UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Welcome back TT
I was thinking JPM had kidnapped you, Ive been reading far too many silver threads. Happy New year

Shanghai composite is actually down this year

Yea its been sluggish since summer of 2009 I think. If we look at the western stocks too, they also stopped outperforming gold at that point also.

So its about currency again, same time Shanghai goes down I think their currency is going up. I think they raised rates 6 times, last was xmas day.

Japan displays something similar though it did well Nov till recently, if you lose money on the stocks as we are foreigners it still shows as a gain when their Yen goes up. Thats partly why I hold lots there, Nikkei never really falls much measured in pounds

Two markets up tons (about double ftse) are asia pacific and also india I think. They gain on currency and stocks so I think they more liable to corrections


I done ok this last year. Way too hesitant in February though it was a proper knock down thats no excuse not to keep looking for value.
I did buy HOC in feb but sold it far too early
I wasnt wrong to sell exactly but I should/could have bought some back after it fell, hopefully Ive learnt its ok to reenter previous winners 'early'

Recently been looking at Cisco as undeservedly beat up. Its modern infrastructure, able to deal wireless and is over 15% asia based. Also first time in 20 years will pay a Div

Spy vs silver
FTSE silver

cloud_dog

Sabre, do you still hold you CEY? Lots of anecdotal evidence comming to light that they may well achieve [beat] their lower revised production numbers for the quarter and therefore full year.

The reason this would be big news is that for CEY to beat the (revised down) full year number they will now be producing an annualised figure of between 300k and 360k oz pa, could make for an interesting SP for 2011.

If you are looking for another golddie, possibly another CEY but 2 years behind have a look at NYO (buy avg 17p, current 29p), PEA and PFS scheduled for January. They had to put the PEA back as they hit new large intersections which meant re-evaluating the PEA.

They have a huge exploration area and are fast tracking production for the current area (possibly 2m oz). The area they have been defining can be best described as........... If you imagine their licence area to be a football pitch, and then if you focus in on the penalty area, the drilled area is the penalty spot. (Can't take the credit for the analogy).

sabretoothtigger

I read they have to refine a ton of earth to get a gram of pure gold. If they hit the back of the net first time its going to help cashflow no end.

I imagine a miner which falters will have to borrow far more, dilute the shares and strain the confidence of investors at the same time.
Thats not really the case with pog or cey is it, they got the gold location just not the best technique or momentum to the process yet.
Im not certain what is their current recorded production figures and estimate for Q4. Also cost of production will figure, whats pea and pfs exactly

Iam a bit light on the background or schedule to these shares often hence why I do take profits and try to work off the chart to rebuy at a lower price.
Election strife in west africa ivory coast has knocked CLF and RRS a bit I think

I sold all of CEY end of August for 173. I was scaling back in when it went to 200, held:o. bought more for 160 and sold some of that this week for about mid way 176.
I own about half of CEY compared to 6 months ago Taken the money to ABG and others [ESSAR is up about 50% , the other ftse IPO]


CEY lows in DEC were the 200 day moving average or 40 week average price. This coincided with previous support.
The graph shape has been mostly sideways since Nov 09, its up but mostly just idling.
Had they continued at the rate of 2009 they'd be over 300 now
Even taking 2010, had they stayed true to this years linear price growth, price should be well within 200's

Gold price positive so would seem to confirm they should rise on good production figures. Data is in January then

tradetime

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Welcome back TT
I was thinking JPM had kidnapped you, Ive been reading far too many silver threads. Happy New year

Hey STT, thanx lol. Happy New Year to you too. I see the PM threads going at it, always funny to watch the effects of emotion on judgement. We do ourselves no favours when we allow emotion to interfere with trading, but that's a whole subject in itself. Hopefully 2011 will be another great year.

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I read they have to refine a ton of earth to get a gram of pure gold.

This is where its a bit anecdotal. Thoughts are that they may be averaging 2 to 3g per ton. There are reports from government official stating that in one week CEY produced a quarter of a ton of gold (about 8000 oz). If we extrapolate this out you are looking at about 30k oz per month (possibly for Nov and Dec).

Also we have a ministry person quoted as saying that CEY will produce 170k oz this year, unconfiemd by the company (obviously).

There were links on the iii board to local newspaers which ran the above comments but I cannot find them atm, so its all abit subjective and possibly mis-reporting but offers an exciting January.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I imagine a miner which falters will have to borrow far more, dilute the shares and strain the confidence of investors at the same time.

Thats not really the case with pog or cey is it, they got the gold location just not the best technique or momentum to the process yet.
Im not certain what is their current recorded production figures and estimate for Q4

CEY did a small placing very recently and the reason for placing has been very vague, so waiting on confirmation as to its real use.

POG is a slightly different fish, whereas CEY is well valued POG is undervalued but it keeps missing its targets hence the low PE compared to its peers. It must hit / beat its reduced target for this year otherwise I can see the shares taking a beating.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Also cost of production will figure, whats pea and pfs exactly

PEA - Preliminary Economic Assessment. I believe this will take in to consideration all data regarding the licence area.

PFS - Pre-Feasibility Study. This will provide an indication of the costs / returns for an initial mining operation based on lode 1 and 2 of their drilling area. I think the PFS will not include data found recently.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Had they continued at the rate of 2009 they'd be over 300 now.

Even taking 2010, had they stayed true to this years linear price growth, price should be well within 200's

Yes, CEY SP has lagged other goldies recently due to their liner issues which has affected production and led to the lowered FY production numbers.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Gold price positive so would seem to confirm they should rise on good production figures. Data is in January then

Yup, for me January is a big month for CEY, POG, NYO, and MXP.

EDIT: Found one of the articles with the Egyptian Minister of Petroleum (whic h currently oversees mining) commenting on 5.5 tons of gold being produced at Sukari.

tradetime

cloud_dog wrote: »

2010 was good but could have been much better (held too much on the sidelines for too long at times) but, we live and learn.

Looking forward to 2011, a number of the stocks I hold (CEY, MXP, NYO, POG) have news/updates etc scheduled for January so hopefully it will be a good start.

Ah, if there were nothing left to learn, where would the challenge be

StevieJ

Happy New Year to you all.

sabretoothtigger

I had a quick look at NYO's chart. My guess would be 30 as a top and 21 or so as a target buy for those who like them (this is roughly lows of early 2008 and some highs of this year).
They'd need some force to keep going up from here I think



POG is quite a bit messy compared to CEY who I can draw quite a 'neat' chart for. Does this mean I should favour them more



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A price that is neutral / zero velocity while volume declines is fairly bullish especially while gold continues up

CEY did a small placing very recently and the reason for placing has been very vague, so waiting on confirmation as to its real use.

I forgot about that already, hopefully it wasnt for the xmas party
I'll buy some more near 160 if possible

The Minister affirmed that Egypt's production of gold from Al-Sukari mine project at the Eastern Desert will reach 5.5 tons by the end of this year, worth 1 billion pounds at current prices. The mine contains reserves estimated of about $ 20 billion.

government statistics. Its not a democratic country, who knows but no one likes to say bad news in their speech.
The reality for ABG was people were stealing large amounts from the company, very different form their plan.
Until CEY actually delivers in reality, the potential runs them at a discount. I think this is why RRS is so dam expensive, they do deliver in large amounts.



I read the Questor guy recommending Avocet mining also there is HER which is silver

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I had a quick look at NYO's chart. My guess would be 30 as a top and 21 or so as a target buy for those who like them (this is roughly lows of early 2008 and some highs of this year).

21p :eek: I hope not. I can see aupport around the 27p.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

They'd need some force to keep going up from here I think

Oh yes (bags full hopefully).

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

POG is quite a bit messy compared to CEY who I can draw quite a 'neat' chart for. Does this mean I should favour them more

POG have more potential but are higher risk. CEY still have some SP growth in them and they do 'tend' to deliver. I have a target of 250p for CEY. If [when] they get there I'#m gonna be flumuxed as I wount know what to do. Have held them and traded them for so long (since mid teens) that I've kinda got attahced to them. At some point they will have to change from a growth story and start paying divi's.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I forgot about that already, hopefully it wasnt for the xmas party
I'll buy some more near 160 if possible

Don't take this the wrong way but.... I hope you don't see 160p

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I think this is why RRS is so dam expensive, they do deliver in large amounts.

RRS is POGs nearest peer production wise (if only it would stop messing around) but, as you say, RRS can maintain such a high ratio because it consistently delivers.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I read the Questor guy recommending Avocet mining also there is HER which is silver

Funnily enough HER is what I'm researching at this precise moment.

worldtraveller

blinko wrote: »

geez i would avoid DES tghats a gamble not a stock its goingnuts in the falklands there are better shares out there

blinko wrote: »

i woudl avoid DES for teh moemtn, they are easily fully priced same with RKH, wait for some bad news or go in 3 - 4 weeks before a drilling etc

Good calls! Down over 20% today alone, and around 35% since your posts above at the end of September, which were near it's peak of around 180.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/04/desire-petroleum-abandons-falklands-well