UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

lvader

Lower commodities have been draging the FTSE ever lower, the DAX has been doing the opposite it has been going higher with each wave. I'm expecting one more down wave next week (FTSE won't hit 5400) and then we should be getting close to crunch time (recovery or crash).

amictus

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The FTSE follows DOW, you could just buy one based on the other pretty much. USA still rules the world, a couple stocks can be like salmon and swim upstream but mostly everything flows together

The market looks like it should fall, just sometimes it can carry on anyway and we only realise after why it did that. Earnings might be it or something else
On Friday the fact we took a rest, didnt fall just held steady (relatively)
This could mean further gains are possible even though friday it was down so FTSE will be down monday

Right, thanks. As you said, the FTSE will open lower on Monday and I can see it continuing to drop as traders sell at a perceived high point. I'm thinking it'll continue to get dragged down as the DOW opens lower. However, I can see this reversing if something significant comes out of the Merkel Sarkozy meeting today. Does this sound about right?!

I think the effects of QE (both real and psychological) will also have a part to play. Will we see a direct result as soon as purchases start (next week I believe)? Or will any immediate boost be merely based on anticipation of the real effects over the coming months?

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I wont post a chart, its just speculation. But see the silver chart I posted above, the very last bar it didnt really go anywhere but in the context of how it fell (big moves) and the Long term uptrend - its a definite maybe !

I did see the charts you posted but didn't comment as I didn't (and still don't!) understand what they're illustrating, and the meaning of the trend lines. I did try!

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

It affects the entire market pretty much as it can alter perceptions and sentiment. All depends how far off the mark we are but in July 2009 it confirmed the bottom

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44817164/

Thanks for the link. I'll be keeping an eye on those stocks next week. My general perception is that companies have been reporting that they're still on target to meet end of year predicitions. Does this sound about right? Might this be the confidence boost needed to keep encourage the market upwards next week?

The reason I'm suddenly so keen to guess how next week will go is that I'm hoping to make a few purchases and would be rather annoyed if the FTSE dropped back down to ~5000 (or lower!) immediately after!

amictus

lvader wrote: »

Lower commodities have been draging the FTSE ever lower, the DAX has been doing the opposite it has been going higher with each wave. I'm expecting one more down wave next week (FTSE won't hit 5400) and then we should be getting close to crunch time (recovery or crash).

Would you mind explaining why the FTSE will drop back down (before reaching ~5400), and why this will be the last wave of the recent fluctuations? Sorry to be dense, but I'm going to need it spelling out! Thanks!

gadgetmind

owains wrote: »

i'm going to need it spelling out! Thanks!

t.e.a.l.e.a.v.e.s.

Ark_Welder

gadgetmind wrote: »

t.e.a.l.e.a.v.e.s.

Probably due to an inverted cup-and-handle chart pattern

lvader

For for the last couple of months the markets have followed a very clear pattern which really hasn't deveated much redardless of good or bad news. The market has often rallied on bad news and dropped on good news. Effectively we are stuck in a trading range. I think the market will continue to do this until something major is announced. The 2 major things that might come up soon are a possible fix for the Eurozone/greece issues or US QE.

Ark_Welder

lvader wrote: »

For for the last couple of months the markets have followed a very clear pattern which really hasn't deveated much redardless of good or bad news. The market has often rallied on bad news and dropped on good news. Effectively we are stuck in a trading range. I think the market will continue to do this until something major is announced. The 2 major things that might come up soon are a possible fix for the Eurozone/greece issues or US QE.

Outcome of 2012 US elections for president and Congress could be interesting.

lvader

Ark_Welder wrote: »

Outcome of 2012 US elections for president and Congress could be interesting.

It won't last that long, trading volumes tend to go up significantly in October. We will break the current trading range this month and we will either have a big recovery or a big crash (IMO)

Ark_Welder

lvader wrote: »

It won't last that long, trading volumes tend to go up significantly in October. We will break the current trading range this month and we will either have a big recovery or a big crash (IMO)

The current snarl-ups might not last that long, but the US elections are only just over a year away. The outcome of those in the medium term could be quite substantial with regards to both deficit reduction and trade disputes.

I don't think that any further US QE will be announced before then. The efects of The Twist will want to be seen and there is disagreement even within the Fed over whether the latter should have been done. The Republican primaries kick off soon and they will probably voice even more of an 'opinion' on the possibility on that!

lvader

The Fed has the power to do more QE as soon as they feel the economy warrants it, no political power can challenge it. Any dip back into negative GDP growth would almost automatically kick off another round of QE.

The US elections will have an effect but we could see either another 2008 crash or new highs before that happens. 12 months is a very long time when markets can move 10% in one day,