and the lack of those FTB's and people with nothing to sell.

I certainly recall asking on this thread specifically about the rightmove index

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Again, trying to get back on topic.

What do people here think about rightmove as a general index?
How accurate are their previous predictions?
Do people understand the difference between asking prices and actual sold prices?