MSE News: House price rise predicted by MoneySavers

Generali

mewbie wrote: »

Sheeple is the collective noun.

tbh I think you are over egging the thinking for themselves bit. And the valid, informed opinions.

Read any Huxley, or Orwell?

Sheeple is a horrible word. Used in arrogance by people that have little to be arrogant about IME (sorry old thing, big fan of your work usually).

I love those C20th distopian novels. Brilliant. The time must be right for a new clutch of that sort of thing. I can't think of a writer that could do write something like that well at present. I don't read much contemporary fiction though.

Cleaver

geoffky wrote: »

Diana Spencer..jade goody..big brother...ant and dec...wogon and the floral dance...mr blobby.. the birdy song .and more and more........i rest my case my lord...

Ahh, you've listed a few sterotypical things that stupid people in society are meant to enjoy. That's a great point and you've completely changed my opinion. Oh, wait, hang on...

Ballet..opera..The Times..chess..astronomy..classical music..Dickens..theatre....... I rest my case my Lord.

So does me listing a sterotypical list of things that supposed intellectual people indulde in mean that our society is full of geniuses?

macaque_2

MSE_Guy wrote: »

This is the discussion thread for the following MSE News Story:

"MoneySavers think the house price crash is over, according to a poll of this site's users.

Of the 9000+ readers surveyed, 71% said prices would either rise or hold still over the next year. On average, a 0.36% rise is expected ..."

Read the full story:
House price rise predicted by MoneySavers

A breakdown of who voted in the poll

A. People who understand cause and effect 1% (117 votes)
B. People who are not 'in it for the long term' 3% (248 votes)
C. Estate agents on 15 units a day 13% (1206 votes)
D. BTLs on blood pressure pills 30% (2755 votes)
E. Neqative equatists on anti depressants 24% (2257 votes)
F. Serial mewers with serious withdrawal problems 9% (879 votes)
G. People who believe in crop circles 8% (723 votes)
H. People with a reading age of 12+ 4% (406 votes)
I. People who read newspapers 3% (299 votes)
J. People who have no idea but like polls 5% (431 votes)

Cleaver

macaque wrote: »

J. People who have no idea but like polls 5% (431 votes)

Question 3:

Do you really enjoy taking part in polls and surveys but regulary find that you don't know the answer to the question asked? Please tick...

Yes
No
Don't know

bluey890

Cleaver wrote: »

Question 3:

Do you really enjoy taking part in polls and surveys but regulary find that you don't know the answer to the question asked? Please tick...

Yes
No
Don't know

What was question one and two?
Sorry, I might be a little slow today.

joguest

Whatever happens in the short term (probably fatrt falling sometime soon) house prices are doomed in the long term for numerous reasons including thte following:

a) Prices need to fall at least 20% relative to wage inflation to return to the long term trend (as they have done on five previous occassions since the war)

b) House price crashes lag unemployment for obvious reasons that distressed mortgage holders can pay their mortgages for a while from savings

c) It took 6 years to reach bottom last time and that was a smaller crash

d) This isn't just a house price crash - this is a banking collapse that was brought about by the fact they thought the 'boom' (obviously a bubble) was sustainable. Without the reckless lending prices would have crashed around 2003 in a similar manner to the last crash.

e) Lowering interest rates in the down cycle of a housing crash at the very least makes no difference to the size of the crash and may actually make it bigger - don't believe me - then look at the effect of successive cuts in interest rates during the last crash - pricecs fell to 2.9xaverage salary - the lowest point since the war.

f) Huge levels of unsecured lending that imply that the situation is worse now than the currently bleak levels of debt to income, interest rates, etc

g) Interest rates will have to rise, probably to avert inflation caused by too much QE or to try and prevent currency collapse.

h) continuing weakened demand for housing caused by higher levels of unemployment, public sector funding cuts and raised taxes going forward.

i) fuel price rises owing to supply constraints - with the knock on effect to every other industry dependent on oil, etc.

j) expensive imports because of low interest rates leading to consumer inflation.

h) dwindling cash of FTBs from their own earnings and from inheritance because of low interest rates


These are the reasons why house prices might rise at the moment

a) shortage of supply because potential vendors have taken their houses off the market because they think prices are going to bounce back

b) people think that house prices will rise because that's what they do, because we've been in a bull market for so long.


The reality is we're in the biggest financial collapse in history - this collapse was caused by a housing bubble. That bubble hasn't deflated yet. The banks were saved by the taxpayers and the retail banks are still making huge losses (NR made 700Million loss last quarter) - they're supposed to be paying us back! This is one of the worst times to buy a house in this Country - we're in a bull trap following the first phase of the collapse - this was predicted by many analysts (who have much more of an idea of what they are talking about than I do). If you have any sense then wait - I am - and I'm not a FTB with a grudge - I own my own house outright and will be looking to upgrade when the time is right.

bluey890

joguest wrote: »

Whatever happens in the short term (probably fatrt falling sometime soon) house prices are doomed in the long term for numerous reasons including thte following:

a) Prices need to fall at least 20% relative to wage inflation to return to the long term trend (as they have done on five previous occassions since the war)

b) House price crashes lag unemployment for obvious reasons that distressed mortgage holders can pay their mortgages for a while from savings

c) It took 6 years to reach bottom last time and that was a smaller crash

d) This isn't just a house price crash - this is a banking collapse that was brought about by the fact they thought the 'boom' (obviously a bubble) was sustainable. Without the reckless lending prices would have crashed around 2003 in a similar manner to the last crash.

e) Lowering interest rates in the down cycle of a housing crash at the very least makes no difference to the size of the crash and may actually make it bigger - don't believe me - then look at the effect of successive cuts in interest rates during the last crash - pricecs fell to 2.9xaverage salary - the lowest point since the war.

f) Huge levels of unsecured lending that imply that the situation is worse now than the currently bleak levels of debt to income, interest rates, etc

g) Interest rates will have to rise, probably to avert inflation caused by too much QE or to try and prevent currency collapse.

h) continuing weakened demand for housing caused by higher levels of unemployment, public sector funding cuts and raised taxes going forward.

i) fuel price rises owing to supply constraints - with the knock on effect to every other industry dependent on oil, etc.

j) expensive imports because of low interest rates leading to consumer inflation.

h) dwindling cash of FTBs from their own earnings and from inheritance because of low interest rates


These are the reasons why house prices might rise at the moment

a) shortage of supply because potential vendors have taken their houses off the market because they think prices are going to bounce back

b) people think that house prices will rise because that's what they do, because we've been in a bull market for so long.


The reality is we're in the biggest financial collapse in history - this collapse was caused by a housing bubble. That bubble hasn't deflated yet. The banks were saved by the taxpayers and the retail banks are still making huge losses (NR made 700Million loss last quarter) - they're supposed to be paying us back! This is one of the worst times to buy a house in this Country - we're in a bull trap following the first phase of the collapse - this was predicted by many analysts (who have much more of an idea of what they are talking about than I do). If you have any sense then wait - I am - and I'm not a FTB with a grudge - I own my own house outright and will be looking to upgrade when the time is right.

I disagree. But am too tired to go into details . Needless to say we disagree over what the long term trend is.
The null hypothesis of house prices equalling 3.5 times average earnings (if that is what is is) fails if you look at a long time period..

wageslave

Generali wrote: »

I love those C20th distopian novels. Brilliant. The time must be right for a new clutch of that sort of thing. I can't think of a writer that could do write something like that well at present. I don't read much contemporary fiction though.

PD James' Children of Men. Margeret Atwoods' The Handmaid's Tale and William Gibsons' Neuromancer are three of the best modern distopian novels in my opinion.

julieq

Oh go on then, I'll bite...

a) No they don't. The long term trend for HPI is 2.9% compounded, we're at that point now.

b) Unemployment is not high by historical standards, and a great deal of it is falling onto those who don't have mortgages. For those who do, interest rates are sufficiently low to ensure it's not a big problem. The general economy is recovering now, so employment will gradually return.

c) What happened last time is not a guide to what happens now, and in fact is more likely to change what happens because participants are aware of what happened last time and will anticipate it. Look up game theory.

d) There was hardly any reckless lending in the UK. There was reckless lending in the US, which was what brought down the banking system (as far as it went). The housing market was sustained in 2003 at normal multiples, not by reckless lending. Self certification is not the same as lying necessarily, high multiples are not necessarily reckless or unaffordable.

e) Of course low rates have an effect because they reduce the cash outflow for BTL landlords (to take one example) or people in difficulties and hence ensure they don't need to sell. That throttles demand and pushes up prices, which oddly enough is exactly what is happening.

f) "huge" is not a quantifiable amount. Debt is being paid down net anyway. This is hyperbole, not argument.

g) interest rates rise when they can rise, which is when the rise won't cripple the general economy, which is in turn when there is a general recovery, which in turn when people can cope with them rising. Even then they won't rise rapidly.

h) everyone lives somewhere, there is massive demand for housing and a dwindling supply. As Hamish puts it succintly, the only way round this is to build more social housing.

i) Why would fuel price inflation be a factor restraining house prices when it has never done that in the past? That's a neo-millenarian position, not a logical conclusion. Rising fuel prices cause people to use less fuel, they don't cripple their ability to afford housing.

j) you can't have low interest rates causing a problem and then also claim high interest rates will too, make up your mind. In fact again the likely consequence of higher import prices is for people to import less, not to depress house prices.

h) interest rates on savings basically just track inflation, nothing much more than that. You increase savings by saving, not by waiting for interest. But once again, you can't have it both ways, you can't have low interest rates depressing the amount people can save and high interest rates forcing prices down.

It's laughable really that the word "sheeple" is being used by the bears condescendingly about other site users, given that all they really do is peddle a concotion of pat homilies and received wisdom without really working through any of the conclusions and seeing that in many case they're intrinsically contradictory. It's certainly a herd mentality. And more than that, they are lapping up essentially mass media stereotypes uncritically and assuming that everyone apart from them is MEWed up to the eyeballs and pursuing a vacuous and consumerist lifestyle. So just who are the sheep here?

The fact is that the underlying analysis has been proved wrong by events. Anyone with an ounce of intellectual honesty would be disposing of what they previously believed, looking at what is actually happening, and figuring it out. It's really not that hard.

StevieJ

joguest wrote: »

The reality is we're in the biggest financial collapse in history - this collapse was caused by a housing bubble. That bubble hasn't deflated yet. The banks were saved by the taxpayers and the retail banks are still making huge losses (NR made 700Million loss last quarter) - they're supposed to be paying us back! This is one of the worst times to buy a house in this Country - we're in a bull trap following the first phase of the collapse - this was predicted by many analysts (who have much more of an idea of what they are talking about than I do). If you have any sense then wait - I am - and I'm not a FTB with a grudge - I own my own house outright and will be looking to upgrade when the time is right.

Is it getting boring over there ?