UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

I can tell you Obama will lose, I should have placed a bet in 2008 because nothing changed ironically.
He got to the controls as we were already in a vertical dive and I just dont see he has the skills, experience or reactions even to pull it out of the inevitable.
So I dont see more jobs and the public will probably react badly

I'm thinking it'll continue to get dragged down as the DOW opens lower

At that point it'd become circular logic. Dow doesnt have to open lower, they do notice Asia and Europe to some extent but we follow them not so much vice versa (imo)

I did see the charts you posted but didn't comment as I didn't (and still don't!) understand what they're illustrating, and the meaning of the trend lines. I did try!

Trendlines is like average difference in a number sequence. 10 12 14 16, whats next, that is basically the idea of a trend.
It can break of course, everything is on ice :eek: The numbers are regular so it is just 1 simple idea, many paths possible and that is one

gadgetmind

Ark_Welder wrote: »

Probably due to an inverted cup-and-handle chart pattern

Arf!






..................

gadgetmind

lvader wrote: »

we will either have a big recovery or a big crash (IMO)

And we either will, or won't, meet a dark handsome stranger.

The difference between science and arm waving is that the former prides itself on testable hypothesis whereas the latter always seeks to be able to say "I told you so" no matter what happens.

lvader

I wasn't saying the markets will go up or down, I'm talking about a move of 20% or more in one month!

gadgetmind

lvader wrote: »

I wasn't saying the markets will go up or down

You said they might do either, which is a rather safe prediction.

I'm talking about a move of 20% or more in one month!

Which way and with what degree of confidence?

I'm not saying you're wrong, merely trying to get (coax, goad, wrestle!) a prediction from you that can be judged at a defined future point to be somewhere between bogus and prescient.

My prediction is for at least six months of thrashing around, with loads of spiffy buying opportunities for those with a sensible cash allocation, then a few more banks needing life support, followed by five years of business as usual in the developed world and tasty growth in EM.

amictus

Thanks for answering my questions... I think I'm slowly starting to learn a few things!

lvader wrote: »

For for the last couple of months the markets have followed a very clear pattern which really hasn't deveated much redardless of good or bad news. The market has often rallied on bad news and dropped on good news. Effectively we are stuck in a trading range. I think the market will continue to do this until something major is announced. The 2 major things that might come up soon are a possible fix for the Eurozone/greece issues or US QE.

"We need to deliver a response that is sustainable and comprehensive. We have decided to provide this response by the end of the month because Europe must solve its problems by the G20 summit in Cannes."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/09/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7953D520111009

I think most people were hoping for something a little more concrete... I know I was! I think that, on it's own, this won't be enough to break the current cycle. It almost seems as though they're deliberately delaying committing to anything until November.

Anyone else have any thoughts on how things might go next week? Up or down?!

gadgetmind wrote: »

My prediction is for at least six months of thrashing around, with loads of spiffy buying opportunities for those with a sensible cash allocation, then a few more banks needing life support, followed by five years of business as usual in the developed world and tasty growth in EM.

I'm still struggling to predict how things will work out over the next few weeks... I have no idea what this will lead to longer term!

lvader

It could all hang on a few votes in the Slovakian parliment! Really a few people that noone has every heared of could send the Euro to hell and the markets with it.

sabretoothtigger

If Euro printed money they would fine just like the Dollar is fine and going up right now

You know after they announced QE that sterling has gone up. If fact my view is its breaking out of its August downtrend, apparently due to rise now :O

Gadget is saying sideways and vader is saying nope we break out of the range here which means a 20% move
Those are both reasonable predictions. Markets can be predicted roughly because they are made up of humans and human growth is a natural phenomena

followed by five years of business as usual in the developed world and tasty growth in EM.

Alot of people think this and I reckon its completely missing the point of why havent markets already resumed normal business.

We need a conclusion to the past. We dont get normal when QE, low rates and massive debt is here.
Only when government leaves the party do we get the five years of usual business in the west.
The east I think will grow whatever happens and it might even be faster if west were not present like it is now

gadgetmind

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The east I think will grow whatever happens and it might even be faster if west were not present like it is now

Without a song or a dance, most of my EM investments have drifted back up to where they were a year ago, which shows there is a strong growth signal beneath the noise of fear.

StevieJ

Well the Ftse pops through 5400, are one or two of you selling now?