MSE News: House price rise predicted by MoneySavers

baby_boomer

All the poll shows is that MSErs are aware of house prices creeping up over the last six months.

mewbie_2

Cleaver wrote: »

You honestly think that the half a million users of this website are all 'sheeple'?

98% of them. Yes.

Who would I genuinely seek financial advice from on this board? Maybe Purch.

Framps

julieq wrote: »

It's laughable really that the word "sheeple" is being used by the bears condescendingly about other site users, given that all they really do is peddle a concotion of pat homilies and received wisdom without really working through any of the conclusions and seeing that in many case they're intrinsically contradictory.

Good post, julieq - liking your work.

I guess "sheeple" is a catchy soundbite for the internet age. Unfortunately "sandwich-board doom mongers" doesn't work quite so well in reverse!

shakerbaby

Framps wrote: »

Good post, julieq - liking your work.

I guess "sheeple" is a catchy soundbite for the internet age. Unfortunately "sandwich-board doom mongers" doesn't work quite so well in reverse!

For the last time, bears are NOT the real mongers of doom. That label is the preserve of bulls who wish for generations upon generations to be permanently locked out the market. :rolleyes:

mewbie_2

Framps wrote: »

Good post, julieq - liking your work.

I guess "sheeple" is a catchy soundbite for the internet age. Unfortunately "sandwich-board doom mongers" doesn't work quite so well in reverse!

Pre internet...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheeple

carolt

julieq wrote: »

Oh go on then, I'll bite...

a) No they don't. The long term trend for HPI is 2.9% compounded, we're at that point now. People have to buy houses with borowed money, based on what they can afford to repay. That's why prices eventually revert to standard levels relative to incomes - and usually overshoot on the way down. Not there yet.

b) Unemployment is not high by historical standards, and a great deal of it is falling onto those who don't have mortgages. For those who do, interest rates are sufficiently low to ensure it's not a big problem. The general economy is recovering now, so employment will gradually return. Says who? Figures that prove that a disproportionate number of non-homeowners are suffering from unemployment, please? Unemployment is forecast to rise, as you well know, being a lagging indicator. And what happens when interest rates rise, as they will?

c) What happened last time is not a guide to what happens now, and in fact is more likely to change what happens because participants are aware of what happened last time and will anticipate it. Look up game theory. Those who cannot remember the past are destined to repeat it. Look up Burke et al.

d) There was hardly any reckless lending in the UK. There was reckless lending in the US, which was what brought down the banking system (as far as it went). The housing market was sustained in 2003 at normal multiples, not by reckless lending. Self certification is not the same as lying necessarily, high multiples are not necessarily reckless or unaffordable. No, self-certification is not necessarily the same as lying, but it sure included plenty of it. There must have been some honest self-certers - as a general practice, though, it facilitated fraud. Likewise high multiples - sure there were occasions where it worked out fine - but it's hardly a sensible long-term strategy - look at Northern Rock.

e) Of course low rates have an effect because they reduce the cash outflow for BTL landlords (to take one example) or people in difficulties and hence ensure they don't need to sell. That throttles demand and pushes up prices, which oddly enough is exactly what is happening.

f) "huge" is not a quantifiable amount. Debt is being paid down net anyway. This is hyperbole, not argument. Will be interesting (frightening) to see what happens here, once interest rates start to rise.

g) interest rates rise when they can rise, which is when the rise won't cripple the general economy, which is in turn when there is a general recovery, which in turn when people can cope with them rising. Even then they won't rise rapidly. Good crystal ball you've got there. What, like the last time the Tories were in power?

h) everyone lives somewhere, there is massive demand for housing and a dwindling supply. As Hamish puts it succintly, the only way round this is to build more social housing. So why aren't rents shooting up then, if there's such a housing shortage?

i) Why would fuel price inflation be a factor restraining house prices when it has never done that in the past? That's a neo-millenarian position, not a logical conclusion. Rising fuel prices cause people to use less fuel, they don't cripple their ability to afford housing. Inflation = higher interest rates, is I think the point the previous poster was trying to make succinctly.

j) you can't have low interest rates causing a problem and then also claim high interest rates will too, make up your mind. In fact again the likely consequence of higher import prices is for people to import less, not to depress house prices.

h) interest rates on savings basically just track inflation, nothing much more than that. You increase savings by saving, not by waiting for interest. But once again, you can't have it both ways, you can't have low interest rates depressing the amount people can save and high interest rates forcing prices down.

It's laughable really that the word "sheeple" is being used by the bears condescendingly about other site users, given that all they really do is peddle a concotion of pat homilies and received wisdom without really working through any of the conclusions and seeing that in many case they're intrinsically contradictory. It's certainly a herd mentality. And more than that, they are lapping up essentially mass media stereotypes uncritically and assuming that everyone apart from them is MEWed up to the eyeballs and pursuing a vacuous and consumerist lifestyle. So just who are the sheep here?

The fact is that the underlying analysis has been proved wrong by events. Anyone with an ounce of intellectual honesty would be disposing of what they previously believed, looking at what is actually happening, and figuring it out. It's really not that hard.

Well, this last bit is certainly right!

The crash in house prices took all the bulls and most of the world's banks, economists, governments - not to say the bulls on here - by surprise.

So excuse the bears for being a little smug.

StevieJ

mewbie wrote: »

98% of them. Yes.

Who would I genuinely seek financial advice from on this board? Maybe Purch.

You might want to try HPC.co.uk they are obviously much smarter on there.

mewbie_2

StevieJ wrote: »

You might want to try HPC.co.uk they are obviously much smarter on there.

It is exactly the same, except they have a different opinion on the market. 98% morons. In amongst the idiocy there are one or two excellent and informative posters, certainly ahead of the mainstream press reporting.

This is a not a bear / bull thing Stevie - it is simply that most people do not have a clue.

I am not claiming I do either, but at least I try to understand the financial swings and roundabouts, and the story behind the press releases.

Here's a simple example of the media and VI reporting. WMD in Iraq. Go back and look at the press and the government, and the sheeple's reaction. Want to sell something to the sheeple? It's way too easy.

Why did Mao put the intelligentsia into the fields? It's OK, I'll stop now, it's boring. No one listens, no one learns - it's OK. I think we arrive with our opinions fully formed, and leave the same way.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

StevieJ wrote: »

Is it getting boring over there ?

:rotfl:

Bit of a back slapping party......

Prices will fall!!!!!!

Yes they will.

Ummmm, what do we talk about now then?

StevieJ

mewbie wrote: »

Why did Mao put the intelligentsia into the fields? It's OK, I'll stop now, it's boring. No one listens, no one learns - it's OK. I think we arrive with our opinions fully formed, and leave the same way.

I don't agree, the people who find their way to MSE tend to be people who are looking for information and advice to improve their lot, Sheeple don't bother.