UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

JamesU

Sold AV. today, prefer to work on minimising downside on gains rather than the max potential upside. Suppose worth reconsidering AV. if they break through around 335, or just buy on lows. Stick or twist, stick or twist.....each cycle worth around 10% gain after costs.



JamesU

amictus

JamesU wrote: »

Blackrock World Mining trust is a good benchmark for IT. Link to post some time ago with charts comparing miners, BRWM, and etf XSPR:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/34307759#Comment_34307759

JamesU

Thanks for the link. There's a lot of information there which I'm sure will be helpful. I'll spend some time looking in to it this in more detail over the weekend. I'll probably be back with more questions!

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Is CEY all about the revolution ?

Questor's view on CEY and the Arab Spring...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/8678399/Questor-share-tip-Production-dip-creates-nugget-of-opportunity-in-Egypt.html

Also...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/8802793/Qatari-wealth-fund-plans-10bn-gold-buying-spree.html

Could CEY be next on the shopping list? It'll be interesting to see how this develops, but I don't have any spare cash to invest anything in it unfortunately.

amictus

JamesU wrote: »

Sold AV. today, prefer to work on minimising downside on gains rather than the max potential upside. Suppose worth reconsidering AV. if they break through around 335, or just buy on lows. Stick or twist, stick or twist.....each cycle worth around 10% gain after costs.

I almost ditched AV yesterday, but decided to just put a break-even stop loss on (303p) with the hope that there might be more upside next week. At the moment I don't have a clue whether the rise will continue or if the FTSE100 will drop back down to ~5,000... or lower!

sabretoothtigger

USA friday market close was a mixed one but generally it was healthy in that it didnt lose much but could gain more next week. Not quite clear why they are so optimistic all of a sudden but I think its possible for us to drift up some more.
Generally Iam holding till it makes more of a double top or failure twice to break a level then repeats the falls. In July I noticed just this at Dow 12,570.
On most graphs it shows the twin peaks or horns, thats the thing I mean. Obviously not an absolute rule




5400 has been the top generally but we also just broke the bottom of the range - entered a 'bear market' then ignored that and went up anyway so I wonder if we can go up some more now and break the top of the range without it meaning that much either

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIrVKFMbz0g

Could CEY be next on the shopping list? It'll be interesting to see how this develops, but I don't have any spare cash to invest anything in it unfortunately.

A good way to value stocks to contrast them against each other. So I might sell VGM to buy some CEY except CEY shows as a higher PE right now and I think Egypt has more risk in that they could even be in a war with Israel in a years time. Fiji credit rating was just raised though




On the other hand maybe its better to wait on either.
I thought Gold had found a bottom [at the 261% Fib level of 2008 fall] but silver is more volatile and some guys think it could be nearer to 20 still which would make HOC very cheap and I'd prefer to have that over either

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glWOb_6K5ZQ&list=LL_o5tna3UAPQwyfNM4uGH8A&index=1

Again I think silver is maybe at a base. Same as it was in January if you remember it was falling then.
My graph I drew up before this year, I just extended the trend lines for todays date also it coincides with 161% of 2008 falls

lvader

Shouldn't the forward PE for CEY be hugely lower? They have only just started large scale production. I bought in at $97, as long as we don't have extra bad news I can see that doubleing over the next 6-12 months.

sabretoothtigger

Forward PE in 2013 for both is maybe close to 1 or 5 for CEY if it repeated Half year ended 30 June 2011 with an average 1600 price. I know VGM has suffered because they are exploring and of course market has dumped them despite the higher gold price still meaning they make a profit (they cost like 1000 to extract an ounce, CEY is half that)

I think they could double Im just worried about Egypt and their delayed elections and what they regard as part of Mubaraks old concessions
CEY has made some small attempt to diversify into Africa. In theory CEY tax deal should improve with democracy

CEY just issued 5% more shares


Almost forgot, Next week is start of

EARNINGS SEASON

cepheus

To date uncannily accurate - economist and investment manager David Kauders predicts "Big-name companies failing in their hundreds. The FTSE declining for decades in a series of steep crashes, interspersed with smaller rallies."

In particular he stresses how slowly everything will happen: so slowly that it will be barely perceptible as a trend, even for those who live through the horror of their assets and livelihoods being immolated. He makes repeated comparisons with Japan, where house prices have fallen for decades. Equities in Japan have lost about 75 per cent of their value in 20 years but, as Kauders points out, at every uptick on this long, downward slog, short-sighted pundits have called a new dawn.

http://blogs.thisismoney.co.uk/2011/10/house-prices-to-halve-and-worse-for-the-ftse.html

amictus

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

USA friday market close was a mixed one but generally it was healthy in that it didnt lose much but could gain more next week. Not quite clear why they are so optimistic all of a sudden but I think its possible for us to drift up some more.
Generally Iam holding till it makes more of a double top or failure twice to break a level then repeats the falls. In July I noticed just this at Dow 12,570.
On most graphs it shows the twin peaks or horns, thats the thing I mean. Obviously not an absolute rule

5400 has been the top generally but we also just broke the bottom of the range - entered a 'bear market' then ignored that and went up anyway so I wonder if we can go up some more now and break the top of the range without it meaning that much either

Thanks for these observations. Just to clarify, you expect the FTSE100 to peak at ~5400 about, at which point you would sell with the expectation to buy back in at ~5000? I do understand you're point about this behaviour not being an "absolute rule".

Also, regarding your double top comment; you would be on the lookout for this on the Dow? I can see the July "horns" you mentioned, but not sure I could pick out anything like that on the FTSE100... recent fluctuations look pretty random to me.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIrVKFMbz0g

An interesting watch, but way beyond the level I'm at. As it's my intention to hold for a longish period, I will be happy if I just manage to time my buys at low points, so I am just attempting to predict when these might be. Unless something goes terribly wrong with the Eurozone situation in the coming weeks, I think I might have missed my commodities buying opportunity last week!


One last thing...

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Almost forgot, Next week is start of

EARNINGS SEASON

Do you expect this to have an impact on market as a whole over this time period? Or will effects be isolated to specific companies as they release news?

ses6jwg

Some decent results from Greggs and a nice rise to boot. Good port in a storm I would say.

sabretoothtigger

owains wrote: »

Thanks for these observations. Just to clarify, you expect the FTSE100 to peak at ~5400 about, at which point you would sell with the expectation to buy back in at ~5000?

The FTSE follows DOW, you could just buy one based on the other pretty much. USA still rules the world, a couple stocks can be like salmon and swim upstream but mostly everything flows together



The market looks like it should fall, just sometimes it can carry on anyway and we only realise after why it did that. Earnings might be it or something else
On Friday the fact we took a rest, didnt fall just held steady (relatively)
This could mean further gains are possible even though friday it was down so FTSE will be down monday

I wont post a chart, its just speculation. But see the silver chart I posted above, the very last bar it didnt really go anywhere but in the context of how it fell (big moves) and the Long term uptrend - its a definite maybe !

owains wrote: »

Do you expect this to have an impact on market as a whole over this time period? Or will effects be isolated to specific companies as they release news?

It affects the entire market pretty much as it can alter perceptions and sentiment. All depends how far off the mark we are but in July 2009 it confirmed the bottom

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44817164/