UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

Afaik the FED money was a condition set by Barclays to facillitate their taking on the Lehman assets, otherwise the they were going to have to manage another collapse, it looked better if Barclays stepped in and bought a load of assts, than just a collapse. Was pretty shrewd if you ask me, ineesence the FED bought the assts for Barclays with the agreement Barclays would pay them back, thus not impacting their capital cushion.

sabretoothtigger

Heres Barc debt I saw today, nothing massive but hopefully they are settled now not like in 2008

U.K. banking giant Barclays Bank PLC sold $2 billion in fixed- and floating-rate bonds Thursday in what was the day's biggest high-grade corporate bond offering.

A $1.25 billion tranche of three-year fixed-rate debt sold at a yield of 2.431%, or 1.35 percentage points over comparable Treasury yields, and a $750 million tranche of three-year floating-rate debt sold at 1.04 percentage points over the three-month London interbank offered rate.

Someone like microsoft can borrow for under 1% cost now

Sold some Barc at 280. Thinking I should probably sold more that I got on lows but no rush I guess.

I have Dollar breaking upwards. Have to wait and see if it does continue up as that is what a breakout is supposed to do.
Also I have Crude oil in a downward channel with today its decline from 2pm marking the top of that.
That was partly why I sold off most of my BP holding on the highs today


HL let me know I can buy CSCO directly if I like even within a SIPP. However its much the same as CDI I think and I decided the main risk from holding would be the currency so why dont I just hold a position via spreadbet company.
Its tax free and they only care about the price not the actual worth of the dollar so I dont have to worry that our exchange rate is getting trashed right now.

Of course I would lose on gains in dollar longer term but Iam bearish on that. I do see sterling as being generally better positioned .
Anyhow I do actually hold a big USA natural gas company Cheasapeake already. They done ok only just recently, instead of selling them now for still fairly small profit I will use them as a counterbalance to my plan with Cisco

Besides until I can buy back shell or BG group I really lack exposure to energy except from explorers

Also Barclays again bought 2tn units of gas off CHK apparently at a nice price I think


This futures trader is spinning in circles trying to figure is Nasdaq a double top (bearish) or breaking upwards http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIJWEsgNuYI


Also I set my homepage (click my name) to a quick link of charting all the worlds largest tech companies - http://yhoo.it/h0HNkf They doing really well



On CEY I saw it today fall back, nice opportunity (it then rose). I know I should buy it more but since I do see dollar possible up and therefore gold possibly down I got to just keep my hands in my pockets on that for now I guess.

EMED up 20%, very nice and good volume. I still expect some fallback, surely not upto 20 just now ?
[it can now go in an ISA plus canada likes them? ]

RRL doing very good, I think it can go some more. Its just reached back to recent highs, in a much steadier way it should continue. ASX questioned rrl why they doing so well, they not quite sure :laugh:


PMG pulling back as they should after tripling on just dana staff joining. Not quite certain when to pick some, 15 i guess adding more on lower.

BNC buying more tommorow, very cheap. Euro is weak but I reckon sterling is no angel either.

lvader

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

HL let me know I can buy CSCO directly if I like even within a SIPP. However its much the same as CDI I think and I decided the main risk from holding would be the currency so why dont I just hold a position via spreadbet company.
Its tax free and they only care about the price not the actual worth of the dollar so I dont have to worry that our exchange rate is getting trashed right now.

Of course I would lose on gains in dollar longer term but Iam bearish on that. I do see sterling as being generally better positioned .

I see the USD outperforming the Euro and Pound this year, so I'm happy to tale the currency risk. Also Cisco are paying dividends this year so I'll take that as well.

sabretoothtigger

True, dividends I only just realised are not payable on contracts. I hold santander on a march contract, no wonder it was so cheap :laugh:

I mostly hold BNC shares though.
The daily rollover on any share does pay the dividend. But anyhow, if they suddenly switch to paying it will show in the price. I guess I could get some profit from a sale before ex-div

.
I had been looking for some kind of equity pullback but nothing much happening even when the Euro is diving. I will scale into cisco, I already hold a global tech fund

(I generally think dollar is in really bad shape and falsely inflated, not sure when its going to get a stitch)






1 trillion dollars in 100 dollar bills. Usa debt is 14x this, uk is about 2x say

tradetime

so why dont I just hold a position via spreadbet company.

I've often wondered how that works. Spreadbets on stocks work on a daily rolling bet, so the bet is "rolled over" every night. When I roll a futures contract, say from the March to June contract, I sell the March to the bid and buy the June from the ask, thus commissions aside the roll costs the spread. If a stock spreadbet is rolled every night, then surely you are losing the spread every night, and it wouldn't be long before it wouldn't be cost effective?

JonnyBravo

cloud_dog wrote: »

The shallows are relatively cheap to drill and they are fully funded (I think there are four remaining out of 12/13).

The shallows are all about reserves, with increased reserves they mitigate the risk with the debt, it puts them in a stronger position regarding a farm in or raising capital for the deeps.

But..... it is more wait and see. Having said that MXP are now likely to be releasing a nRNS every two weeks for the next three months so......... let the good times roll :cool:

Yep but ASK is almost an "intermediate". Hence why they got the ZJ-40 rig.
It seems as if the tax ruling has allowed them to stick to plans but before everything seemed really shaky. Perhaps it was just the perception (my perception?) rather than the reality.

The worry has to be about raising money for the deeps though. These shallows will take many years to pay off the debts and they don't have that long before they HAVE to drill a deep or lose them.
The money I fear will come from a placing and with the size of the debt I fear the raising will be at a large discount to current price.

I'm out and not getting back in.
They needed more success with the drills in 2010 to keep me happy.
They cannot afford to lose the deeps and yet they can't afford to wait til they can afford to drill them.
(Interesting to note all talk of farm-out has all but died too, the other parties wanted too much it seems)
MXP remains a high risk share (as it was last yr when I was a holder) but even more so than last yr in my book

tradetime

tradetime wrote: »

Update on my positions from last year exited all my SLV on reaching the $30 target, exited RGLD only made a few dollars on that, it didn't really perform as well as the metal. Exited 50% of swing longs on SPX prior to the Christmas holiday and now re-entering, still expecting 1352 on SPX.
UK wise am long Aviva, Barclays, Royal Dutch Shell, iShares FTSE100 tracker. My expectations at the moment are for the continued recovery in markets.

Swapped position yesterday from ISF to MIDD.

Still looking for resolution of the possible double top on the Nas, behavior so far would suggests an upside resolution, but jumping the gun would be risky.

cloud_dog

JonnyBravo wrote: »

The worry has to be about raising money for the deeps though. These shallows will take many years to pay off the debts and they don't have that long before they HAVE to drill a deep or lose them.
The money I fear will come from a placing and with the size of the debt I fear the raising will be at a large discount to current price.

They cannot afford to lose the deeps and yet they can't afford to wait til they can afford to drill them.
(Interesting to note all talk of farm-out has all but died too, the other parties wanted too much it seems)

Payments from the shallows don't need to pay off the debt the recoverable reserves mereely need to be confirmed so as to support the debt (which I believe it will with UTS let alone the remaining 4 shallows).

They have definately moved from a farm-out to going alone and again the reserves from the shallows will provide support in that undertaking.

I am convinced there will be a placing, unfortunately its unlikely to be a RI but Mac are backing them and they have agreed extentions to the licence

JonnyBravo wrote: »

MXP remains a high risk share (as it was last yr when I was a holder) but even more so than last yr in my book

I won't dissagree with the high risk comment but I think they have been de-risked significantly with the news during December (interest / bond payment deferral) and with the potential now of UTS being significant there is hope.

cloud_dog

Sabre, aren't you a bit of a dabbler with RRS?

Its just that historically I've avoided them because I always thought they were overpriced but with the recent fall in SP (Ivory Coast related) was thinking they might be a good hedge for my slightly over exposed POG position (reduce my 23% of portfolio).

Any thoughts, any TA comments on RRS anyone????

tradetime

cloud_dog wrote: »

Any thoughts, any TA comments on RRS anyone????

Will take a look later, don't know how the price of producers compares to the metal currently, but I would expect them to correct with gold going forwards.