Debate House Prices


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MSE News: House price rise predicted by MoneySavers

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Comments

  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
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    wageslave wrote: »
    Is Mrs Hamish very cross with you?

    :rotfl:

    She would be, had prices fallen more than the 6% in 2 years that they have. As it is, even losing money on a house turned out to be a better bet than renting in Aberdeen.:rotfl:

    And yes, I do seem to have a knack for buying houses close to peak. But given that the difference between buying at peak and not buying at peak last time equated to a return today of 300% or just 290%, it's not particularly troubling.....
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • wageslave
    wageslave Posts: 2,638 Forumite
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    I cant reply to your excellent post Carolt, I am too busy being devastated for Hamish. Where's Chucky? Maybe I can torment him instead?
    Retail is the only therapy that works
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
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    I'm afraid he is, and his form isn't good either as by his own admission he bought at the peak of the market in the 90's crash as well. So really we should be grateful he joined us, as we can be confident at which way the market is going by listening to him, then doing the exact opposite.

    But on a positive note, I can now charge you all to subscribe to the Hamish McTavish newsletter, so that next time I buy a house everyone knows to sell.

    It is after all, the only market predictor of peak with a 100% success rate so far.;)
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • wageslave
    wageslave Posts: 2,638 Forumite
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    Unfortunately wageslave, there is VI and VI , there are quite a few bulls on this board but non quite so animated as Hamish.
    Hamish, the straw man.
    I think the problem is I am like Bendix, I think it is all just pixels and then you realise it is people with very real fears and worries.
    Retail is the only therapy that works
  • wageslave
    wageslave Posts: 2,638 Forumite
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    But on a positive note, I can now charge you all to subscribe to the Hamish McTavish newsletter, so that next time I buy a house everyone knows to sell.

    It is after all, the only market predictor of peak with a 100% success rate so far.;)
    Actually Hamish, I am starting to think you are quite a nice man
    Retail is the only therapy that works
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
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    He will break even at some point, so he should be happy, however the money he lost/inflation adjusted isn't coming back.

    In fairness, I'm already ahead versus renting.

    Thanks to high rental yields in Aberdeen and a 0.5% tracker. But had it been anywhere else, I'd have taken a hit.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • julieq
    julieq Posts: 2,603 Forumite
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    mewbie wrote: »
    So Mr. McTavish. I put it to you that this cliched argument is a load of old McTosh. What happened to your fundamentals when the market dipped by 20% recently? Did we briefly have enough houses for a short while? Or was the UK not an Island (they're not building any more land) for a year or so?

    Why did it crash at all if everything points to your continuing boom?

    Because even if people wanted to buy, they couldn't, because banks were collapsing and the brakes were put firmly onto lending. There was very large scale destruction in confidence in the general public and business, and very few people were committing to purchases of anything, let alone houses.

    Prior to that happening, there was a consensus that the most likely outcome would be long term stagnation in house prices with interest rates creeping up against oil led inflation. That, incidentally, would have destroyed anyone who was borrowing to let for cashflow reasons, it was the nightmare scenario for a leveraged investor.

    I've said this before, but we're seeing two different problems superimposed here. One is the issue of an overheated housing market which was overdue a correction, but stagnation for a few years would have done that quite happily. And the other was the very sharp shock of the banking system collapsing, which very few people anticipated. The stimulus needed to remove the second problem will also have had an effect on lessening the effect of the second.

    As far as "fundamentals" go, I'd have difficulty in seeing apocalpytic problems. Interest rates are low and will stay sufficiently low until the general economy improves enough for them to be raised. We have very limited inflationary pressure within this country, there are some external pressures from imports but wage inflation is not likely. There is increasing unemployment but it's not catastrophic. There is a recovery in business, and we have a very competitive currency (as I've said, the value of houses if you value them in dollars or euros has dropped very significantly indeed). All in all it's nowhere near as bad as it might have been.

    Anyone who did buy in 2007 will have a heavier cross to bear than someone who bought at the turn of this year, but it's hardly going to be more of a burden than a lifetime's rent and will be largely mitigated by the very low mortgage rates in the short term. So I suspect the concern for Hamish's financial wellbeing is misplaced.
  • bluey890
    bluey890 Posts: 1,020 Forumite
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    julieq wrote: »
    Because even if people wanted to buy, they couldn't, because banks were collapsing and the brakes were put firmly onto lending. There was very large scale destruction in confidence in the general public and business, and very few people were committing to purchases of anything, let alone houses.

    Prior to that happening, there was a consensus that the most likely outcome would be long term stagnation in house prices with interest rates creeping up against oil led inflation. That, incidentally, would have destroyed anyone who was borrowing to let for cashflow reasons, it was the nightmare scenario for a leveraged investor.

    I've said this before, but we're seeing two different problems superimposed here. One is the issue of an overheated housing market which was overdue a correction, but stagnation for a few years would have done that quite happily. And the other was the very sharp shock of the banking system collapsing, which very few people anticipated. The stimulus needed to remove the second problem will also have had an effect on lessening the effect of the second.

    As far as "fundamentals" go, I'd have difficulty in seeing apocalpytic problems. Interest rates are low and will stay sufficiently low until the general economy improves enough for them to be raised. We have very limited inflationary pressure within this country, there are some external pressures from imports but wage inflation is not likely. There is increasing unemployment but it's not catastrophic. There is a recovery in business, and we have a very competitive currency (as I've said, the value of houses if you value them in dollars or euros has dropped very significantly indeed). All in all it's nowhere near as bad as it might have been.

    Anyone who did buy in 2007 will have a heavier cross to bear than someone who bought at the turn of this year, but it's hardly going to be more of a burden than a lifetime's rent and will be largely mitigated by the very low mortgage rates in the short term. So I suspect the concern for Hamish's financial wellbeing is misplaced.

    You always seem so confident in your posts Julie. What do you do for a living?
    Interest rate rises, a stop to quantitive easing or falling rent could all see house prices crash. Having said that I can't see this occuring as central bankers are usually more concerned with deflation than inflation.
    Favourite hobbies: Watersports. Relaxing in Coffee Shop. Investing in stocks.
    Personality type: Compassionate Male Armadillo. Sockies: None.
  • wageslave
    wageslave Posts: 2,638 Forumite
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    bluey890 wrote: »
    You always seem so confident in your posts Julie. What do you do for a living?
    I have no idea but she impresses the hell out of me. I can write three lines maximum and then my mind wanders.
    Retail is the only therapy that works
  • bluey890
    bluey890 Posts: 1,020 Forumite
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    wageslave wrote: »
    I have no idea but she impresses the hell out of me. I can write three lines maximum and then my mind wanders.

    Men get that too. Every six seconds.
    Favourite hobbies: Watersports. Relaxing in Coffee Shop. Investing in stocks.
    Personality type: Compassionate Male Armadillo. Sockies: None.
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