UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

I never really understood RRS exactly except they do their job well I guess. Still seems they do have risk and that is apparent now hence you might be right to take a look.

Price now reflects similar to end of 2009 which Im sure was expensive then. I dont really follow them and I dont generally own popular stocks as such.
BP was my biggest hence why it was good for me to reduce, now my biggest apart from funds are the spanish stocks telfonica and santander, after that its natural gas all quite beat up in general (on price)


Here is a chart I drew up maybe a year ago, would have to look further to see where it might be best to buy. Can always go off the moving average lines but thats pretty arbitary.
(orange line, 40 is the important one here really - the chart reflects major price failure)




Geographically CLF is close to RRS I think and generally I'd rather have them though RRS might be safer as a bigger company, not sure.
Gold price could fall, so buying expanding production prospects allows for less impact from commodity price alone



Looking at the volume profile. I think the buy target is May 2009 highs. Draw a line across the chart for 46.49 and that matches a few turning points.
Could go to Feb 2010 lows also but so long as you like them, I think at this price it would be a value stock. As such it will probably never get this low unfortunately so I wont likely own them :laugh:

See highest red bar on the left:
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/5375/scr4731338.jpg

Daily Rolling charges

Its just a few pennies for every hundred shares per day. Most companies move/recalculate the price daily but wont ever charge the spread again, its not a new purchase.
The company I use now even on a rolling contract, wont move the price. Its the same difference, same gains in total but more obvious to see quickly.
On EMED the price was only 8p when I got them, I got so few at that time Im not even charged a fee at all. Can be a very nice way to own something if you dont mind paying about 1% extra to buy

Finally, Parkmead (pmg) has passed into the realms of the totally surreal. This is a bear squeeze applied to a limited float with the lemmings in flat out bite mode. Just keep selling: this is the first coup of 2011.

I will buy PMG at some point. Considered near its lows today but decided not yet, others obviously like it still
Should bump its head at 24. 10 is ideal to buy, 14 I will scale
http://sharecrazy.com/beta/Tips/4665/infa-penny-infa-pound

Finally decided I will get Gulfsands, better late then never? They have some business in Iraq like GKP but much elsewhere. Drawing up battleplan now

Thrugelmir

lvader wrote: »

Actually they probably didn't need it, it was probably a ruse to deflect from that fact they had just borrowed over 600 billion $ from the Fed.

Really? .........

Barclays argues that bringing in these strategic shareholders is preferable to joining the government's support package, as that would expose it to state controls over its business as well as restricting its ability to pay dividends and bonuses to its investment banking staff.

lvader

I'm not sure what you are questioning, the fed loans become public knowledge last year.

tradetime

cloud_dog wrote: »

Any thoughts, any TA comments on RRS anyone????

I can't say anything jumps out on a chart of RRS, for me personally.
Monthly, and weekly shows a stock in an uptrend as far back as I have data for. The last significant correction in mid 2010 was about 20% from 6600 - 5355 Most recently a failed breakout attempt in October on the weeklies, which could be interpreted as a double top has led to a sharp move down.



The stock broke below the 200 sma and a near term likely support level in the mid £57 area, and then the swing low between the double top which would give a potential price target on the downside in the mid £41 area over the next few months.



Currently what can be said is that the stock has established a short term downtrend within a larger degree bull market, this may setup a possible bull flag on the weekly. Price action appears to be corrective in nature. A bounce from here to the high £53 low £54 area would not be unexpected, even likely, and a breach of that area would target the downtrend line currently in the mid £57 area and the 50 day sma. This bounce would also establish the parallel downward channel that has been provisionally drawn. Conversely a break above the £58 area would trigger a buy imho.

sabretoothtigger

double top

I thought as much. They say the depth of M to bottom of its middle is the size of the move below, so that'd give a move of one thousand points from 5500 to 4500
or so they say! Again that does point to Feb 2010 price region




I dont know if this is going to move BP on monday or not. I didnt really think it was moving that much just because people were relying on nicer charges

BP likely to face criminal charges over spill

I'd be fairly peeved but anyway I think they still good value at 500p so thats my excuse for holding onto a few of what I had

tradetime

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Its just a few pennies for every hundred shares per day. Most companies move/recalculate the price daily but wont ever charge the spread again, its not a new purchase.

Thanx STT it's the spread is it not, whatever the spread happens to be?
I have an account with GFT, got it years ago and have hardly ever used it, but I did have a rolling bet on the SPX when I first opened it comparing the movement to that of a futures trade, every night the purchase price of the bet changed as they closed the bet and reopened it. Though whether they actually change the price or not is irrelevant if they are adjusting your account by the spread cost it's the same thing.

I'm sure I have seen it written either in Spreadbetting info, or maybe on that naked blokes site that you shouldn't hold a spreadbet over a certain length of time as it becomes uneconimical.

If that is the case, and say the spread on Barclays is 0.5p? and you are betting on 10,000 worth of shares that would work out to £50 a day to hold. Hold it for 30 days and it's £1500, not a figure to be sneezed at. Or have I got this wrong?

cloud_dog

TT, many thanks for your effort, much appreciated.

tradetime

No worries, as I say, not a great deal that is actionable on it currently. Whilst there is nothing technically currently to support this view, I would be remiss in not pointing out that despite all the fervor surrounding precious metals at the moment, much of the money that moved into that space is representative of fear, and the speculative trade that precedes and indeed follows it.
If the economy is really in recovery, and stockmarkets are going higher, that will not be supportive of Gold. Gold is not an investment in my view, it is a hedge or a trading vehicle at best, and as such both fear and speculative money will be redeployed. That is likely to have a knock on effect on the producers.

sabretoothtigger

you shouldn't hold a spreadbet over a certain length of time as it becomes uneconimical.

Thats true but only long term, you ok to swing trade, he means investors.

GFT is the LCG group. They do capitalspreads and also a company who just asked me back with a bonus, paddypower. So Ive dealt with them many times and overnight and I dont remember them charging me spread overnight though maybe I can double check. Email them, its the same back office answering and they are ok

This company Im with now doesnt move anything but all these companies deal similar and similar costs, paperwork varies and slight difference in costs but they all do it like I work out below.
Maybe it all got cheaper since you last used it. Ive been in since 2008 may.



I do Barclay shares so I'll run through my records and copy what it cost me though I dont buy sell such amounts, I would not sleep

17/12/10  09:04  Barclays rolling  100 x  260.7p  = £26,070 lent
17/12/10  09:04  Barclays deposit  10% x  £26,070 = £2,607 cash or my co lends me this free too
17/12/10  18:00  Barclays finance  100 x -0.08  [weekend]
20/12/10  18:00  Barclays finance  100 x -0.03  [daily]
05/01/11  14:40  Barclays rolling -100 x  279p   =  £27,900 repaid

[COLOR="green"][B]Profit is £27,900 - £26,070 =  £1830 
 18 days Finance costs is £54
So your tax free total is £1776[/B][/COLOR]

Total losses possible was £26124 so % profit is 6.8% similar to buying shares
Actual money ventured was £2607 which is a 68% profit on that


   Costs for buying and holding shares would be 
£6 to buy £6 to sell so £12.   If you also realise the spreadbet company taxed you 1% on the fat spread, you lost that however you pay no stamp duty which is 0.5% and you pay no CGT though you can buy Barc in an ISA anyway


[COLOR="Blue"][B]Profit on the same deal in shares is 10k x 260.2p  
10k x 279.5p   
profit £1930

£12 cost to deal
stamp duty = £130
Total = £1788[/B][/COLOR]

A man with 26k burning a hole in his pocket could just buy shares but its pretty close and considering Im buying tiny amounts usually its far better for me to avoid dealing costs


Also LCG shares themselves might be cheap. A company founder dumped his shares when leaving, moving on. Its possibly a undeserved depressed price.
These companies make money when the markets get extreme, their customers (have to) trade more, they make more spread, etc
See IGG also

tradetime

Thanx for that STT, very interesting, in all aspects. Wasn't aware GFT were LCG, I thought they were an a US firm, Global Futures and Forex