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UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

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  • gadgetmind
    gadgetmind Posts: 11,130 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    MELLA wrote: »
    The FTSE is too cheap at mo.

    Agreed, but it might be cheaper next week!

    I'm treating FTSE 100 = 5000 as my current buy signal and pick up what I want when it dips below this level.
    I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.

    Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.
  • JamesU
    JamesU Posts: 1,060 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    owains wrote: »
    Thanks for pointing this out. It makes for a very attractive option given my current indecision. Are there any similar ETFs or ITs I should consider?

    Blackrock World Mining trust is a good benchmark for IT. Link to post some time ago with charts comparing miners, BRWM, and etf XSPR:

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/34307759#Comment_34307759

    JamesU
  • sabretoothtigger
    sabretoothtigger Posts: 10,036 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Combo Breaker
    edited 7 October 2011 at 12:37AM
    gadgetmind wrote: »
    Agreed, but it might be cheaper next week!

    I'm treating FTSE 100 = 5000 as my current buy signal and pick up what I want when it dips below this level.

    5400 has been the top of the range since the start of August. Trade that well and theres money to be made

    FTSE futures now is 5321 and USA unemployment rate tomorrow to set that off.


    When it gets too obvious the rule breaks because too many people do it. I generally agree with what you say though, buy low and sell some at this higher price imo though I think this year we do eventually go higher

    Especially with this QE and maybe other similar weakening of currency.

    Seems I sold WEIR too quick, its lows were a good base. I think I will generally sell the larger stocks and shift or continue to hold the still cheaper little stocks


    EOJjM.jpg

    Is CEY all about the revolution ?
  • worldtraveller
    worldtraveller Posts: 14,013 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    edited 7 October 2011 at 6:39AM
    MELLA wrote: »
    The FTSE is too cheap at mo.

    Too cheap compared with what though? Current FTSE company earnings & future estimates? What happens, for example, if next year average FTSE company earnings fall 20-30% (very possible IMHO), possibly more, from what they are today/future estimates? It won't be cheap then. Future earnings estimates also tend to be exaggerated by analysts.

    Companies cut back on their costs considerably after the last recession, often by reducing, what were, overly high staff levels, which then helped earnings. That option is a limited one now. If we enter a global recession next year (IMHO we will - for how long, who know's?), earnings could be very different from what they are today & current estimates for the future.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
  • gadgetmind
    gadgetmind Posts: 11,130 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    if next year average FTSE company earnings fall 20-30%

    Where does that negative growth figure come from? If that just UK earning or global?
    I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.

    Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.
  • worldtraveller
    worldtraveller Posts: 14,013 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    edited 7 October 2011 at 9:04AM
    gadgetmind wrote: »
    Where does that negative growth figure come from? If that just UK earning or global?

    I'm talking about, as a very possible example, an average fall in earnings for the FTSE constituent companies, many of which are global companies of course.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
  • gadgetmind
    gadgetmind Posts: 11,130 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    I'm talking about an average fall in earnings for the FTSE constituent companies, many of which are global companies of course.

    Yes, but where does your figure come from, how is it calculated, and what level of GDP contraction in various countries is it predicated on?
    I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.

    Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.
  • worldtraveller
    worldtraveller Posts: 14,013 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    gadgetmind wrote: »
    Yes, but where does your figure come from, how is it calculated, and what level of GDP contraction in various countries is it predicated on?

    It's largely based on what I see happening in the global economy in my work, gut feeling and experience. It's an average, nothing more and that's why I say 20-30%, maybe more.
    There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
  • gadgetmind
    gadgetmind Posts: 11,130 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    gut feeling and experience. It's an average, nothing more

    Thanks, that allows me to set it into context and apply a suitable weighting.
    I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.

    Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.
  • RobStaffs
    RobStaffs Posts: 308 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 100 Posts Combo Breaker
    In the last few months they have downgraded Govts,economies and now today the about 15 banks..Do they believe their own hype?
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