US ($) Currency Thread 2

inspector_monkfish

1.6560 trading

inspector_monkfish

12:15 04Nov09 POLL-EURO SEEN AT 91 PENCE IN 3 MTHS, 90P IN 6, 87P IN 12 (91P, 89P, 87P IN OCT POLL)
12:15 04Nov09 POLL-GBP SEEN AT $1.62 IN 1 MTH, $1.64 IN 6, $1.65 IN 12 ($1.60, $1.62, $1.65 IN OCT POLL)
12:15 04Nov09 POLL-Pound to hover against dollar in coming year


LONDON, Nov 4 - The pound will gradually strengthen against the dollar over the coming 12 months but is unlikely to move much as a dovish central bank and weak fundamentals weigh on the currency, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

The monthly poll of almost 70 analysts, taken this week, saw the pound <GBP=> at $1.62 in one month, slightly down from the $1.65 it was trading at earlier on Wednesday but above the $1.60 predicted last month.

Median forecasts saw cable strengthening slightly to $1.64 in six months and to $1.65 in a year. This compares to $1.62 and $1.65 forecast in October's poll.

"With the Bank of England set to announce a further increase in quantitative easing on Thursday ... it is hard to put forward the case for an intrinsically higher pound-dollar," said Kenneth Broux at Lloyds TSB.

The Bank of England has cut interest rates to an historic low of 0.5 percent and has been injecting billions of pounds directly into the money supply to try and kick-start the economy.

The central bank is expected to leave rates on hold on Thursday at the end of a two-day meeting and well into 2010 but is seen raising its quantitative easing programme spending, with economists split between an increase to 200 billion pounds or 225 billion pounds from the current 175 billion pounds. The lack of consensus on the central bank's next move has further muddied the waters for sterling.

The range of forecasts was therefore relatively wide, from $1.39 to $1.86 in a year, marginally tighter than last month's poll but all a long way from the $2.10 the pound was at just under two years ago and the 23-year low of around $1.35 hit in January.

Sterling hit a 5-month low last month against the dollar after inflation data cemented views that interest rates were staying near zero and concerns about the UK's fiscal position prompted dealers to dump the pound.

"The combination of a large fiscal deficit, dovish central bank and weak fundamentals should see sterling underperform into year-end and into 2010," said Camilla Sutton at Scotia Capital.

EURO EVEN

Against the euro, the pound <EURGBP=> was seen gaining some ground through the coming year but forecasts were little changed from last month despite the improving outlook for the 16-nation bloc's economy.

The currencies nearly reached parity at the end of last year but the pound has rebounded since and cross rates calculated by Reuters show it trading at 91 pence in three months and 87 pence in a year.

That is in line with forecasts from last month's poll and not far from the 89 pence it was at earlier on Wednesday.

"In the context of the unexpected expansion of QE, we have revised up our end-2009 EUR-GBP forecast. However, we still look for EUR-GBP to correct lower in 2010," said Mengxian Jiao at BoAML.

Britain's economy contracted in the third quarter, quashing hopes the downturn had ended and marking the longest recession on record, surprising markets that had expected a return to growth.

Data released on Monday showed British manufacturing activity grew at its fastest rate in two years in October, while figures earlier on Wednesday showed the dominant service sector saw its strongest activity since August 2007.

Sterling volatility against the dollar was seen falling over the coming month. Analysts say the divergence of forecasts in Reuters currency polls offers a leading indicator of exchange rate volatility in the following month.

inspector_monkfish

1.6500 trading this morning

DaMaNiAc82

1.663 trading

inspector_monkfish

12:29 05Nov09 Pound Jumps On Modest GBP25 Bln Asset Purchase Boost

LONDON --The pound has jumped after the Bank of England met
expectations by increasing its liquidity-boosting asset purchase scheme by GBP25 billion.

The move takes the total target for the BOE's facility to GBP200 billion.
Core interest rates remain at 0.5%, as expected.

The news pushed the pound 0.6% higher against the dollar, to trade at a
session high of $1.6619. The euro fell by a similar degree to hit a low of
GBP0.8938.

Economists had generally expected that the asset purchase scheme would be extended, although they were divided over the scale of the BOE's likely action.

Just over half of 19 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted that the facility would be lifted by GBP50 billion, while seven correctly expected an increase of GBP25 billion. Two had predicted no change.

Relief that a bigger extension hadn't materialized appeared to be behind the
boost to the currency.

It is so far unclear how this will affect sterling in the longer term.
Traders may eventually judge that the modest extension isn't enough to provide a meaningful boost to the economy, dragging the pound down. Alternatively, they may consider the fact that the scheme's extension is smaller than many had predicted suggests the BOE feels the scheme is working at helping the U.K. out of recession.

Attention now turns to the European Central Bank, which announces its own
monetary policy decision at 1245 GMT, with a press conference following at 1330 GMT.

Any divergence between the monetary policy stances of the key central banks is likely to prove an important determinant of foreign exchange movements in the coming months.

At 1216 GMT, 16 minutes after the BOE announcement, the euro was still under pressure against sterling, at GBP0.8945. The pound had edged back from its high for the day against the dollar, to $1.6588.

inspector_monkfish

1.6610 trading now

neilbond007

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

1.6610 trading now

So it seems today was a damp squib!

(that's sure to see the £ crashing)

inspector_monkfish

13:39 06Nov09 GBP/USD: Weighed Down by US Unemployment Rise to 10.2%

London, November 6.

Cable fell by half-a-cent to test the 1.6535 support point as the USD caught a knee-jerk safe-haven bid on the back of October"s US unemployment rate rise to a 26-year high 10.2%, from 9.8% in September. A more modest increase to 9.9% was forecast. 1.6535 was yesterday"s pullback low from the 13-day peak of 1.6637scaled after the BoE monetary policy announcement (1.6636 was today"s London morning high).

October"s US non-farm payroll number came in at minus 190k, compared to the minus 175k forecast. September"s NFP number was upwardly revised by 44k to minus 219k, with August"s NFP number upwardly revised by 47k to minus 154k.

neilbond007

Bad US figures mean a stronger $!. We've all seen that before.

Back up to touching 1.66.

Have a good weekend y'all!

inspector_monkfish

now i've finally hit the the top (and Wu Tang has gone quiet) is anyone else brave enough to challenge me???

http://fantasyfootball.skysports.com/