UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

gadgetmind

IronWolf wrote: »

I havent checked my insurance holdings since I removed them from my portfolio tracker, couldnt stand the sight of the red numbers anymore

I have vowed to never hide the red, nor to let it affect me on a visceral level. I have succeeded at the former.

IMO insurance is biggest bargain in the stock markets at the moment after the hammering they've taken this year

Yes, and Aviva has taken the biggest kicking despite being in fairly good shape.

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/company-comment/2011/09/27/just-whats-wrong-with-aviva.aspx?source=uhpsithla0000002

Not tempted by banks though, don't like their balance sheets, far too leveraged for me to be comfortable.

I've very light on ordinaries but have bought into some bombed-out prefs such as LLPC and NWBD. Plenty of risk but lots of potential reward.

IronWolf

Yes more senior securities are probably safer, if you don't think they're going to go bust

I've been tempted by Aviva before, but too much debt for my investment strategy. I like to see profits at least double interest paid on loans. Even the good businesses can go under because of debt.

Interesting point about the ex-dividend and capital gains. Having all my investments in an ISA I should probably do the same but never really thought of it before.

gadgetmind

IronWolf wrote: »

Yes more senior securities are probably safer, if you don't think they're going to go bust

The current price of LLPC seems to have complete collapse of the banking system built into it, which seems a trifle OTT.

I've been tempted by Aviva before, but too much debt for my investment strategy.

I wonder how this is going for them?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/insurance/8272233/Aviva-plans-to-cut-debt-by-700m.html

Interesting point about the ex-dividend and capital gains. Having all my investments in an ISA I should probably do the same but never really thought of it before.

If your holdings are in an ISA, it doesn't matter whether you get the divi as gain or as divi.

We're dribbling money into S&S ISAs as fast as the limits will allow, but most of our holdings are unwrapped, and that's only going to keep getting worse. Fortunately, by state pension age, we should have been able to get 75% of it out of direct holdings in my wife's name and safely into ISAs.

gadgetmind

BTW, here is a write-up on Aviva by Fatprophets. Make of it what you will.

http://www.fatprophets.com/Member%20Area/Product%20Landing/Report%20List/Report%20Page/Article%20Page.aspx?id=5dcfe5e8-4d05-4cbb-b578-a54b288b768a&product=UK%20Equities&pt=paid&p=1

sabretoothtigger

EMED and EMG both mentioned in this thread previously and plunging at the moment.

I did think about EMG but if their earnings are 200m and the market cap is 3.2bn then they are not a massive bargain, still a nice 8% div

EMED is plunging on all these shares they issue to pay off loans. Cashflow can wreck these companies and they are taking too long to actually produce something. In this enviroment money is not free to risky ventures
Not been this low for a couple years and should be much closer to opening mine but not close enough


old posts, ftse was 4300 at the time

tonygee wrote: »

EMED certainly spiked today on news but seems to have retraced.Unfortunately us PIs are last to get news and its usually factored into price by time we do.
People just playing games at moment,longer term us little PIs can beat the big boys:beer:

kittie wrote: »

I saw emed mentioned somewhere and looked at the graph and didn`t hesitate. Lovely potential. i also saw this on mam news

'The permit application process is progressing well and now the Company turns to environmental aspects. We are pleased that studies show that the condition of the Rio Tinto Mine site will be improved significantly by implementing our polices and plans.
'Once the permitting process is formally completed, we will establish the production management teams and workforce recruitment procedures and seek shareholder and financier approvals.'


and I liked the idea of LOTS of shares for 2k as that what I had in the pot

IronWolf

gadgetmind wrote: »

The current price of LLPC seems to have complete collapse of the banking system built into it, which seems a trifle OTT.



I wonder how this is going for them?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/insurance/8272233/Aviva-plans-to-cut-debt-by-700m.html



If your holdings are in an ISA, it doesn't matter whether you get the divi as gain or as divi.

We're dribbling money into S&S ISAs as fast as the limits will allow, but most of our holdings are unwrapped, and that's only going to keep getting worse. Fortunately, by state pension age, we should have been able to get 75% of it out of direct holdings in my wife's name and safely into ISAs.

Just had another look at Aviva, their interim report shows debt £5bn lower, I wonder if they paid a chunk of it off. Appears they have £25bn in cash and equivalents too so could just pay if off in one go.

I hadn't checked the price since about May, wow it's fallen a lot lol. 9% dividend yield, market cap 50% of NAV, looks very tempting, even though I don't like their business model.

Might have a dig deeper into their financials to see if I think they'll weather a storm. Insurers are a pain in the butt in terms of their profits and cash flows never looking anything alike. Never sure whether those dividends are safe

sabretoothtigger

Whats the yield on llpc then, no threat to payment I take it

gadgetmind

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Whats the yield on llpc then, no threat to payment I take it

Coo, that's the easiest question I've been asked for a long time! The yield on LLPC, to three significant digits, is 0.00%.

It's on an EU divi block until early next year. Whether it pays then depends on whether LLoyds want to start paying divis in 2012 as they can't pay out a divi on the ords within 12 months of welshing on the prefs.

NWBD escaped this block is it has a funky cumulative element that involves them handing over more prefs if they miss a divi.

The upside is a strong capital gain and a spiffy yield. The downside is that Lloyds might get nationalised or do some Ireland-style recapitalisation. The latter would be odd is LLPC is T1 as it's irredeemable, discretionary and non-cumulative.

BTW, I have just bought more Aviva and some BHP Billiton. I am weak.

Thrugelmir

gadgetmind wrote: »

It's on an EU divi block until early next year. Whether it pays then depends on whether LLoyds want to start paying divis in 2012 as they can't pay out a divi on the ords within 12 months of welshing on the prefs.

Unlikely to pay a dividend. With a £3.2 billion pound loss for the first half of 2011. The full years results will at best show a neglible profit.

gadgetmind

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Unlikely to pay a dividend. With a £3.2 billion pound loss for the first half of 2011. The full years results will at best show a neglible profit.

They don't have many prefs issued so paying a divi on those wouldn't cost them much. Doing so would send good signals to the market and also make issuing more T1 easier.

However, the market clearly thinks a divi unlikely as they are priced well below NWBD.

Time will tell and I don't regard the opportunity loss in having the money parked in these as too onerous.