House prices to fall - rising supply levels and falling demand point 1 way only

carolt

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article7128818.ece

Rightmove reported its highest number of new listings for two years in the last full week before the election as the political uncertainty failed to put off sellers.

Despite this, the company said that there now appeared to be fewer people who were either looking to move home or could get a mortgage to do so.

As a result, it said it had seen a “substantial jump” in the number of unsold properties estate agents had on their books, with this rising from an average of 68 to 71 during the month.

Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said: “While sellers don’t appear to be put off, the rising levels of unsold stock indicate that buyers are not as willing or as able to act upon their pent-up moving desires.”

He added: “We forecast that prices in 2010 would end up broadly flat, with gains in the first half of the year falling away in the second half.

Harry_Powell

The headline for that piece:

"Asking prices edge higher but demand falls"

"Yorkshire and Humberside saw the biggest price gain during the month at 3.5 per cent, followed by the South East at 2.1 per cent"

"In other figures released today, mortgage lending increased by 45 per cent year on year in March, making it the ninth consecutive month of year-on-year growth, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders "

Did you actually read that piece carolt? Seems like a spectacular own goal.

carolt

I know, but I preferred mine.

Oh look - you've edited your piece again.

You seem to miss the main thrust of the article - the but demand falls" bit.

Shall I quote it again for you?:

He added: “We forecast that prices in 2010 would end up broadly flat, with gains in the first half of the year falling away in the second half.

chucky

carolt wrote: »

I know, but I preferred mine.

that's the spirit - never say die

only yesterday you were saying this

carolt wrote: »

in another way, as long as Hamish, chucky et al are still posting factually incorrect stuff, I see it as my moral duty to counteract that - it's a large part of why I post on here; a little step in the battle for truth in our biased media.

Emy1501

Will depend on how many sellers are motivated to sell. I suspect we will find out over the next few months. Seems like a few though round my way if the last few weeks are anything to go by.

carolt

chucky wrote: »

that's the spirit - never say die

only yesterday you were saying this

Well, the article (and Rightmove) clearly states that property prices are to fall in the second half of the year, reversing any gains made in the first half of the year.

What's not to like?

Not clear how my quote relates to this - you've not posted any untruths in this thread yet, chucky.

Harry_Powell

With HIPS being suspended I think we'll see a greater number of sellers 'dipping their toes in the water' in a speculative way. They don't need to sell, so they won't be giving their houses away and will only sell at the right price.

This will muddy the waters and make it more difficult to spot the houses where the owners are desperate to sell. When I bought last year, nearly everyone was desperate to sell! Once again it shows that it's better to buy on the downward part of a curve rather than the upward part of the curve, or in other words, buy in a crash, not in a recovery!!

One wonders what excuses the 'bears' will come up with when it becomes apparent even to them that the housing market is recovering? I know one of the biggest 'bears' is suddenly not buying because of school location. lol, what a joke!

carolt

Er..HIPS haven't been suspended yet, Harry. All those referred to in the article are not the 'dipping their toes in the water' brigade; they're the real deal, who have all comissioned their HIPS.

You're right, though - there will be an absolute flood of new properties for sale as soon as HIPS are removed.

Great - will mean hugely more supply without equivalent demand = lower prices.

Great!

Blacklight

At least people will stop banging on about how they can't trust the figures due to low transaction levels.

System

carolt wrote: »

Well, the article (and Rightmove) clearly states that property prices are to fall in the second half of the year, reversing any gains made in the first half of the year.

What's not to like?

Not clear how my quote relates to this - you've not posted any untruths in this thread yet, chucky.

I'm not sure what anyone would like from it, it means no price rises for the "bulls" and it means the "bears" just wasted another year of renting with stagnation as most of the sane ones predicted in the first place.

If it's even correct of course.

carolt

Transaction levels may still be low - they'll only rise if seller numbers are matched by buyers.

Which the article suggests is unlikely to happen.