UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

worldtraveller

lvader wrote: »

I bought my US stocks in pounds, there is a small hit on the exchange rate margin but other than that it's fine. The other issue is the buy and sell prices aren't normally guaranteed because it takes a bit longer to complete.

I've found it to be a major factor when using NatWest online stockbrokers. They hit with about a 2-3% premium over the going commercial rate for a buy and the same hit again for a sell. You naturally need to factor this in to your purchase. Of course, if the exchange rate changes between the buy & sell, you can either gain, or lose further. It's a factor that you therefore need to seriously take into account in any trade. The only SP that affects me personally currently, from day to day, are my trades in FXP, which are the only ones I trade in USD V GBP.

tradetime

Yes you need to watch the exchange rate you are being given. If you are using an ISA then you are kind of at the brokers mercy, I have for the most part stopped buying US shares in my ISA. If you operate outside an ISA then you should look for a broker who allows you to keep cash in the currencies of the markets you are trading, so you don't keep converting back and forth.

lvader

worldtraveller wrote: »

I've found it to be a major factor when using NatWest online stockbrokers. They hit with about a 2-3% premium over the going commercial rate for a buy and the same hit again for a sell.

I'm using iii, not sure the exact magin but it's nowhere near 2-3% each way. It's probably less than 2% in total. I take a slightly longer term view with US stocks. I've bought UK shares and sold the same day. The least amount of time I've held US shares is a few weeks.

I figure the pound is going to lose out against most currencies this year so I'm very heavy in foreign funds and shares. I have a final salary pension that gives me plenty if not too much pound exposure. I consider any currency swings as fairly nutral either way.

tradetime

To work it out ask for a buy quote for a US stock, they will quote you the exchange rate they are going to give, note it down, then you immediately ask for a sell quote and they will quote you the other side of the exchange rate and you note that down, and you are paying the spread as an added cost, can't remember what iii was. I know TD Waterhouse was quite expensive when I was with them

edit: in order to do it on iii, you will need to be holding a foreign stock to get a quote for a sell

tradetime

Update on my positions from last year exited all my SLV on reaching the $30 target, exited RGLD only made a few dollars on that, it didn't really perform as well as the metal. Exited 50% of swing longs on SPX prior to the Christmas holiday and now re-entering, still expecting 1352 on SPX.
UK wise am long Aviva, Barclays, Royal Dutch Shell, iShares FTSE100 tracker. My expectations at the moment are for the continued recovery in markets.

sabretoothtigger

Aviva Shell and Bdev were all tippped by Questor. I think Bdev is the most unlikely and so the best tip there so long as they can keep up cashflow like he says they will

I'm kinda expecting a blip down like happened last two Januarys. However Im more unsure this year, if euro could dive again it'd bring Dollar up and help the bearish case.

I have rough target of 520 for BP. 500 area has some res, 460 is support & 550p is 2009 Feb low

tradetime

I'd need BP to hit 520 just to break even Barclays was a fairly recent addition and is still slightly under water, the rest are all doing well. The UK stocks are all in an ISA, since I am not an investor and don't trade individual company stocks I keep that account predominantly in FTSE100 stocks and thus that is the benchmark, the objective simply to out perform the FTSE

A short term pullback is not out of the question, we are probably a little ahead of trend at this time point, but we see. THe Nasdaq 100 is in the precarious position of a possible double top, which gives some cause for short term concern

StevieJ

tradetime wrote: »

I'd need BP to hit 520 just to break even Barclays was a fairly recent addition and is still slightly under water, the rest are all doing well. The UK stocks are all in an ISA, since I am not an investor and don't trade individual company stocks I keep that account predominantly in FTSE100 stocks and thus that is the benchmark, the objective simply to out perform the FTSE

You should have bought them at £0.50P :money:

tradetime

StevieJ wrote: »

You should have bought them at £0.50P :money:

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Yeah, thanx for that. I wouldn't have touched an individual bank at that time I'm afraid. At this point in time I'm still not a great fan.

ChrisEvanson

tradetime wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Yeah, thanx for that. I wouldn't have touched an individual bank at that time I'm afraid. At this point in time I'm still not a great fan.

I would have done and nearly made it my first ever share purchase but dithered, not for any reason other that cold feet about shares etc in general because I hadn't done it before. Barclays were simply dragged down by all the panic about banks, but they had little sub-prime exposure and were perfectly strong to weather the storm without a government bail out, as history showed but as the stats showed too. It was a simple case of someone sneezing and everyone thinking everyone in the building had swine flu.

Barclays recovery was not difficult to forsee, unlike RBS and Lloyds who have much more work to do but the rewards will come for those I have no doubt.