UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

JoeCrystal

worldtraveller wrote: »

Same here, but MWG.

I like MWG since it is not every day you come across that kind of company on LSE. I hold few other shares but MWG is one of my major holdings.

Personally, I am delighted since it mean cheaper prices for pension funds.

sabretoothtigger

Here is my HOC chart showing the volume of selling is not half as scary as the price fall. Silver itself is looking very negative with lowest price since FEB so I could easily be wrong. However, I think these guys make a nice profit this year, next year, etc





FRES I will say 1555 for my best guess of its low. Reasons being 200 daily average. Support - its an area of previous lows and highs. This price matches its uptrend since 2009. It was manic this year so its just a reversion to longer term trend


MWG is doing well with water business ? I bought some Hyder at 300 price, they consult on engineering in general but with background in water utilities

Cant get a more basic and total essential commodity then Water, growth in water processing is part of the whole urbanisation sequence away from agrarian society in Emerging markets

lvader

I said Silver was going to crash, did they listen? no. I wonder if SMEGolds 100% trading record is still intact. I don't think the rout is finished yet. I think $20 is entirely possible. A lot will depend on other commodities and the markets in general.

I was looking at some long term DOW charts and there is a giant head and shoulders formation going back to around 1995. I think October is a critical month, if the markets accept moves by the central banks we could have a very good recovery if not the markets could fall to 2009 low levels if not lower in some indexes (mainly the Euro zone ones).

I'm stull bullish medium term, the bigger the fall the bigger the recovery. Great investment opportunity, but careful of the falling knife especially with commodity stocks. They have a very long way to fall if we have a repeat of 2009. I'm grateful I sold a few PM stocks a couple of days ago.

Ark_Welder

blinko wrote: »

which is the shell one that yields sterling, si that the only difference between the RDSB A and RDSB B

Difference between A and B shares

DiggerUK

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

You mean Northern Rock ? I was oblivious personally, that was your cue I take it

NR took me by surprise, only because I had no interest in it, and was not following what they were up to. I suspected that the likes of Bradford and Bingley were the ugliest horse at the glue factory due to their exposure to the buy to let market; talk about, "events dear boy, events" turning out as they did.
..._

worldtraveller

lvader wrote: »

...but careful of the falling knife especially with commodity stocks. They have a very long way to fall if we have a repeat of 2009. I'm grateful I sold a few PM stocks a couple of days ago.

Totally agree! I was just looking back at the fund price when I originally started drip feeding into First State Global Resources back in July 2009. The price today is still around 35% higher, despite the recent large falls. IMHO we will see some further major falls in commodities over the next few months. The slowdown in China, that is only just starting, will accentuate this move south, as much of the large move north over the past couple of years has largely been based on unsustainable growth in that market.

sabretoothtigger

You are looking for a complete reversal but I see the Dollar or other currencies with debt as the weakest link. Im not that positive Im just saying the FTSE is valued in a currency which has fallen in value so you got two sets of losses already.
Thats why I keep looking for a share exposed to external trade done in asia, its obviously going to help them


So if we presume gold is accurate and includes all the loss of value in dollars and measure it vs stocks we get a better graph I think

This I did at this year start, added in what I thought was a trend



This is what happened recently, it did break the trend. We do have a new low in stock value already.




So the very bad situation is present, I dont know where the bottom is but we are not near the high values in my opinion.

Gold still looks bullish to me, stocks will stay level if lucky but worst of all would be cash. I see those three trends as the past and likely future also

black_taxi_2

sabre your hoc chart is impressive---even thou i dont hav a clue what it means

sabretoothtigger

I try to make it colourfull if nothing else :laugh:


The graph compares todays falls to the last two months trades. This is a liquidity thing they always mention, if too many people demand their money back all at once from HOC it drops the price but only for today

The real big holders of a share matter, they also leave giant foot prints.
Im saying it looks like no giant trades were done today

If Bill Gates sells all his shares in Microsoft, it would be very justified fall but if 100 angry 'little' ex exmployees choose 10.30am to all sell at once its just a momentary drop as they only matter for that minute


So blue line at 520 shows the high price on average and blue at 460 is the low price on average.

OBV rises when the amount of sellers account for less then previous buyers in that time period. So overall the stock is being 'held more' but sold at a cheaper price because sellers are eager to get out


July 2009 and how to look at a graph of Volume vs Price - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8CXjhpsoNY&feature=player_detailpage#t=359s



Edit: After all that, Silver is down 15% in USA so... Shares are minor to other money flows.

Ark_Welder

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

So if we presume gold is accurate and includes all the loss of value in dollars and measure it vs stocks we get a better graph I think

Comparing gold against shares is a bit like comparing apples against shoes. Except that a shoe a day does not keep the doctor away. OK, it might if you were to smack him around the head with it. That might.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

...but worst of all would be cash.

Not necessarily. Something that offers -3% real return over one year might be seen as a bit of a haven compared to something that loses 10% or 20% in two days. Have you (or anyone else for that matter) tried to compare real returns on cash that include interest earned? After all, that is part of the return, just as dividends are on shares. People might just get a surprise.